In the first week of the year of the tiger, the A-share market showed differentiation. The cumulative weight of capital construction stocks and other financial stocks rose by 3.02% in the cycle; However, affected by the continuous decline of new energy and pharmaceutical biology, the gem index is still callback, down 5.59%, with a slight rise on Wednesday in five trading days. It is worth mentioning that the record index has fallen by more than 20% since its peak in December 2021, entering a technical bear market.
This weekend, there are still major events. What affects the opening of a shares? What are the latest research and judgment of securities analysts? Let’s pay attention together. I hope A-Shares will fall less next week.
top ten events affecting A-Shares over the weekend
1. The central bank’s heavy report! Guide financial institutions to expand credit to better meet reasonable housing demand and release these signals
On February 11, the people’s Bank of China released the report on the implementation of China’s monetary policy in the fourth quarter of 2021. The report shows that in the next stage, prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, strengthen cross cycle regulation, give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, pay attention to sufficient force, accurate force and forward force, not only do not engage in “flood irrigation”, but also meet the reasonable and effective financing needs of the real economy. In accordance with practice, the report analyzes the current economic and financial situation outside China and makes arrangements for monetary policy in the next stage. For the next stage of monetary policy, the report said that on the one hand, we should maintain a reasonable growth of money and credit. On the other hand, we should continue to give full play to the leading role of structural monetary policy tools. In addition, with regard to the future real estate financial policy, the report said that we will firmly adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, adhere to not using real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy, adhere to stabilizing land prices, house prices and expectations, implement the prudent management system of real estate finance, increase financial support for Housing leasing, and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers, Better meet the reasonable housing needs of property buyers and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market.
2. The State Council printed and distributed the plan for promoting agricultural and rural modernization in the 14th five year plan
The work of agriculture, rural areas and farmers is the top priority of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way. This plan is prepared to implement the 14th five year plan for national economic and social development of the people’s Republic of China and the outline of long-term objectives for 2035, give priority to the development of agriculture and rural areas, comprehensively promote rural revitalization and accelerate agricultural and rural modernization. By 2025, the comprehensive grain production capacity will be steadily increased, and the output will remain above 1.3 trillion Jin, so as to ensure the basic self-sufficiency of grains and the absolute safety of rations. Pig production capacity was consolidated and improved, cotton, oil, sugar and aquatic products developed steadily, and other important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) areas maintained a reasonable level of self-sufficiency. The agricultural production structure and regional layout have been significantly optimized, the material, technical and equipment conditions have been continuously improved, the level of scale, intensification, standardization and digitization have been further improved, and the supply capacity of green and high-quality Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) has been significantly enhanced. The industrial chain and supply chain have been optimized and upgraded, and a modern rural industrial system has been basically formed.
3, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) statement: the company’s sanctions by the United States and other malicious rumors have been officially reported to the public security organ
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) issued a statement today that recently, a series of malicious rumors about Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) being sanctioned by the United States, being excluded from the gem weight index, and collapsing with Tesla have emerged on network platforms, causing misunderstanding and misinterpretation in the market and affecting the reputation of enterprises. Rumors are groundless and bad in nature. In order to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of the enterprise, our company has officially reported the case to the public security organ on February 12, 2022, and will investigate the legal responsibility of the rumor mongers according to law. The share price of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has continued to decline recently, with a cumulative decline of more than 17% this week.
Biden warned Putin that Russia would pay a heavy price for invading Ukraine
At an hour long teleconference held on Saturday, US President Biden told Russian President Vladimir Putin that if Russia invades Ukraine, western countries will take decisive and rapid measures to bring extensive pain to Russia and weaken its position in the world. “President Biden made it clear that if Russia further invades Ukraine, the United States will work with our allies and partners to make a decisive response and quickly make Russia pay a heavy price,” the White House said in a statement issued after the two presidents spoke.
