The stock index rose 3.02% this week. How will A-Shares operate next week? We have summarized the latest investment strategies of major institutions for investors’ reference.
CITIC strategy: four focus issues concerned by the current market
Focus 1: what is the sustainability of the main line of steady growth? We believe that the steady growth policy, infrastructure first, followed by real estate, and after the joint efforts of a number of policies, China’s GDP will return to a potential growth level of about 5.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, which will support the quarterly market of the main line of steady growth. Focus 2: when will the growth track usher in systematic repair? We believe that the current market style is in the process of transforming from growth to value and will last for at least one quarter; After the three conditions are complete, the growth track in the second quarter is expected to usher in systematic repair. Focus 3: how does global monetary tightening affect a shares? We believe that under the phased dislocation of China US monetary policy in the first half of the year, the impact of peripheral monetary tightening on A-Shares is mainly at the emotional level, and the actual impact is limited. Focus 4: how to grasp market opportunities at the current time point? We suggest that we stick to the blue chip style throughout the year, closely follow the value blue chip main line catalyzed by the steady growth policy, and continue to focus on the active layout of “two low positions”.
Cinda strategy: why is the stock market more stable and weaker?
The credit and social finance data released last week exceeded the consensus expectations of the market, which is another strong evidence of the continuous promotion of the steady growth policy since the central economic work conference last year. The weaker the stock market, but why? We believe that the current profits of enterprises are generally not very good at the initial stage of steady growth, so valuation is particularly important. Compared with the stable growth in history, the Pb of all a (non-financial petroleum and petrochemical) is higher this time. At present, the Pb is 2.7 times. At the end of 2008, the middle of 2014 and Q4 of 2018, the overall A shares fell below 2 times Pb. The overall valuation did not reach the extreme value, so it is difficult for the stock market to get rid of the impact of profitability. Strategically, 2022 will be a compressed version of 2018-2019, with the first half similar to 2018 and the second half similar to 2019. The rebound after the Spring Festival is a tactical rebound. The main catalyst is “steady growth policy promotion + performance window period + oversold rebound”. Under optimistic circumstances, the rebound can last until the two sessions.
CICC strategy: the main line of A-share policy “steady growth”
We believe that the current adjustment range of growth stocks may have been large, but the adjustment of investors’ risk appetite under the background of the lack of short-term positive catalyst may take time. China’s steady growth is still in force, and the market focus may continue to be in the related fields of “steady growth”; In addition, overseas markets are also reflecting the impact of global monetary tightening, restricting the performance of the global overvalued growth sector. We judge that when China’s growth expectation is gradually stabilized and the overseas market responds to monetary tightening to a certain extent, the market style may gradually meet the conditions for returning to the growth style. It is preliminarily estimated that the time point may be around the beginning of the second quarter, and the follow-up needs to be continuously updated according to the actual progress. On the whole, we believe that there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the Chinese market. Historically, under the background of relatively low market and low expectations, there have been more than expected credit and social finance increments. The cycle from two to three months has a positive impact on the market. If these indicators have a certain sustainability, it will be more obvious. The improvement of forward-looking indicators is conducive to the improvement of growth expectations. In terms of style, we believe that “steady growth” is still the main line of the future stage. The space for sharp decline in growth style may be relatively limited, but we may not be in a hurry to bottom.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : the market will gradually pick up in March and actively increase positions
Study and judgment of the general trend: wait for March of Yangchun. The market fluctuated upward this week, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.02% and returned to 3450 points. We believe that in the short term, the market is still dominated by weak consolidation in the process of digesting negative factors, but there is no need to be pessimistic. In March, with the upward repair of positive factors, the market will gradually recover. 1) The negative impact of overseas liquidity still needs to be digested. In January, the US CPI rose to 7.5% year-on-year, a 40 year high. The 50bp interest rate increase in March is expected to be further strengthened, and the US bond interest rate stands at the 2% mark. In the short term, the US inflation level is expected to rise in February, and the Chinese market still needs to continue to absorb the negative impact of the rapid fluctuation of overseas interest rate hike expectations. But looking further back, with the weakening of US economic data and the peaking of inflation, the expectation of interest rate increase is expected to peak in the first quarter. At the same time, the FOMC meeting in March will also reduce the uncertainty of liquidity expectation periodically, and the negative impact of overseas liquidity expectation in March will accelerate and weaken. 2) Focusing on the two anchors of risk appetite, the positive factors will be gradually revised. At present, under the condition of steady growth, infrastructure strength or local debt problem, as well as the recovery of real estate, as the core leading of the wide credit slope in the future, will become two important anchors of market risk appetite. At present, although the structural problems still exist in the social finance data in January, the total amount exceeds the expectation, which has shown a positive signal, and the wide credit is on the way. In the future, with the approach of the national two sessions in March, the steady growth policy will be accelerated, and the infrastructure and real estate are expected to be gradually repaired. On the whole, there is no need to be pessimistic about the short-term weak consolidation of the market. In March, with the upward repair of positive factors, the market will gradually warm up and actively increase positions in the beginning of the year.
