To meet the “double carbon” tide, a number of photovoltaic enterprises are gearing up, but not everyone can be proud of the market. The reporter found that, as of February 12, 30 of the 45 companies whose main business of A-share is photovoltaic and have issued performance announcements have increased in advance, 15 have reduced or lost in advance, and the upstream and downstream have different temperatures – the upstream silicon wafer sector generally makes a lot of profits, while the downstream module battery sector has suffered losses.
silicon material price soared
upstream raw materials and equipment manufacturers made a lot of money last year
From the lower limit of the year-on-year growth rate of predicted net profit, there are 15 companies with more than 100%, and the top ten enterprises with the highest growth rate are Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) , Ningxia Jiaze Renewables Corporation Limited(601619) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) , Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) . Among them, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) are upstream silicon suppliers.
On the afternoon of February 13, China’s polysilicon leader Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) released the latest performance express, which showed that in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 66.602 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.68%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 8.203 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.35%; After deducting non recurring profits and losses, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 8.382 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 248.03%; The basic earnings per share was 1.8222 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 112.35%.
Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) explain the reasons for the change in performance: in 2021, benefiting from the growth of downstream demand, the supply of high-purity crystalline silicon products was in short supply, and the market price increased significantly year-on-year. The company’s high-purity crystalline silicon production capacity continued to operate at full capacity, with an annual sales volume of 107700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24% and a significant increase in profit. At the same time, the company’s Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery and feed business segments operated steadily and maintained strong market competitiveness.
According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of polysilicon rose all the way last year, from about 60000 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021 to above 180000 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with an annual increase of 177% and a maximum increase of nearly 200%.
Xue Jinlei, an analyst at the business agency, told the Shanghai Securities News that the rise of silicon materials was mainly affected by the serious mismatch between supply and demand caused by the shortage of supply and strong downstream demand. Although the price of silicon material is high, the profit is considerable, and the silicon material enterprises have expanded their production, there are few units completed and put into operation in 2021, which can not meet the market demand. The downstream is affected by the favorable photovoltaic policy, the demand continues to expand, and the silicon supply is relatively tight throughout the year.
As a representative of the silicon wafer link, Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) is expected to have a net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company of 3.8 billion yuan to 4.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 248.95% to 285.68%. The reason for the outstanding performance is that the production capacity of the company’s photovoltaic 210 products has accelerated, the production efficiency of a single furnace is leading in the industry, and the silicon wafer production rate and product a rate have increased significantly, which has greatly improved the product gross profit.
In addition, the active expansion of upstream production also sent a series of large orders to relevant equipment manufacturers. Photovoltaic equipment enterprises such as Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) , Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , J.S.Corrugating Machinery Co.Ltd(000821) also made a lot of money last year.
the downstream is miserable. Can it turn for the better this year?
Similar to the reason that high oil prices will “burn” the downstream, high silicon prices also bring considerable pressure to the downstream of the photovoltaic industry chain.
Statistics show that among the 15 photovoltaic enterprises that announced pre reduction or pre loss, Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , Jiangsu Akcome Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002610) are all downstream of the industrial chain.
Among them, Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) is expected to have a net loss of 220 million yuan to 280 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 327.61% to 389.68%. It is estimated that the net loss after deducting non recurring profits and losses in 2021 will be RMB 270 million to RMB 330 million, which is from profit to loss compared with the previous year. One of the main reasons for the company’s performance loss is the sharp rise in the price of main raw materials for battery and module business and the sharp rise in sea freight during the reporting period.
Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) previously disclosed that it is expected to have a loss of 35 million yuan to 52.5 million yuan in 2021, from profit to loss, with a year-on-year decrease of 121.17% to 131.75%. In this regard, the company explained that the company’s photovoltaic module sales revenue increased year-on-year in 2021. However, due to the continuous rise in the prices of upstream raw materials, especially silicon materials and silicon wafers, the company’s module order sales price was signed in advance, and the growth rate of module sales price was slower than that of upstream raw materials, resulting in thin sales gross profit and unable to fully release production capacity.
With the high upstream cost, the price of downstream components can not continue the downward trend, which has seriously hit the enthusiasm of photovoltaic installation and development, and it is also an important background that the overall photovoltaic installation was not satisfactory in the second half of last year.
For this year’s industry trend, the industry believes that it largely depends on the price of silicon material. In this regard, Xue Jinlei said that the trend of silicon materials in 2022 may not be as strong as that in 2021, which is mainly affected by the fundamentals of supply and demand. On the one hand, in 2022, many silicon devices in China need to be put into operation, with a new capacity of about 500000 tons. At that time, silicon material may have a strong downward range. On the other hand, from the demand side, the period from 2021 to 2022 is the centralized production period of silicon wafers, and the new capacity of silicon wafers in 2022 is as high as 90 GW. However, the demand for downstream batteries and components may not be as expected, which will further reduce the operating rate of silicon wafer manufacturers, thus swallowing the upstream silicon.
“Based on comprehensive consideration, it is expected that while the supply of silicon materials increases, the demand growth may take some time, and the growth rate is not as fast as the expansion of silicon materials and silicon wafers, so the overall supply will show a certain surplus. Especially with the arrival of the investment period in the second half of 2022, polysilicon may face the risk of falling from a high level.” Xue Jinlei said.