The White House said Biden told Putin that the United States was ready for diplomacy and “other situations”. Senior Biden administration officials pointed out that the two had a direct dialogue on all issues publicly raised by the United States. At present, it is not clear whether Putin is willing to take the diplomatic path.
5. CISA: strengthen the supervision of the iron ore market according to law and firmly maintain the fair order of the market
According to the monitoring of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, recently, some mining enterprises violated business ethics and released and hyped false information, which seriously disturbed the fair order of the market and damaged the legitimate interests of market subjects. The iron and Steel Association condemned this. Any behavior and participants that ignore the market law and illegally interfere with the normal operation of the market should be corrected and pay a price for it. A stable and orderly market is conducive to the long-term interests of all parties in the industrial chain and needs to be jointly maintained by all parties. Mining enterprises should operate in good faith and perform their contracts on time; Relevant trade enterprises shall operate in accordance with the law and eliminate malicious speculation, hoarding and other acts; Iron and steel production enterprises should strengthen self-discipline, take the balance of supply and demand as the principle, and grasp the procurement rhythm. China Iron and Steel Industry Association will continue to cooperate with relevant government departments in market monitoring, further strengthen analysis and research, and promote the balanced development of industrial chain and the smooth operation of iron ore market.
6. The State Council: stabilize the pork production capacity at about 55 million tons to prevent ups and downs in production
The State Council issued the “14th five year plan” to promote agricultural and rural modernization after hours on Friday. It is mentioned that we should promote standardized large-scale breeding, stabilize the pork production capacity at about 55 million tons, and prevent the ups and downs of production; Implement the five-year action plan for the development of cattle and sheep, and vigorously develop herbivorous animal husbandry; Strengthen the construction of milk source base and optimize the structure of dairy products.
7. Yu Liang judged that the “black iron era” of the real estate market is coming: Vanke will break the boat and fight back
A “Yu Liang’s concluding speech at Vanke 2022 conference” was released on the night of February 11. Yu Liang mentioned that 2022 is a year for the group to overcome difficulties and fight back, and it is also the beginning of a new era. “Fight back” is either dead or alive, with no intermediate state. Yu Liang said that in the face of the black iron era of the industry, everyone’s income must be significantly reduced this year. Vanke’s organization should also establish new anchor points, and welfare and subsidies should adapt to the black iron era.
8. CSRC: maintain the total amount of cross-border funds of the existing interconnected depositary receipts business
On February 11, the CSRC issued the regulations on the supervision of interconnected depositary receipts business of domestic and foreign stock exchanges, expanding the scope of domestic and foreign stock exchanges participating in interconnected depositary receipts business, focusing on expanding the scope of application, increasing CDR financing arrangements, optimizing continuous supervision and other aspects.
The CSRC said that the total amount of cross-border funds for the existing interconnected depositary receipts business would remain unchanged. On the basis of comprehensively considering the development degree of overseas market, investor protection and supervision level, it will expand to major European markets such as Switzerland and Germany.
9, Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) : it is planned to implement the medium-term dividend in 2021, and distribute a dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares
Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) announcement: the board of directors of the company has formulated and announced the shareholder return plan for the next three years (2022-2024) on January 24. Considering the current operation, development planning, capital status and the consistency of cash dividend policy, the company plans to implement the medium-term dividend in 2021: distribute cash dividend of 10 yuan (including tax) to all shareholders for every 10 shares, no bonus shares, and no conversion of provident fund into share capital, with a total cash dividend of about 5.537 billion yuan.
10. After raising 22.4 billion yuan, he turned around and bought 8 billion fixed deposit
investors: it turns out that the “first brother” of the securities company manages money like this
On February 11, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) announced that it had signed a deposit business with Hua Xia Bank Co.Limited(600015) and purchased three fixed-term deposits, totaling 8 billion yuan. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) all choose the principal guaranteed income type. The expected annualized yield / deposit interest rate is 2.28%, and the total expected income is 36.6067 million yuan.
