In the 2022 annual strategy report "return of blue chip", we proposed that blue chip is the main style throughout the year. After the Spring Festival, the market blue chip market represented by the Shanghai Composite Index has been launched. This issue focuses on the analysis and judgment of the four focus issues currently concerned by the market.
focus 1: how sustainable is the main line of steady growth? we believe that the steady growth policy, infrastructure first, followed by real estate, will restore China's GDP to a potential growth level of about 5.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, which will support the quarterly market of the main line of steady growth.
focus 2: when will the growth track usher in systematic repair? we believe that the current market style is in the process of transforming from growth to value and will last for at least one quarter; After the three conditions are complete, the growth track in the second quarter is expected to usher in systematic repair.
focus 3: what is the impact of global monetary tightening on a shares? we believe that under the phased dislocation of China US monetary policy in the first half of the year, the impact of peripheral monetary tightening on A-Shares is mainly at the emotional level, and the actual impact is limited.
focus 4: how to grasp market opportunities at the current time point? we suggest that we stick to the blue chip style throughout the year. At present, we should stick to the main line of value blue chip catalyzed by stable growth policy and continue to focus on the active layout of "two low positions".
▍ focus 1: with regard to the main line of steady growth, infrastructure first and real estate later, a number of policies have made joint efforts to improve fundamental expectations and support the quarterly level market of relevant main lines.
1) social finance exceeded expectations in January, the upward turning point of credit was confirmed, and steady growth achieved initial results. in January 2022, social finance increased by 6.17 trillion, an increase of 981.6 billion over the same period of last year; Among them, RMB loans increased by 4.2 trillion, an increase of 381.8 billion over the same period last year, and government bonds increased by 602.6 billion. The credit and social finance data in January reached a record high in a single month, both exceeding consensus expectations, and steady growth has achieved initial results. In terms of credit, medium and long-term loans of enterprises also reached a record high, changing the decline of a year-on-year increase of about 200 billion in the first five months to a year-on-year increase of 60 billion. Structurally, although the proportion of short-term loans and bill financing in enterprise loans is still high, this is a common phenomenon in the early stage of social finance improvement. New residential loans were 427 billion less than the same period last year, which continued to be dragged down by the slowdown in real estate sales. In terms of year-on-year growth, the growth rate of social finance stock rebounded to 10.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, and M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the previous month. Social finance data exceeded expectations, and the upward inflection point of the credit cycle has been confirmed, supporting the implementation of subsequent steady growth policies.
2) infrastructure first, real estate later, policy implementation and data disclosure will improve fundamental expectations. on the one hand, 19 of the 30 provinces that have issued government work reports have set investment growth targets, generally ranging from 7.5% to 10%. At present, infrastructure projects, funds and implementation plans are ready. Infrastructure investment is expected to be more than 8% year-on-year in the first quarter, the monthly growth peak is expected to reach 10%, and the growth rate of this year is about 7%. On the other hand, the real estate "implementation strategy for the city" has been carried out in an orderly manner. The management of financing and pre-sale funds has adjusted and stabilized the sales expectation, so as to prevent the credit cycle collapse risk of the real estate industry, superimposed with the decline of mortgage interest rate and the improvement of residents' expectation. The real estate team of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) Research Department predicts that the real estate sales are expected to stabilize after March 2022. Thirdly, with the commencement of projects around the country after the Lantern Festival, the unexpected credit began to be transmitted to the entity, and the meso high-frequency grumbling will strengthen the consensus of the market on the main line of stable growth. Finally, the peak of the impact of this round of Omicron import epidemic has passed. Under the accurate epidemic prevention measures, the number of new zeroing days in various places is no longer than delta strain, and the State Food and drug administration has approved the import registration of Pfizer covid-19 virus treatment drug paxlovid with emergency conditions. We expect that a number of policies will work together, and China's GDP will return to a potential growth level of about 5.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, which will support the quarterly level market of the main line of steady growth.
▍ focus 2: as for the growth track, the current market style transformation from growth to value will last for at least one quarter; After the three conditions are complete, the growth track in the second quarter is expected to usher in systematic repair.
1) the incremental capital is limited. Under the position adjustment and position reduction of institutional funds, the style switching from growth to value will run through the first quarter. in terms of new issuance, the adjustment of the net value of the market and fund products since the beginning of the year, especially the rapid decline of growth track stocks, has affected Jimin's purchase sentiment: the new issuance of the fund is less than expected, there was no "good start" of the new issuance of the fund in January, and the newly issued equity public offering products were only 66.1 billion, including 55.8 billion active equity. According to the research feedback of sales channels, Both banks and securities companies faced great resistance to channel sales in January. In terms of stock redemption, there is no "redemption tide" in retail funds, but there is a certain redemption pressure in institutional funds. According to the research data of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) channels, there has even been a net purchase of stock products in the last week, with a net purchase rate of 0.1%. On the one hand, the position adjustment of public raised stock funds is still continuing. On the other hand, under the sudden collapse of the group at the beginning of the year and the rapid adjustment of institutional heavy positions, absolute income "fixed income +", private placement and insurance products are also passively reduced. Under the superposition of the two, the liquidity pressure on the growth track is still large, but the high point of liquidity pressure on the whole market has passed.
