review: since November 2021, the steady growth direction represented by state-owned enterprise real estate has been the first promotion. In the top ten forecasts of 2022, it is judged that "a wave of undervalued repair market similar to 'mini version 2014' is expected in 2022".
Outlook: "mini version 2014" is being performed. At present, it is similar to in July 2014
"mini version 2014" is being performed. since the beginning of the year, the market has continued to decline, but the real estate, banking, securities companies and other sectors have been relatively resistant to decline, or even rose against the trend, showing significant relative returns. Since November 2021, we have repeatedly stressed that we should not underestimate or ignore the investment value of the "steady growth" sector, and there will be a wave of undervalued structural market similar to "mini version 2014".
at present, the stage of "steady growth" and the sustainability of follow-up have become the focus of the market. we systematically reviewed the macro background and structural interpretation during the five rounds of "steady growth" in 2008, 2012, 2014, 2019 and 2020, so as to provide reference for the current market:
The past five rounds of "steady growth" have occurred at a time of great economic pressure. And the market's expectation of policy relaxation has never been achieved overnight, but a process from "expected warming" to "skepticism" and then to "final belief", from quantitative change to qualitative change. even in 2014, looking back, the signals and logic of policy relaxation were very clear, but the market still experienced such a long, slow reversal of expectations, from "not believing" to "believing". Finally, it deduces a structural market of undervalued repair. At present, the market is still "skeptical" about policy relaxation, and the expectation of "stable growth" has not been fully reflected in the position.
in terms of rhythm, it is similar to that in July 2014 (the social finance data in June exceeded expectations). in the previous process of "steady growth", social finance is an important signal that affects market expectations and even forms confidence in "steady growth". The release of "Tianliang" by social finance in January will further strengthen market confidence. Similar to July 2014, after the announcement of social finance in June and greatly exceeding expectations, the financial, real estate, nonferrous metals and other sectors led the market to rise.
on the sustainability of "steady growth", the downward pressure on house prices is a good leading indicator. for example, in the three rounds of steady growth in 2008, 12 and 14, the repair of undervalued sectors such as banks, real estate and securities companies will not end before house prices turn positive month on month. Even after becoming positive, the "steady growth" sector can still rise further. referring to history, before the downward pressure on house prices eased and the housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities became positive month on month, banks, real estate, securities companies and other undervalued sectors could probably have excess returns and absolute returns.
therefore, we judge that "steady growth" is far from the right, and "mini version 2014" will continue to perform.
structurally, "dumbbell" configuration: on the one hand, the direction of China's policy relaxation is determined, and "mini version 2014" is on the way, focusing on "big finance" benefiting from "stable growth" and marginal "wide credit"; On the other hand, the layout, excavation and adjustment are deep, the pressure of congestion is fully released, and the prosperity is still good. 1) "big finance": we judge that there is expected to be a wave of index market similar to "mini version 2014" this year, including banks, real estate, securities companies and other big financial sectors. As a top-down logical support and a "place with few people", the repair of undervalued sectors will continue. 2) "Small high tech": after the adjustment since the beginning of the year, the current transaction congestion has dropped to a historically low level, and the pressure from position concentration and transaction congestion has been significantly released. On the premise of confirming the direction of prosperity, it is expected to rebound gradually in the follow-up.
investment strategy: grasp the repair of undervalued financial and real estate, and bargain hunting layout of "small high-tech". For a long time, focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedical drugs (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
risk tip: focus on the return of global capital to the United States, and the game between China and the United States.