Some investors laughed and said: ” Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) can earn 36.0667 million.” Some investors commented: “are you not optimistic about the stock market and deposit your money in the bank on a regular basis?”
latest research and judgment of top ten securities companies
1, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : four focus issues concerned by the current market
In the 2022 annual strategy report “return of blue chip”, we proposed that blue chip is the main style throughout the year. After the Spring Festival, the market blue chip market represented by the Shanghai Composite Index has been launched. This issue focuses on the analysis and judgment of the four focus issues currently concerned by the market.
Focus 1: what is the sustainability of the main line of steady growth? We believe that the steady growth policy, infrastructure first, followed by real estate, and after the joint efforts of a number of policies, China’s GDP will return to a potential growth level of about 5.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, which will support the quarterly market of the main line of steady growth.
Focus 2: when will the growth track usher in systematic repair? We believe that the current market style is in the process of transforming from growth to value and will last for at least one quarter; After the three conditions are complete, the growth track in the second quarter is expected to usher in systematic repair.
Focus 3: how does global monetary tightening affect a shares? We believe that under the phased dislocation of China US monetary policy in the first half of the year, the impact of peripheral monetary tightening on A-Shares is mainly at the emotional level, and the actual impact is limited.
Focus 4: how to grasp market opportunities at the current time point? We suggest that we stick to the blue chip style throughout the year, closely follow the value blue chip main line catalyzed by the steady growth policy, and continue to focus on the active layout of “two low positions”.
2. Monarch strategy: wait for March
general trend study and judgment: wait for March in spring. the market fluctuated upward this week, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.02% and returned to 3450 points. We believe that in the short term, the market is still dominated by weak consolidation in the process of digesting negative factors, but there is no need to be pessimistic. In March, with the upward repair of positive factors, the market will gradually recover. 1) the negative impact of overseas liquidity still needs to be digested. in January, the US CPI climbed to 7.5% year-on-year, a 40 year high. The 50bp interest rate increase in March is expected to be further strengthened, and the US bond interest rate stands at the 2% mark. In the short term, the US inflation level is expected to rise in February, and the Chinese market still needs to continue to absorb the negative impact of the rapid fluctuation of overseas interest rate hike expectations. But looking further back, with the weakening of US economic data and the peaking of inflation, the expectation of interest rate increase is expected to peak in the first quarter. At the same time, the FOMC meeting in March will also reduce the uncertainty of liquidity expectation periodically, and the negative impact of overseas liquidity expectation in March will accelerate and weaken. 2) focus on the two anchors of risk appetite, and the positive factors will be gradually revised. under the current steady growth, the infrastructure strength or local debt problem and the recovery of real estate, as the core leading of the wide credit slope in the future, will become two important anchors of market risk appetite. At present, although the structural problems still exist in the social finance data in January, the total amount exceeds the expectation, which has shown a positive signal, and the wide credit is on the way. In the future, with the approach of the national two sessions in March, the steady growth policy will be accelerated, and the infrastructure and real estate are expected to be gradually repaired. On the whole, there is no need to be pessimistic about the short-term weak consolidation of the market. In March, with the upward repair of positive factors, the market will gradually warm up and actively increase positions in the beginning of the year.
focus on the two anchors of risk appetite. the current market risk appetite index has declined rapidly, indicating that the bottom of the market is gradually clear. So is the market risk appetite expected to improve in the next stage, and what is the time and space for the rise? We believe that the core link point of current risk preference is the rhythm of wide credit in the future, and local bonds and real estate, as the leading factors of wide credit, will become an important observation anchor point of risk preference. Looking back, under the demand of stable growth, the upward repair direction of the anchor of risk preference is determined, but the slope still needs to be continuously observed, which also determines the space for market recovery. 1) determination of anchor repair direction of risk preference. on the one hand, under the strong demand for steady growth, infrastructure will be an important starting point. On the other hand, the recent introduction of national measures for the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds has ensured the flexibility of the use of commercial housing pre-sale funds and will become a catalyst for the expected improvement of real estate . 2) However, under the tone of curbing new local implicit debt, the credit expansion of local governments is limited, and the upward revision slope still needs to be continuously observed. from the disclosed work plans of the local government supervision bureaus of the Ministry of Finance for 2022, the monitoring, prevention and resolution of hidden debt risk is still the core.
