Humans cannot end the virus, but humans can end the epidemic. Influenza causes a large number of infections and deaths every year, but humans no longer regard influenza as an epidemic. In addition to the low mortality rate, the key is the oral specific drug “Tamiflu”.
Although it is difficult for drugs to completely control viral infections for epidemics, oral drugs are “game changer” for social psychology. After the effective vaccine establishes the population immune barrier, reduces the number of critically ill patients, reduces the medical run and plays the role of supporting the social system, taking medicine under the pretext can treat mild diseases and reduce the social panic about covid-19 infection. It is a key link to end the epidemic.
The end of the global epidemic will experience the following three nodes: the first node is the end of the Omicron pandemic and the leveling of the global new case curve, the second node is the expansion and delivery of oral drugs, and the third node is the opening of National Aviation plans and the lifting of travel restrictions. The global epidemic may basically end in the second quarter, and the inflationary pressure caused by supply chain disorder and labor gap is also an important turning point.
Risk indication: the variation of virus strain exceeds the expectation; The production and delivery of oral drugs are not as expected; The regional imbalance of oral drug supply exceeded expectations
