On February 11, the last trading day of the first week after the year, the banking sector became popular again on a large scale. Many bank stocks have broken through or close to the historical high price. The continuous rise of the banking sector is particularly bright in many industries.
The Chinese reporter of the securities firm noted that since 2022, although there has been a wide range of shock adjustment in the A-share market as a whole, the bank stocks that have always been undervalued have stepped out of a relatively independent upward trend, and several stocks have increased by more than 20%. On the whole, among the Shenwan industry, the banking sector has increased by 8.67% year to date, second only to the coal sector and second in all industries.
On February 10, the financial data of January disclosed by the central bank showed that the increment of social finance in January reached 6.17 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations and an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year; In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, a record high, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year. A number of brokerage research institutions released research reports that when the social finance data greatly exceeded the market expectations, the policy force and performance catalysis and other factors are optimistic about the spring market of the banking sector, and the opportunities outweigh the risks.
the banking sector rose against the trend, and several stocks rose more than 20% this year
On February 11, the last trading day of the week, the market index fluctuated upward after opening low in the morning and began diving in the afternoon. On that day, the Shanghai index fell 0.66%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.55% and the gem fell 2.84%. In the “green into one” market environment, most bank stocks of A-Shares are red, among which bank of Lanzhou closed at the limit, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) share price hit a record high.
After the opening of trading on the 11th, bank stocks rose rapidly. The Shenwan bank index rose 1.6% at one time and fell back in the afternoon. Overall, as of the closing of the day, 30 of the 42 bank stocks in A-Shares rose, 9 were flat and 3 fell slightly. The Bank of Lanzhou raised the limit to achieve “five consecutive Yang”; Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) rose 4.43%, Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) rose 2.48% and 2.04% respectively, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) both rose 2.03%.
it is worth mentioning that on February 11, the share prices of many banks have broken through or close to historical highs. Among them, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) broke through a record high of 15.34 yuan / share and closed at 15.1 yuan / share; Individual stocks such as Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) are also approaching record highs, and the share price of Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) has reached a new high in more than a year.
The Chinese reporter of the securities firm noted that since 2022, in the A-share banking sector, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) have all increased by more than 20%, except that the secondary share Bank of Lanzhou has increased by 91.88%. In addition, large state-owned banks Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , up 18.04%, ranking first among major state-owned banks. Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) all increased by more than 15%.
In terms of capital flow, the data show that the net inflow of funds in the banking sector this week reached 10.448 billion yuan, ranking second in major industries; In terms of individual stocks, the top three banks in the main net inflow are Lanzhou bank, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) .
On the whole, among the Shenwan industry, the banking sector has increased by 8.67% year to date, second only to the coal sector and second in all industries.
institutions: the credit easing policy took effect, driving the valuation repair of the banking sector
recently, the central bank disclosed that the financial data in January showed that the new credit in January was 3.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year; Social finance increased by 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year. Financial data exceeding market expectations may further verify the tone of macro policy wide credit.
On February 11, the “report on the implementation of China’s monetary policy in the fourth quarter of 2021” released by the central bank mentioned that the next stage will “maintain the stable growth of the total amount of money and credit. Improve the money supply regulation mechanism, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, guide financial institutions to effectively expand loan supply and enhance the stability of the growth of the total amount of credit.”
In the context of the continuous release of positive macro financial data and policy signals, many brokerage research institutions have released research reports to remain optimistic about the follow-up performance of the banking sector.
According to the analysis of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Research Report, looking forward to 2022, in the external environment of wide credit and stable economy, the new volume of social financing and credit is expected to maintain a steady expansion, M1 is expected to rebound significantly in February, and the bottom recovery of the economy after M1 inflection point will continue to confirm. The agency reiterated that it is optimistic about the banking sector under the logic of wide credit and stable economy, and more optimistic about the performance advantages and valuation improvement potential of high-quality banks under the background of smooth logic of the sector.
According to the Securities Research Report, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) the social finance and credit data in January of greatly exceeded the market expectations, which will further improve the market expectations for the economy. Continue to be optimistic about the valuation repair market of the banking sector driven by the improvement of economic expectations, real estate risk mitigation and market style switching.
Wang Yifeng, a financial analyst, said in the research report that the financial data of {23456} Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) January announced the “Tianliang” credit supply “in advance. It is expected that policy banks and large state-owned banks have played a” head goose effect “, while the market-oriented demand of small and medium-sized banks has yet to be restored. In addition, the credit supply of high-quality urban rural commercial banks in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is booming.
In addition, Wang Yifeng’s team believes that more relevant policies conducive to the formation of physical workload will still be introduced in the future. At present, it is still in the transmission process from wide currency to wide credit. The logic of “stable growth – stable investment – stable credit” is still established, and the market expectation for wide credit is still strong. “During this period, the excellent performance of bank stocks will be continued”.
In terms of specific investment logic, the above research report said that it can still grasp three main lines: first, the main line of high-quality bank rebound brought by phased mitigation of real estate risk; Second, local banks in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces and other high-quality regions operate steadily. These banks’ credit supply is relatively “prosperous in both supply and demand”, and their operating performance is more deterministic; Third, large banks with stable credit supply.
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