structural configuration: force along the undervalued value and value style. at present, there are two new ways in front of investors. On the one hand, the cost performance of track companies has gradually increased after continuous adjustment. On the other hand, under the warming expectation of steady growth, the allocation value in the direction of undervalued value such as consumption and infrastructure has increased. From the perspective of DDM, the current mid-term inflection point of liquidity expectation at the denominator end has emerged, which makes the valuation end do not have the basis for comprehensive rise, and it is difficult for us to earn the excess return brought by the denominator end. In the next stage, the core of the excess return of the market will come from the marginal change at the molecular end. At this time, we should focus on the direction of early profit damage and valuation repair power. The positive feedback mechanism of fundamentals will further determine the slope of valuation repair, especially the direction of profit reversal or marginal improvement. At present, the undervalued sector with consumption and infrastructure chain as the core has the above advantages. In the future, the market will still flow to a lower level and accelerate the switching to the undervalued style. In addition, in the dimension of value growth, under the current low market risk preference and high uncertainty of the economic environment, value will still dominate at this stage, and the opportunity to grow, especially track companies, still needs to wait for the recovery of risk preference.
3. CICC | A shares: Policy reinforcement, main line “steady growth”
We believe that the current adjustment range of growth stocks may have been large, but the adjustment of investors’ risk appetite under the background of the lack of short-term positive catalyst may take time. China’s steady growth is still in force, and the market focus may continue to be in the related fields of “steady growth”; In addition, overseas markets are also reflecting the impact of global monetary tightening, restricting the performance of the global overvalued growth sector.
We judge that when China’s growth expectation is gradually stabilized and the overseas market responds to monetary tightening to a certain extent, the market style may gradually meet the conditions for returning to the growth style. It is preliminarily estimated that the time point may be around the beginning of the second quarter, and the follow-up needs to be continuously updated according to the actual progress.
On the whole, we believe that there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the Chinese market. Historically, under the background of relatively low market and low expectations, there have been more than expected credit and social finance increments. The cycle from two to three months has a positive impact on the market. If these indicators have a certain sustainability, it will be more obvious. The improvement of forward-looking indicators is conducive to the improvement of growth expectations. In terms of style, we believe that “steady growth” is still the main line of the future stage. The space for sharp decline in growth style may be relatively limited, but we may not be in a hurry to bottom.
Industry configuration suggestions: the steady growth style may continue, and the manufacturing growth is waiting for a turnaround
1) areas potentially supported by marginal policy changes or efforts, including infrastructure, industrial chains related to stable demand for real estate (building materials, construction, household appliances, home appliances, etc.), brokerage finance, etc;
2) for the middle and lower reaches consumption that has been adjusted in 2021, the valuation is not high, and the medium and long-term prospects are still clear, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, the Internet, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, medicine, etc;
3) under the background of the positive progress of the epidemic, the aviation airport, catering tourism, offline entertainment and other sectors may receive phased attention;
4) the manufacturing growth sectors with large growth last year, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, have been adjusted, but it may not be the time to fully intervene.
4. Tianfeng strategy: how does the index and style behave before and after the five large-scale social finance?
In the past 10 years, there has been a single month pulse of credit (Social Finance / credit) in the relative bottom position of credit, and the market performance before and after the release date of financial data (generally 10-15 of the next month) is analyzed.
According to the market performance before and after the five obvious single month credit pulses in June of 2012, June of 2014, January of 2016, January of 19 and March of 20, we can get the following rules:
(1) in the 30 trading days before the credit pulse, the overall market fell, the steady growth direction performed better, and the undervalued value was relatively resistant to decline.
