The recent measures to maintain the stability of market sentiment such as self purchase of funds have yet to be effective. After the stock prices of the “Mao index” institutions represented by Maotai suffered a short-term continuous decline around the Spring Festival in 2021, a similar scene was staged again at the beginning of 2022 due to the comprehensive influence of various factors.
According to the data of Tonglian, a number of institutional heavy positions led by Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) (603259. SH), Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) (002821. SZ), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750. SZ), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (300274. SZ) recorded a decline of more than 15% in the first week after the Spring Festival.
Among them, there is no lack of seemingly institutional “stampede” flight transactions. On February 10, cro leading stocks Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) plummeted, and the net sales of institutional seats in a single day reached 1.6 billion yuan.
According to the data of the dragon and tiger list on the same day, only the first institutional seats on the list were sold, and the market value of single day shipment reached 1.4 billion yuan, corresponding to the average price of Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) on February 10, which is equivalent to about 16.44 million shares sold.
What are the reasons for the sharp decline in the share price of fund heavy positions at the beginning of the year for two consecutive times? What’s the difference this time?
different asset attributes
The director of the multi asset Strategy Department of Pengyang fund told the first financial reporter that the asset attributes of the two falls were different.
At the beginning of 2021, the individual stocks that fell in the market were mainly stable assets and core assets. There was not much high growth in itself, but the valuation reached an unprecedented height. Since this year, the individual stocks that fell were mainly growth assets with fast profit growth. Of course, the valuation was also high.
In addition, the two asset fundamentals are at different stages. The fundamentals of stocks that fell in 2021, especially consumption and medicine, peaked and fell. The stocks that have fallen since the beginning of this year will still be in the stage of rapid growth, especially the sectors represented by new energy, double carbon and advanced manufacturing. The penetration rate is not high, the policy support is strong, and the certainty of performance growth is high.
After the crash, the matching between valuation and fundamentals has gradually improved. After the market sentiment is stable, it is expected to attract long-term funds to actively layout and stabilize the stock price.
According to the data of choice, in the first week of the opening of the Spring Festival in 2021 (February 22-february 26), a total of 285 stocks in the A-share market fell by more than 10%, with an average market value of 69.558 billion yuan.
in the first week after the opening of the Spring Festival in 2022 (February 7-february 11), a total of 227 stocks in the A-share market fell by more than 10%, with an average market value of 26.941 billion yuan.
After comparing the most representative stocks Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in the two sharp falls, it is found that the background of their share price falls is the same, but the internal logic is different.
According to the Research Report of some securities companies, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is facing a market environment similar to that of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) in the same period in 2021: the logic of rise has been challenged, the yield of US bonds has risen sharply, the share price has soared, and the track is highly crowded, forming a negative feedback of killing more.
Generally speaking, both of them are similar paths: due to various favorable factors, the market is sought after and seriously deviates from the valuation. When the rising logic is challenged, an external catalyst triggers the falling market.
The research report also said that in retrospect, although the trigger for the sharp decline of Maotai in 2021 is the rise of US debt, in addition to the overvalued value, the underlying reason is the repeated epidemic in 2021 and the consumption pressure caused by the decline of economic fundamentals.
This trend has not changed significantly throughout 2021 (of course, the impact of the epidemic on consumption peaked in August 2021, so the food and beverage sector bottomed out at the end of August).
Another institutional heavy position stock Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , whose share price fell sharply in 2022, was more affected by the news. On February 8, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) issued a Clarification Announcement, saying that neither the company nor its subsidiaries were listed in UVL by the U.S. Department of Commerce. The current production and operation of the company is normal.
Basically, on January 18, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) released the performance forecast. The company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 22.819 billion-22.902 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 38.0% to 38.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 4.973 billion-5.032 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 68.0% to 70.0%.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) believes that it is still a period of rapid development of local innovative medicine enterprises. Although it is obvious that the target / indication is homogeneous, it reflects the development of new indications with strong targets. Optimistic about the local clinical CRO benefit from the high demand for research and development of local innovative drugs and the release of more medical resources after the clinical trial filing system brings the further expansion of the clinical CRO market.
China’s monetary policy has changed, and US bond yields have risen sharply
From the macro level, the market before and after the Spring Festival in the past two years is facing a completely different monetary policy environment of the central bank.
After the opening of A-Shares in the Spring Festival in 2021, the central bank returned a total of 260 billion yuan through reverse repurchase and other operations on the first trading day after the festival (February 18, 2021). Some investors worried about the liquidity shift of the central bank, which indirectly suppressed the overall market valuation and index rise.
For a period of time before and after the Spring Festival in 2022, the central bank successively reduced reserve requirements, interest rates and other operations, and the monetary policy showed a marginal easing trend.
On December 6, 2021, the central bank announced to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points; From December 7, 2021, the refinancing interest rate for supporting agriculture and small businesses will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points; On December 20, 2021, the one-year LPR decreased by 5 BP.
On January 17, 2022, the bid winning interest rates of the central bank’s open market operation and medium-term lending convenience operation both fell by 10 basis points to 2.10% and 2.85% respectively, releasing the policy signal of the forward force of prudent monetary policy. On January 20, the LPR of one-year period decreased by another 10 basis points, and the LPR of more than five years decreased by 5 basis points.
Lei, chief research official of Xingshi investment, said that the biggest difference between early 2022 and early 2021 lies in the difference of macro environment. in 2021, China’s policy focuses more on cross cyclical factors such as structural adjustment, while in 2022, China’s policy is “stable”. From the perspective of slightly lengthening the time dimension, under the background of the “active action” of monetary policy and the front force of fiscal policy, China’s economic growth will hit the bottom and pick up. It is expected that the prosperity of more and more industries will improve, and the molecular side is expected to stabilize or support the A-share market.
However, in terms of the external environment, after the two opening markets, they are faced with the challenge of a sharp rise in US bond yields.
According to the data of Donghai Futures Research Institute, the CPI of the United States increased by 7.5% year-on-year in January 2022, and the growth rate accelerated again, which is the highest level since March 1982, 7.3% higher than the expected value and 7.0% higher than the previous value. After the release of US inflation data, the yield of US bonds soared across the board, the yield of 10-year US bonds exceeded 2%, and the yield curve flattened as a whole. From the perspective of forward curve pricing, the market expects the fed to start cutting interest rates in about two years.
During the long Spring Festival holiday in 2021, when the A-share market was closed, the yield of us medium and long-term treasury bonds continued to rise. As of February 16, 2021, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds rose 4.50 basis points to close at 1.2082%, and the yield level reached a new high since the end of February 2020.
Zhang Yingjun, research director of Bodao fund and general manager of fund investment department, told the first financial reporter that if the Fed raises interest rates more than expected, it will first affect the speed of foreign capital flowing into the A-share market; Secondly, the rising attractiveness of US debt will also have a capital diversion effect to a certain extent.
In addition, there are also new variables in China. Since the second half of 2021, the profit demonstration effect of China’s public funds has weakened, which may affect the enthusiasm of capital admission. Therefore, Zhang Yingjun believes that compared with the past three years, the speed of capital inflow into A-Shares in 2022 will weaken, but the trend will continue.