Guosheng strategy: market choice after Tianliang credit
After the festival, the Shanghai index rose for four consecutive days, but its structure was significantly differentiated. The king of value stocks represented by dividends and undervalued values returned. The dividend index and market value increased by more than 6% weekly, while the mass entrepreneurship and innovation index remained in decline. The first quarter has been halfway through. After the release of social finance and credit, what will the market choose? From the perspective of the impact of the credit cycle on the stock market, after the confirmation and reversal of the credit pulse, the market does not need to be pessimistic in theory; Macro variables often do not tend to be consistent. From the perspective of combination, it is still in the combination (weak economy, loose currency and credit) for some time in the future. Under this range, we should pay more attention to structure, and the most obvious one is the return of value style; What the ternary framework does not consider is the change of overseas environment. Under the background of internationalization, the impact of external variables on A-share pricing is increasing, especially the impact of US bond interest rate on Chinese style.
West China strategy: repeatedly grind the bottom, and it is in the stage of strategic layout in the medium and long term
The current A shares are still in a period of shock and repeated bottom grinding. The adjustment of the A-share overvalued boom track is a “cold spring” after the general rise in the early stage. Many factors restricting the strength of the A-share market need to be gradually digested. For a longer period of time, A-Shares are in the stage of strategic layout. The risk of short-term violence has been fully released after nearly two months; Second, the long-term sound and positive trend of China’s economy remains unchanged. At present, it is in the transmission period from wide currency to wide credit, and the follow-up steady growth policy is expected to gradually strengthen; Third, from the forecast of annual reports of listed companies, there are many structural highlights in the profits of A-share enterprises. In terms of allocation, attention should be paid to two main investment lines: first, the allocation of varieties of “stable growth” in policies, such as “banking, real estate, building materials and construction”; Second, “food and beverage, breeding, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ” and so on. In terms of theme, focus on “new energy (vehicle), digital economy, seed industry”, etc.
GF strategy: how to study and judge the style when the inflection point of social finance is established?
The “two major Expectation Differences” proposed in the annual strategy and the “negative feedback” of institutional funds are the main reasons for the fluctuation of A-share market. Two major expected differences: 1. US stagflation and fed forced to tighten more than expected; 2. China’s steady growth is in line with expectations, but the final effect is lower than expected. In addition, the decline at the beginning of the year triggered the passive position reduction of absolute income products, and the position exchange between high and low areas of relative income intensified the fluctuation.
After the festival, the good start is expected to continue. The short-term stable growth chain is dominant, and the medium-term layout is low. Peg growth. The changes of three major factors will support the short-term success of a shares; There are still two major tests in the medium term: the Fed’s faster pace of interest rate increase + table contraction, and the realization effect of China’s steady growth. US bond interest rate affects growth and credit affects value. There are still opportunities for short-term value in this round, and low peg growth will be gradually arranged in the medium term. Continue to use the peg idea to carry out the balanced allocation of high and low areas: 1. The intersection of “steady growth” and “double carbon” in low areas (securities companies / consumer building materials / coal chemical industry); 2. Peg Heyi technology track shares (new energy vehicle / wind power photovoltaic / digital economy); 3. Post epidemic service consumption (hotel / Aviation).