The logic behind this is that the credit cycle ultimately affects the valuation direction of A-Shares by affecting residual liquidity and profit expectations (see Figure 1). After a large amount of credit, there will generally be an oversold rebound, but whether it can form a trend should be considered in combination with profitability and valuation position. For details, please refer to our previous in-depth report “two dimensional framework of” credit profit “: resumption and prospect”.
(2) 60 trading days after the credit pulse, the market rose as a whole. Generally, the growth of medium and small cap was dominant or the style was relatively balanced.
(3) specific details of short-term style change: Finance / cycle / value first, and then growth. For a period of time after the date of data release, the market is often dominated by finance, cycle and value (in most cases, it continues the previous style trend); The inflection point is about 10 trading days after the date of data release. After that, the growth style will rebound (12 years, 14 years, 16 years) or even dominate the trend (19 years, 20 years).
(4) more medium and long-term style research and judgment: looking at the style trend in the next six months to more than one year, it mainly depends on whether there are more high boom emerging industries, that is, the relative performance trend of growth and value. Among them, only in 16 years, the blue chip sector driven by the monetization of shed reform and supply side reform continued to dominate, resulting in the dominance of undervalued blue chips in the medium and long-term market style.
5. Haitong strategy: Micro infrastructure and structural opportunities of shaking the city
Core conclusion: ① over the past 21 years, the rise and fall of major industries in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 have been out of sync, and the index fluctuates. ② Under the background of the era of equity investment, allocated funds will enter the market. It is expected that the supply and demand of A-share funds will be balanced in 22 years to support the shock market. ③ The steady growth spring market will not be absent. In terms of structure, value first and then growth, such as undervalued financial real estate, new energy and digital economy of new infrastructure.
We believe that there is still spring Market in the volatile market. The specific reasons are as follows:
First, the policy effect of steady growth has gradually emerged. According to the latest social finance data, the increment of social finance in January reached 6.17 trillion, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year, of which loans to the real economy increased by 4.2 trillion, which is a monthly statistical high, which verifies that the policy is being implemented. In terms of monetary policy, in the early stage, the central bank lowered MLF, SLF and LPR interest rates. Compared with the third quarter, the central bank’s monetary policy report in the fourth quarter of 21 added positive statements such as “we should give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, and pay attention to sufficient force, accurate force and forward force”. In terms of real estate policy, on February 8, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on excluding the loans related to affordable rental housing from the concentration management of real estate loans, which made it clear that the loans related to affordable rental housing projects were not included in the concentration management of real estate loans, and encouraged financial institutions to increase their support for the development of affordable rental housing; Over the past 22 years, Hefei, Kunming, Zhuhai and other cities have introduced different house purchase subsidy policies to inject fresh vitality into the real estate market.
Second, after reviewing the history, it is found that the spring market of A-Shares has never been absent in the past 20 years. The reason behind this is that the end of the year and the beginning of the year are often the time window for major meetings. At the same time, there is little disclosure of fundamental data of A-Shares from November to March, and the capital interest rate usually drops at the beginning of the year, and the risk appetite of investors at the beginning of the year is relatively higher. During the previous spring market, the average maximum increases of CSI 300 and Shanghai composite index were 24% and 22% respectively (see Table 3 for details). In addition, in 10, 11 and 16 years, the Shanghai Stock Index experienced a January decline similar to the current market, but the index will rise in the first quarter after these three declines.
In addition, the recent deterioration of Russian Ukrainian relations has caused some disturbance to the sentiment of the capital market. The VIX panic index soared to the highest point of 31 on Friday, and the price of gold as a safe haven asset also rose rapidly. Comex gold rose 1.24% on Friday, the main index of US stocks fell significantly on Friday, the NASDAQ index fell 2.8% and the S & P 500 fell 1.9%. We reviewed the performance of global assets during regional conflicts in history in “how do large categories of assets react during regional conflicts? – 20220125”. We can find that even if international conflicts occur, the impact on large categories of assets is actually limited for a long time. Therefore, we don’t think we need to worry too much.
