I. overseas markets: the Fed's expectation of monetary tightening continues to strengthen, and the market has differences on the range of the first interest rate increase. The Fed's interest rate hike is expected to be strengthened for the first time in July, but Powell's interest rate hike is still basically different from the Fed's interest rate hike in July. As of last week (2022 / 2 / 4), the market expects the probability of raising interest rates by 25bp in March to be 66%; After the release of inflation data, the market expected the probability of raising interest rates by 50bp in March to 49%. Federal funds rate futures show that the number of interest rate increases in 2022 is 6.29. Compared with January, the current market interest rate increase is expected to rise faster.
II. At present, it is in the transmission period from wide currency to wide credit, and the policy of "steady growth" is expected to be gradually strengthened. According to the data released by the central bank, the credit and social finance data in January exceeded market expectations, but the credit structure still needs to be optimized. For example, the bill impulse continues, and the resident loan is still weak. Combined with the current high-frequency data of commercial housing transactions, it is not difficult to see that there is still a distance between the "market bottom" and the "policy bottom" of the real estate industry. The fourth quarter goods policy report of the central bank pointed out that in the next stage, it will focus on increasing financial support for key areas and weak links, emphasize "stable aggregate and excellent structure", and further clarify the orientation of wide credit. Subsequently, with the convening of the two sessions, the policy of "steady growth" is expected to be gradually strengthened.
Third, the earnings of A-share enterprises have structural highlights. according to the forecast of the annual report of listed companies, the number of high boom technology manufacturing industry exceeds the expectation, and the prediction rate of upstream resource products industry is high. The disclosure rate of performance forecast in the annual report of A-Shares reached 54%, of which 1475 shares (pre increase / slight increase / turnaround / continued profit) accounted for 58%. By industry, the industries with the highest pre gratification rate are: Iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, coal, banking, basic chemical industry, petroleum and petrochemical, etc; The top industries exceeding the expected number (consistent prediction of wind) are: basic chemical industry, electronics, medicine and biology, power equipment and mechanical equipment.
Fourth, investment strategy: repeatedly grinding the bottom stage, in the medium and long term, it is in the stage of strategic layout. the current A shares are still in a period of shock and repeated bottom grinding. The adjustment of the A-share overvalued boom track is a "cold spring" after the general rise in the early stage. Many factors restricting the strength of the A-share market need to be gradually digested. for a long time, A-Shares are in the stage of strategic layout. The risk of short-term violence has been fully released after nearly two months; Second, the long-term sound and positive trend of China's economy remains unchanged. At present, it is in the transmission period from wide currency to wide credit, and the follow-up steady growth policy is expected to gradually strengthen; Third, from the forecast of annual reports of listed companies, there are many structural highlights in the profits of A-share enterprises. In terms of configuration, focus on two main investment lines:
First, policy "steady growth" allocation varieties, such as "bank, real estate, building materials and construction";
Second, "food and beverage, breeding, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) " and so on.
In terms of theme, focus on "new energy (vehicle), digital economy, seed industry", etc.
■ risk warning: repeated outbreaks outside China; Large fluctuations in overseas markets; The profit of the enterprise is less than expected; Overseas Black Swan incident (political risk, sovereign rating downgrade), etc.