2) after the three conditions are complete, the growth track is expected to usher in system repair in the second quarter. first, the rapid adjustment of growth track stocks in this round is mainly affected by trading factors, but it is also related to the downward pressure on profit growth under the high base. The scarcity of high growth of growth track performance needs to be further verified in the quarterly report disclosure period in April. Second, the Fed's interest rate hike in March is almost a foregone conclusion, but the specific rate hike range and subsequent statements are still important. The interest rate has a greater impact on long-term growth stocks, and we still need to wait for the fed to raise interest rates. Third, we should also observe the position of public offering at the end of the first quarter, that is, after this round of "high cut low" transactions, some private placements have faced liquidation risks. Whether the follow-up growth track has been fully adjusted and how the allocation of public offering remains to be verified. Based on the above three conditions, we believe that the growth track has a greater probability of entering the system repair channel in the second quarter, and we still need to wait.
▍ focus 3: with regard to global monetary tightening, under the phased dislocation of China US monetary policy in the first half of the year, the impact of peripheral monetary tightening on A-Shares is mainly at the emotional level, and the actual impact is limited.
1) there is still pressure on US stocks in the medium term, and the tightening pace of the Federal Reserve is difficult to exceed expectations. the CPI of the United States in January rose to 7.5% year-on-year higher than expected, and the yield of 10-year US bonds exceeded 2%. However, according to the latest CME data, investors have been price in. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates six times this year: 50bps in March and 25bps in the next five times. By the end of the year, the federal funds rate will rise to the range of 1.75% - 2.0%, which is difficult to exceed the expectation.
However, with the acceleration of US bond issuance, the US risk-free interest rate is expected to continue to rise in the future, further suppressing the valuation of US stocks. It is expected that the PE valuation centers of the S & P 500 and Nasdaq index will fall back to the levels of 18x and 25X respectively during the year. In addition, due to concerns about inflation, supply chain and other issues, since the quarterly report period of US stocks, the EPS growth rate of S & P 500 this year has been reduced from 9.3% to 8.5%, while indicators such as VIX Index and put / call ratio also show the loosening of investor sentiment in US stocks since the beginning of the year. It is expected that the current downward trend of US stocks will continue until the end of the second quarter of this year.
2) under the phased dislocation of China US monetary policy in the first half of the year, overseas disturbance affected the rhythm of foreign capital's additional allocation of a shares, but did not change the trend of additional allocation. first of all, the scale of foreign capital inflow decreased in January this year, but it still maintained a net inflow. In January, the net inflow of allocated funds was 21.3 billion yuan, a month on month increase of - 64%; One week after the Spring Festival holiday in February, the allocation and transaction funds flowed into 4.5 billion yuan and 6.6 billion yuan respectively. Secondly, the preference of foreign capital for RMB asset allocation has increased, which is due to the fact that China's market environment of "low inflation + leniency policy + reasonable equity valuation" in 2022 is still better than the combination of "high inflation + tight policy + high equity valuation" in European and American developed markets, and better than most emerging economies with high inflation and weak growth. In terms of specific data, the current dynamic P / E ratio of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is only 10.9x, which is not high compared with the valuation level and valuation quantile of developed markets. It is unanimously expected that the EPS growth rate in 2022 and 2023 will be 14% and 12%, which is higher than the main indexes of developed markets: the adjusted A-share still has a high allocation price ratio in the world. Finally, despite the significant adjustment of A-Shares in January, the application and redemption behind the northbound funds are relatively stable. According to EIKON's statistics, overseas China funds maintained a large range of net subscription in the three weeks before the Spring Festival.
▍ focus 4. With regard to configuration selection, it is recommended to adhere to the blue chip style throughout the year. At present, we should closely follow the value blue chip main line catalyzed by the steady growth policy and continue to focus on the active layout of "two low positions".
1) the main line of steady growth is sustainable, and high-quality value blue chips dominate the market style. in the 2022 annual strategy report "return of blue chips", we put forward that blue chips are the main style of A-share market throughout the year. After the Spring Festival, the market blue chips represented by the Shanghai Composite Index has been launched. Since the new year, China's policy has focused on steady growth, and the relevant investment main line has been sustained. The rise of corresponding low value blue chips is still an important style feature of A-share market in the future, The system repair of the growth track still needs to wait.
2) continue to firmly focus on the positive layout of "two low positions". as the policy relay forms a joint force and the market consensus is gradually strengthened, the main line of "steady growth" is expected to last for at least one quarter. It is suggested to continue to follow the main line of "steady growth" and actively layout high-quality blue chips around "Two Lows", specifically including: varieties with relatively low valuation. It is suggested to pay attention to high-quality developers , building materials and household enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, and Hong Kong stock Internet leader after the impact of China stock concept, And fine chemical enterprises with the ability to develop new businesses such as new materials; For the varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be relatively low, focus on the midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as automobile , photovoltaic wind power equipment , and aviation and Hotel whose fundamentals are expected to be still low.
▍ risk factors:
Global epidemic recurrence; The friction between China and the United States in the field of science and technology trade has intensified; The progress of China's economic recovery is less than expected; Macro liquidity at home and abroad tightened more than expected.
