Vanke (00002. SZ, 02202. HK), the "bell ringer" in the real estate industry, once again sounded an early warning for real estate enterprises.
On February 11, a "summary speech of chairman Yu Liang at the 2022 meeting of Vanke Group" flowed out. A person close to Vanke told the times weekly that the content of the document was true.
Following the "Silver Age" proposed in 2014, Yu Liang once again divided the real estate industry into a new stage.
Yu Liang said that the real estate industry has entered the "black iron era" and entered the stage of shrinking and clearing. For the development of the real estate industry, it is the inevitable trend of de liquidation.
"2022 is a year for the group to overcome difficulties and fight back, and it is also the beginning of a new era." Yu Liang said bluntly that a fight against a backwater means either dead or alive. There is no middle state. The real estate industry must clear up quickly and resolutely. If we can solve the burden accumulated in the past, we will have the opportunity to start a new journey. If we can't get rid of the burden, we can't live.
In the "black iron era", Vanke advocated saving food and clothing to create a wartime atmosphere.
In November 2021, Vanke issued an internal initiative to subtract the expenses that do not generate value and spend a small amount of money to do big things. In order to reduce unnecessary expenses, all employees reasonably plan their travel according to the principle of optimal cost.
Vanke's management, represented by Yu Liang, set an example and carried out frugality to the end.
Yu Liang revealed that at present, he will not choose first class when booking tickets. If there is time to approach the flight, he will "buy which one is cheaper". In 2022, the income of Vanke employees will be greatly reduced, and the benefits and subsidies should match the "black iron era".
the scale of the industry began to shrink
The central economic work conference in 2021 stressed that we should adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, strengthen expectation guidance, explore new development models, adhere to the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, and accelerate the development of the long-term rental housing market.
Yu Liang's understanding of the "new development model" is one center and three basic points. One center is to solve Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) housing problems; The three basic points are housing without speculation, simultaneous rent and purchase and matching of people, land and housing.
Specifically, real estate can be divided into "real estate" and "no speculation". The "reasonable demand" for housing should be solved. "No speculation" means that although some house purchase restrictions may be liberalized, speculation is still not allowed, and the increase limit will be retained.
Yu Liang believes that the simultaneous development of rent and purchase is an opportunity for rental housing, but it also means that just in need buyers can choose between "rent" and "purchase", which will divert the demand for buying a house. Even if the demand for rental housing increases, it can not hedge the decline in the scale of house sales in development business.
"In the new development model, the relationship between people, land and housing may be improved. The housing supply in core and major cities will increase, and some unmet improvement needs in the past due to purchase restrictions and other reasons may be released in the future." Yu Liang pointed out that to adapt to the reality that the real estate industry returns to the attribute of people's livelihood, don't expect prices to rise.
Under the "real estate without speculation", the real estate industry has entered a stable cycle, and the mode of rapid scale expansion is no longer. Moody's, an international rating agency, said in a recent report that it is expected that the national contract sales of Chinese real estate developers will decline by 5% - 10% in 2022.
In Yu Liang's view, the real estate market will face two major changes, that is, the market differentiation will become more and more obvious and the industry scale will begin to shrink.
In the face of major changes, Vanke will make corresponding changes. Yu Liang pointed out that Vanke needs to think further in terms of investment. When the market differentiation shrinks and the profits are very limited, Vanke should make higher quality investment and change from uniform and decentralized investment in the past to local intensive investment with better market performance and proven team trading ability. If some places do not do well, or the renovation system should be revoked, the "serial number" should be withdrawn.
learn from Byd Company Limited(002594)
With the settlement of high land price projects and capitalized interest in the early stage, the operating cost and profit space of real estate enterprises are under pressure. In recent years, the profitability of real estate enterprises has weakened and the profit growth rate has remained low.
According to the data of Kerui real estate research center, in the first half of 2021, the gross profit margin, net profit margin and parent net profit margin of 80 typical listed real estate enterprises in the real estate industry continued to decline.
Among them, the gross profit margin index decreased the most. In the first half of 2021, the median gross profit margin decreased by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year to 21.7%. The median net interest rate and net interest rate attributable to the parent company also fell to 9.3% and 6.5% respectively. Compared with previous years, the profit margin indicators of the real estate industry have fallen to the lowest level since 2015.
Where should Vanke go in the low profit stage? In this regard, Yu Liang "learned" from Wang Chuanfu, chairman and President of Byd Company Limited(002594) group.
During a visit to Byd Company Limited(002594) , Wang Chuanfu told Yu Liang that Byd Company Limited(002594) except tires and glass, other products are produced by himself. Yu Liang previously believed that auto parts are quite mature and can be purchased and used from outside. However, Wang Chuanfu said that every product has a manufacturer, and each manufacturer has to make profits. It is difficult to make money when put together Byd Company Limited(002594) .
Inspired by this, Yu Liang believes that Vanke needs process reengineering, that is, reducing outsourcing links, rejecting the "setter" culture, doing everything personally and abandoning the inertial thinking of the golden age.
As the industry enters the "black iron era", how should Vanke find a new anchor point? Yu Liang's requirement for Vanke is to be a professional expert, an all-round champion and a winner in long-distance running.
Being a professional expert means that you can't be satisfied with being a good amateur. Don't compare with yourself in the past, but with the benchmark in the industry; The all-round champion refers to the end of the era of relying on one recruit to eat the world. Now we should pay equal attention to development, operation and service, which is also Vanke's new "Triathlon"; Long distance running victory will be long-term persistence, long-term persistence, doing the right thing and not violating discipline.
"If we dare to fight, can fight and are willing to fight together, we will win, and we will win very well." Yu Liang concluded.