6. Investment promotion strategy: positive growth rate of new social finance and A-share turnaround
Since the beginning of the year, the rapid narrowing of China US interest rate spread and the deterioration of the chip structure of A-Shares have led to the adjustment of a shares. In January, the total amount of new social finance in China exceeded expectations, and the growth rate of new social finance has become positive. Historically, new social finance saw the bottom of A-Shares in the month or quarter after the growth rate became positive, and the difference in time lag was mainly due to the RMB exchange rate. In the departure stage of loose internal and tight external monetary policies between China and the United States, there is pressure on the RMB exchange rate to depreciate. Until the Federal Reserve releases the dove signal, the interest rate gap between China and the United States stabilizes and expands again, the A shares will not bottom out and return to the upward trend. At present, the continuous higher than expected inflation in the United States has strengthened the expectation of raising interest rates by 50bp in March, the yield of US bonds has risen rapidly, the interest rate gap between China and the United States has narrowed to 80bp, and the concerns of RMB devaluation and capital outflow have suppressed the risk appetite of a shares. We believe that after the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in March, the market will further observe whether the Federal Reserve will have more hawkish actions. If there is marginal easing, the US bond yield will decline, the interest rate gap between China and the United States will expand again, and A-Shares may return to the upward cycle.
Looking forward to the whole year, we maintain the view that A-Shares are stable before rising and similar to “√”, and we can focus on “undervalued +” and depression strategy throughout the year. In addition to the valuation and repair market in traditional fields, the steady growth direction should also focus on the undervalued sectors in new infrastructure (new energy infrastructure and digital infrastructure).
7. Southwest strategy: three main lines of A-share dilemma reversal under Tianliang social finance
on February 10, the people’s Bank of China released financial statistics and social financing data. The credit and social financing data in January hit a record high, which was significantly higher than the consensus expectation of wind. the new RMB loans in January reached 3.98 trillion, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year, and the new social finance in January was 6.17 trillion, an increase of 18.9% year-on-year. In contrast, wind unanimously expects only 3.77 trillion and 5.44 trillion. It can be said that the current published data is far beyond market expectations. This shows the determination and confidence of the current decision-making level in steady growth.
of course, it should be pointed out that although the liquidity relaxation is better than expected to some extent, the market will still maintain a structural market. there are three main reasons: first, although the absolute value of social finance is a historical quantity, the year-on-year growth rate is not high. Second, the liquidity data released by the central bank was in January, which has been partially reflected in the rise of the steady growth sector. therefore, after the data of credit expansion came out, the market reaction was not strong. For the growth sector, on the one hand, the valuation is indeed full, on the other hand, the fear of the US science and technology war has suppressed the valuation space. The funds are disgusted with uncertainty and lack confidence. It is not enough to solve the market doubts by releasing water. Third, judging from the current inflation situation in the United States and the attitude of the Federal Reserve, China is not allowed to continue to release water. the US interest rate will probably start to increase in March, and will continue to increase interest rates later. The degree of increase depends on the specific inflation situation, which compresses the space for China to release water.
investment strategy: at present, A-Shares are indeed in a “dilemma”, and “under the flood” also needs to lower expectations. But does this mean that A-Shares have no chance? We don’t think so. At present, there are at least three areas with opportunities for A-share Jedi assault. One is the “dilemma reversal” of the epidemic damaged sector. mainly includes business tourism and other fields. second, the dilemma reversal of “stable growth” related sectors. mainly in construction, building materials, raw materials, real estate and other sectors. These sectors win in low valuation, low institutional expectations and low allocation proportion. However, with the introduction of the policy of steady growth, the market’s expectations for it gradually increased. third, it is the sector with stable performance growth and relatively low valuation in the performance forecast. in contrast, this direction is more decentralized and focuses more on bottom-up stock selection.