Western strategy: inflation transaction starts ahead of schedule and uses inflation to overcome inflation
Under the guidance of “steady growth” policy, the bridging of consumption K-type differentiation is worth looking forward to. Since the outbreak, the rapid liquidity injection after the outbreak has made the financial system recover more rapidly than the real economy. Reflected in the income level, the growth of property income in residents’ income is faster, which also promotes the repair of optional consumer goods demand more fiercely. In contrast, the recovery of necessary consumption is slow. Referring to similar historical situations, under the background of gradual withdrawal of monetary policy and fiscal relay, we can often see the bridging of the gap of consumption differentiation. Inflation trading is started in advance, inflation is allocated and credit is widened. With the early start of inflation trading, we believe that investors need to actively allocate the consumer sectors whose profits are highly related to inflation and benefit from offline economic recovery, especially the essential consumer goods, which are still the main allocation line throughout the year, including aquaculture, planting, food processing, catering, tourism, retail, textile, traditional Chinese medicine, rubber products, etc. On the other hand, in the market environment of rapid rotation this year, investors with high risk preference can follow the credit cycle and actively participate in the rotation trading opportunities in industries with high probability of profit inflection point in the upward stage of the credit cycle. In addition, after waiting patiently for the market to stabilize, the high-quality growth leader whose performance can be determined and cashed is expected to usher in phased repair.
Investment promotion strategy: the growth rate of new social finance is becoming positive and A-share is turning for the better
Since the beginning of the year, the rapid narrowing of China US interest rate spread and the deterioration of the chip structure of A-Shares have led to the adjustment of a shares. In January, the total amount of new social finance in China exceeded expectations, and the growth rate of new social finance has become positive. Historically, new social finance saw the bottom of A-Shares in the month or quarter after the growth rate became positive, and the difference in time lag was mainly due to the RMB exchange rate. In the departure stage of loose internal and tight external monetary policies between China and the United States, there is pressure on the RMB exchange rate to depreciate. Until the Federal Reserve releases the dove signal, the interest rate gap between China and the United States stabilizes and expands again, the A shares will not bottom out and return to the upward trend. At present, the continuous higher than expected inflation in the United States has strengthened the expectation of raising interest rates by 50bp in March, the yield of US bonds has risen rapidly, the interest rate gap between China and the United States has narrowed to 80bp, and the concerns of RMB devaluation and capital outflow have suppressed the risk appetite of a shares. We believe that after the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in March, the market will further observe whether the Federal Reserve will have more hawkish actions. If there is marginal easing, the US bond yield will decline, the interest rate gap between China and the United States will expand again, and A-Shares may return to the upward cycle. Looking forward to the whole year, we maintain the view that A-Shares are stable before rising and similar to “√”, and we can focus on “undervalued +” and depression strategy throughout the year. In addition to the valuation and repair market in traditional fields, the steady growth direction should also focus on the undervalued sectors in new infrastructure (new energy infrastructure and digital infrastructure).
Xingzheng strategy: with reference to history, what stage is the current steady growth sector in
In terms of rhythm, the current situation is similar to that in July 2014 (the social finance data in June exceeded expectations). In the past “steady growth” process, social finance is an important signal that affects market expectations and even forms confidence in “steady growth”. The release of “Tianliang” by social finance in January will further strengthen market confidence. Similar to July 2014, after the announcement of social finance in June and greatly exceeding expectations, the financial, real estate, nonferrous metals and other sectors led the market to rise. On the sustainability of “steady growth”, the downward pressure on house prices is a good leading indicator. For example, in the three rounds of steady growth in 2008, 12 and 14, the repair of undervalued sectors such as banks, real estate and securities companies will not end before house prices turn positive month on month. Even after becoming positive, the “steady growth” sector can still rise further. Referring to history, before the downward pressure on house prices eased and the housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities became positive month on month, banks, real estate, securities companies and other undervalued sectors could probably have excess returns and absolute returns. Therefore, we judge that “steady growth” is far from the right, and “mini version 2014” will continue to perform.
