macro · important news
central bank heavy report! Better meet the reasonable housing needs of property buyers and guide financial institutions to effectively expand credit supply
On February 11, the report on the implementation of China’s monetary policy in the fourth quarter of 2021 (hereinafter referred to as the report) released by the people’s Bank of China showed that in the next stage, the prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, strengthen cross cycle regulation, give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, pay attention to sufficient, accurate and forward force, and do not engage in “flood irrigation”, And meet the reasonable and effective financing needs of the real economy.
finance and securities
the CSRC will optimize the interconnection mechanism of domestic and foreign capital markets! Swiss and German market inclusion
On February 11, the CSRC issued the regulations on the supervision of interconnected depositary receipts business of domestic and foreign stock exchanges (hereinafter referred to as the regulations), which expanded the scope of domestic and foreign stock exchanges participating in interconnected depositary receipts business, focusing on expanding the scope of application, increasing CDR financing arrangements, optimizing continuous supervision and other aspects.
CISA: strengthen the supervision of the iron ore market according to law and firmly maintain the fair order of the market
In view of the recent abnormal changes in iron ore prices, the national development and Reform Commission and the State Administration of Market Supervision recently jointly interviewed relevant iron ore information enterprises, and will send a joint research team to carry out research on iron ore market supervision in some commodity exchanges and key ports, and will take further measures to maintain the normal order of the market. The implementation of these measures shows the firm position and attitude of the government market supervision department to maintain market order, curb market speculation and promote market equity, which will play a positive role in the stable operation and healthy development of the industrial chain and supply chain.
industry · company
the State Council printed and distributed the plan for promoting agricultural and rural modernization in the 14th five year plan
By 2025, the comprehensive grain production capacity will be steadily increased, and the output will remain above 1.3 trillion Jin, so as to ensure the basic self-sufficiency of grains and the absolute safety of rations. Pig production capacity was consolidated and improved, cotton, oil, sugar and aquatic products developed steadily, and other important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) areas maintained a reasonable level of self-sufficiency. The agricultural production structure and regional layout have been significantly optimized, the material, technical and equipment conditions have been continuously improved, the level of scale, intensification, standardization and digitization have been further improved, and the supply capacity of green and high-quality Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) has been significantly enhanced. The industrial chain and supply chain have been optimized and upgraded, and a modern rural industrial system has been basically formed.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) statement: the company’s sanctions by the United States and other malicious rumors have been officially reported to the public security organ
A series of malicious rumors about Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) being sanctioned by the United States, being excluded from the gem weight index and collapsing with Tesla have emerged on the network platform recently, causing misunderstanding and misinterpretation in the market and affecting the corporate reputation, the statement said on the 13th. Rumors are groundless and bad in nature. In order to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of the enterprise, the company has officially reported the case to the public security organ on February 12, 2022, and will investigate the legal responsibility of the rumor mongers according to law.
“die or live”! Yu Liang’s 5000 word speech screen brushing: 2022 “back water battle”
Yu Liang, chairman of the board of directors of Vanke Group, made the latest judgment on the industry trend at the internal annual meeting: the real estate industry has entered the “black iron era”, and it is the inevitable trend of development to reduce the table and clear it, that is, to go to finance. He also stressed that 2022 will be a year for Vanke to overcome its difficulties and fight back, and it is also the beginning of a new era. Fighting back means either dead or alive. There is no middle state. If you can solve the burden accumulated in the past, you have the opportunity to start a new journey. If you can’t get rid of the burden, you can’t live.
focus on this week
subscription of new shares this week
According to the issuance arrangement, four new shares will be applied for this week. The specific application list is as follows:
Monday: West Point pharmaceutical purchase code: 301130
Tuesday: application code of Hongxi Technology: 889777 (Beijing stock exchange)
Wednesday: Han’s CNC purchase code: 301200
Thursday: Hongying intelligent subscription code: 001266
shares lifted this week
Statistics show that a total of 6.06 billion restricted shares of 51 companies will be lifted this week. The market value of the lifted shares is about 283.866 billion yuan, twice that of the lifted shares last week. There are 11 listed companies with more than 100 million shares of restricted shares lifted, of which Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) shares lifted reached 1.716 billion shares, the largest number of restricted shares lifted. There are eight listed companies with a market value of more than 1 billion yuan, of which Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has a market value of 168.407 billion yuan, ranking first.