8. Cinda strategy: why is the stock market more stable and weaker
The credit and social finance data released last week exceeded the consensus expectations of the market, which is another strong evidence of the continuous promotion of the steady growth policy since the central economic work conference last year. The weaker the stock market, but why? We believe that the current profits of enterprises are generally not very good at the initial stage of steady growth, so valuation is particularly important. Compared with the stable growth in history, the Pb of all a (non-financial petroleum and petrochemical) is higher this time. At present, the Pb is 2.7 times. At the end of 2008, the middle of 2014 and Q4 of 2018, the overall A shares fell below 2 times Pb. The overall valuation did not reach the extreme value, so it is difficult for the stock market to get rid of the impact of profitability. Strategically, 2022 will be a compressed version of 2018-2019, with the first half similar to 2018 and the second half similar to 2019. The rebound after the Spring Festival is a tactical rebound. The main catalyst is “steady growth policy promotion + performance window period + oversold rebound”. Under optimistic circumstances, the rebound can last until the two sessions.
(1) the strategic impact of steady growth this time is less than Q1 in 2019, because the valuation positions are different. The credit and social finance data released last week exceeded the consensus expectations of the market, which is another strong evidence of the continuous promotion of the steady growth policy since the central economic work conference last year. However, the index has been declining since the central economic work conference last year. We believe that there are two main reasons. First, compared with the stable growth in history, the Pb of all a (non-financial petroleum and petrochemical) is higher this time, and the current Pb is 2.7 times. At the end of 2008, the middle of 2014 and Q4 of 2018, A-Shares fell below 2 times Pb as a whole. After steady growth, the index rose well. Interestingly, the impact of steady growth in 2008 and 2014 on the economy is completely different. After 4 trillion yuan in 2008, the economy stabilized and began to recover rapidly in one quarter. However, after steady growth in 2014, the macro economy continued to decline for more than one year and did not stabilize until the first half of 2016.
Second, in the early stage of steady growth, the current profits of enterprises are generally not very good. The important reason behind the emergence of steady growth is that the economy has fallen to the middle. At this time, the biggest feature is that the economic decline gradually begins to affect the profits of industrial enterprises. At this time, it is often difficult for investors in the secondary market to find industries whose performance can exceed expectations.
(2) the decrease of interest rate ≠ the increase of stock market funds. Another impact of steady growth on the market is that with the promotion of monetary easing, the capital interest rate of the real economy will decline, which may lead to the increase of stock market funds. However, we believe that the relationship between the two is unstable. In the downward cycle of interest rate in 2008, residents’ funds were decreasing, and residents’ funds rebounded until the interest rate rebounded in 2009. In the downward cycle of interest rates from Q4 in 2011 to Q2 in 2012, residents’ funds are constantly leaving the market. In the downward cycle of interest rate in Q2 from 2014 to 2016, residents’ funds were inflow in the first half (2014-2015q2) and outflow in the second half (2015q3-2016). In the downward interest rate cycle of Q2 from 2018 to 2020, the outflow of residents’ funds in the first half (2018) and the inflow of residents’ funds in the second half (2019).
Because it affects residents’ funds, in addition to interest rates, there are also profit-making effects and regulatory policies. In the short-term dimension, the impact of money making effect is more important. If the market valuation is very low (such as 2014), even if the profit is poor, the profit-making effect of the stock market will not decline. Once the interest rate decreases, the incremental capital of the stock market will be a lot. The positive impact of low interest rates on the stock market is not likely to have a significant impact on the valuation of residents, but if the interest rate does not fall for a long time, it will not have a significant impact on the stock market.
(3) short term strategy: the rebound in February is still on the way. Looking ahead, strategically, 2022 will be a compressed version of 2018-2019, with the first half similar to 2018 and the second half similar to 2019. The rebound after the Spring Festival is tactical, and the main catalyst is “steady growth policy promotion + performance window period + oversold rebound”. Although the index opened higher and went lower after the credit exceeded expectations last week, we think the rebound is not over. On the one hand, before the two sessions, the policy rate of steady growth will probably be more. On the other hand, February is the performance window period, which will last until mid March.
