Why can’t Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) continue to make a breakthrough after reaching 692 yuan? Is it an example or a common phenomenon? What is the mystery behind it? When did the correction of trillion market capitalization stocks end?
Recently, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) plummeted and became a hot search. From December 3, 2021 to February 11, 2022, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell by nearly 30%, and the gem index fell by about 21% in the same period. Some people say that the decline of “ningwang” is the end of an era, while others believe that investors are cashing out.
overvalued bargain
Since the share price of “ningwang” Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) reached an all-time high on December 2 last year, it has fluctuated and fell for more than 40 trading days. The market value of this new “first brother on the gem” has fallen from the highest 1.6 trillion yuan (December 2, 2021) to less than 1.2 trillion yuan. Among the listed companies with a market value of more than 300 billion yuan, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has the largest decline in the same period, and the other two companies with a decline of more than 20% are Byd Company Limited(002594) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) .
These three companies are new energy companies. Since December 2 last year, the total market value has evaporated more than 560 billion yuan, equivalent to half a Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) . Four stocks including Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) fell by more than 10%.
In fact, shortly after the share price of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) reached a new high, it was exposed that Allianz, the largest overseas China fund, had reduced its position Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . Since the beginning of the year, the northbound capital has also reduced its position to a certain extent. Recently, the overseas “Ning” ETFs have been redeemed one after another due to the decline of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , but the leveraged funds still choose to increase their positions.
According to the main view of the market, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell mainly due to the following reasons, first, affected by the rise in the price of upstream power batteries, new energy vehicle enterprises continued to raise prices, and core customers or “fled”; Second, the emergence of new energy storage solutions may have an impact on the market share of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ; Third, overseas central banks enter the interest rate hike period, which may suppress the high valuation sector.
Is it possible to kill large cap stocks? From the data, we can’t draw a conclusion. The average rise and fall of stocks with a market value of more than 300 billion has been positive since December 3 last year, and the average decline of stocks with a market value of less than 1 billion has exceeded 10% in the same period.
However, after analyzing the valuation, it is found that the third of the above reasons has a significant impact on the stock price. According to the statistics of securities times · databao, the latest P / E ratio is divided according to the scope. The decline of stocks above 30 times is far more than that of stocks below 30 times. Among them, stocks below 30 times have only fallen by an average of 0.46% since December 3 last year, and stocks between 500 times and 1000 times have fallen by more than 5% in the same period.
From the perspective of individual stocks, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Byd Company Limited(002594) are valued at more than 150 times, and the valuation of the industry in which the two stocks are located is less than 60 times. The market value of Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) with a market value of 100 billion to 300 billion decreased by more than 40% in the same period, and the P / E ratio of both stocks was more than twice that of the industry valuation.
Benchmarking the US stock market, it is found that some A-share industries have high valuations, mainly technology and automobile. For example, the semiconductor and semiconductor production equipment industry, for example, the P / E ratio of US stocks (average value of individual stocks) is less than 40 times, the A-share is close to 60 times, the P / E ratio of US stocks is 78 times, and the A-share is more than 190 times in the software and service industry.
performance decline concerns are another incentive
In addition to the above valuation reasons, is there a deeper reason for the decline of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) .
Taking history as a mirror, according to the statistics of data treasure, the market value of 14 A shares in history has exceeded trillion yuan. In 2007, there were four “Chinese” prefix stock markets with a value of trillion yuan, including Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , among which Petrochina Company Limited(601857) has a maximum market value of more than 7 trillion yuan. So far, no company has a market value that can exceed it. The peak value of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and other three stock markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan. Now only Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) has a market value of more than 2 trillion yuan.
In addition to the valuation, the stock price is supported by continuous growth performance. Judging from the net profit growth rate of the above 14 companies in the previous year, the current year and the next year (taking the performance forecast or consistent prediction data of institutions in 2021 and after) when the share price reached a new high, there were 6 stocks whose performance growth rate in the previous year exceeded that of the current year, while there were 9 stocks whose performance growth rate in the current year exceeded that of the next year, with obvious commonalities. Taking Bank Of China Limited(601988) as an example, the highest closing price was recorded on July 9, 2015. The net profit in 2014 increased by 9.08% year-on-year, 0.74% and – 3.67% respectively in 2015 and 2016.
Let’s look at Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. The net profit increased by 1.51 times to 1.96 times, and the best performance in history failed to reverse the continuous decline of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . In the first week after the Spring Festival, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) accelerated its decline, with a decline of more than 17%, the highest in nearly 49 weeks. The growth rate of its net profit in 2023 and 2022 is predicted to be 12376 {and 452} respectively.
the underestimated value of accelerated performance growth is expected to become a “dark horse”
How do I get to the aftermarket? Capital Securities believes that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is facing a similar market environment of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) in 2021: the rising logic has been challenged, the yield of US bonds has risen sharply, the stock price has soared, and the track is highly crowded, forming a negative feedback of killing more. referring to the trend of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) may not see a bottom in the short term. Up to now, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) valuation is still more than 100 times.
Relevant people believe that in 2022, under the condition of maintaining a volatile market, undervalued blue chips, core assets, etc. may usher in opportunities in rotation. according to the statistics of data treasure, according to the latest closing day statistics (excluding the pharmaceutical and financial sectors), the valuation of individual stocks is lower than that of the corresponding industry, and the growth rate of net profit continues to increase from 2021 to 2023. Since the beginning of the year, there are only 15 individual stocks added positions by Beishang capital. The performance characteristics of these 15 shares are relatively obvious. Although the growth rate is not high, it is very stable. Only Avicopter Plc(600038) , Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) the net profit in 2021 may increase by more than 20%.
The market value of Xinhua Winshare Publishing And Media Co.Ltd(601811) is less than 10 billion yuan, and the market value of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) and Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co.Ltd(002236) is more than 50 billion yuan. Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co.Ltd(600820) , Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group Corporation Co.Ltd(600967) ranked first in the increase of funds going north, all exceeding 0.25 percentage points. In terms of market performance, dragged down by the market, 15 shares fell by more than 6% on average at the beginning of the year, and Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co.Ltd(600820) and China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) rose by more than 6% against the trend, of which Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) benefited from the good wind power, and rose by 13.39% against the trend since the beginning of the year.