January PPI fell year-on-year or continued
On February 16, the National Bureau of statistics will release the CPI and PPI data of January. Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) it is expected that in January 2022, CPI will decline to 1.3% year-on-year, and PPI will continue to decline to 9.5% year-on-year.
institutional strategy
CICC: it is preliminarily expected that the A-share market will return to the growth style around the beginning of the second quarter
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) the research report believes that the current adjustment range of growth stocks may be large, but the adjustment of investors’ risk appetite may take time under the background of the lack of short-term positive catalyst. China’s steady growth is still in force, and the market focus may continue to be in the relevant fields of “steady growth”; In addition, overseas markets are also reflecting the impact of global monetary tightening, restricting the performance of the global overvalued growth sector. When China’s growth expectation gradually stabilizes and the overseas market responds to monetary tightening to a certain extent, the market style may gradually meet the conditions for returning to the growth style. It is preliminarily estimated that the time point may be around the beginning of the second quarter, and the follow-up needs to be continuously updated according to the actual progress. On the whole, CICC believes that there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the Chinese market. Historically, under the background of relatively low market and low expectations, there have been more than expected credit and social finance increments, and the cycle from two to three months has a positive impact on the market. If these indicators have a certain sustainability, it will be more obvious. The improvement of forward-looking indicators is conducive to the improvement of growth expectations. In terms of style, “steady growth” is still the main line of the future stage. The space for sharp decline in growth style may be relatively limited, but it may not be in a hurry to copy the bottom.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the impact of peripheral monetary tightening on A-Shares is mainly at the emotional level, and the actual impact is limited
The research report released on February 13 pointed out that the current market style is in the process of transforming from growth to value and will last for at least one quarter; The growth track in the second quarter is expected to usher in systematic repair after the conditions are complete.
Under the phased dislocation of China US monetary policy in the first half of the year, the impact of peripheral monetary tightening on A-Shares is mainly at the emotional level, and the actual impact is limited. It is suggested to stick to the blue chip style throughout the year. At present, we should stick to the main line of value blue chip catalyzed by stable growth policy and continue to focus on the active layout of “two low positions”. At present, the dynamic P / E ratio of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is only 10.9x, which is not high compared with the valuation level and valuation quantile of developed markets. It is unanimously expected that the EPS growth rate will be 14% and 12% in 2022 and 2023, which is higher than the main indexes of developed Markets: the adjusted A-Shares still have high allocation cost performance in the world. Finally, despite the significant adjustment of A-Shares in January, the application and redemption behind the northbound funds are relatively stable. According to EIKON’s statistics, overseas China funds maintained a large range of net subscription in the three weeks before the Spring Festival.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : the market will gradually warm up in March and actively increase positions in the opening year
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) the weekly report of A-share strategy points out that under the current stable growth, the infrastructure strength or local debt problem, as well as the recovery of real estate, as the core leading of the wide credit slope in the future, will become two important anchors of market risk appetite. At present, although the structural problems still exist in the social finance data in January, the total amount exceeds the expectation, which has shown a positive signal, and the wide credit is on the way. In the future, with the approach of the national two sessions in March, the steady growth policy will be accelerated, and the infrastructure and real estate are expected to be gradually repaired. On the whole, there is no need to be pessimistic about the short-term weak consolidation of the market. In March, with the upward repair of positive factors, the market will gradually warm up and actively increase positions in the beginning of the year. At present, there are two new ways in front of investors. On the one hand, after continuous adjustment, the cost performance of track companies has gradually increased. On the other hand, under the warming expectation of steady growth, the allocation value of consumption, infrastructure and other undervalued directions has increased.