9. BOC strategy: growth is still in the dark stage before dawn
1) the market has entered the risk avoidance mode, paying attention to undervaluation and ignoring high growth . The current trend of the A-share market is in line with the U-shaped judgment in our 22 year strategy. Overseas stagflation and contraction are the main source of fluctuation. The main reason for the short-term growth underperforming value is that the tightening expectations caused by US inflation exceeding expectations are heating up, the US bond yield breaks “2”, and the market is forced to enter the risk avoidance and defense mode, pay more attention to the safety margin of undervaluation, and choose to ignore high performance growth. The growth of static relative overvalued value represented by “Ning combination” is under pressure; In contrast, the financial and aviation sectors are doing well.
2) and passive switching . The high credit growth in January has played a supporting role in the valuation of a shares. From the historical summary, the excess return of the counter cyclical value sector is relatively clear; However, the relative strength of value does not come from the comparative advantage of performance, but more from policy arbitrage and market pressure on valuation. Considering that the rise of the undervalued sector since December last year has been repaired to near the historical average of the rebound range, the risk return of style switching at the current time point is equal. In other words, the advantage of value is set off by the disadvantage of growth. The market switching is a passive response to the increase of income gap, rather than optimistic about the sector from the performance trend.
3) bulk capping and growth troubles . The trouble of growth comes from the peak of bulk prices, and it is difficult to reduce inflation expectations. Whether it is industrial products or energy and chemical products, the current bulk price strength is more from the contraction of short-term supply level, and the form of long-term discount is more obvious. The bulk price supported by supply factors alone is difficult to sustain. Looking ahead, there have been signs of improvement in the global supply chain recently. With the cyclical decline of the demand side, it is only a matter of time for the balance of supply and demand and even reversal. Once the bulk top confirms the inflection point of inflation expectation, the squeeze of tightening on growth valuation will also come to an end. Historically, any macro level fluctuation will form an effective buying point for the pressure of high growth sectors.
4) on the whole, market anxiety spread, and the pressure for investors to stick to growth increased . The external factors that squeeze the growth valuation have not been removed, and the gap between value and growth income will increase in the short term, growth is still in the dark stage before dawn . Investors should consider the capital attributes and constraints and make rational judgments. For investors with a long-term focus and light constraints, the left layout of growth technology is becoming more and more prominent on the premise that the performance trend remains unchanged; For investors pursuing relative returns, reducing positions and switching are both expedient measures. Once the subsequent mood turns better, technology breakthrough is still one of the best choices.
10. Guangdong Development Strategy: there is still room for agitation in spring, and continue to grasp the main line of steady growth
1) from the perspective of macro input variables, the current stage is in the liquidity easing stage. Undoubtedly, the trilogy of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates and broadening credit has been fulfilled one by one. According to the latest monetary policy implementation report of the central bank in the fourth quarter, the expression is more positive and the easing expectation is expected to continue. We start from “increasing cross cycle regulation”, “sufficient force” and “moving forward” “Reducing the comprehensive financing cost of enterprises” and “the macro leverage ratio has decreased steadily” can be seen.
2) from the perspective of strategic mapping function, the microstructure of liquidity has not deteriorated, but recently institutions have adjusted their positions and exchanged shares, switching from growth stocks last year to the sector with undervalued weight. The change of liquidity distribution has led to the illusion of market weakness. In fact, the total market value of A shares in February has rebounded compared with that in January. For the future, we should not be pessimistic at present, and there is still room for agitation in spring.
3) from the perspective of the whole year and historical experience (2022 and 2012), in the stage of weak market confidence, the reversal of market trend should be reflected after the initial improvement of fundamentals. Broad currency can not directly reverse the market trend, but there are still opportunities for periodic rebound and market, as expected in our annual strategy report, This year is expected to show an “n” trend with a slowing slope: the spring agitation in the first quarter can be expected (rebound), but the opportunity in the second half of the year is better (reversal).
