\u3000\u3000 747 Period | 2022/02/12
In 2022, the real estate market ushered in a more complex start than in 2021.
A year ago, the popularity of "ten thousand people robbing houses" in Shenzhen and "just in need customers can't buy houses with cash" in Shanghai and Hangzhou was still alive, but January 2021 missed a good start and ushered in a spring festival without returning home in the cold.
Continuing the low temperature trend at the end of 2021, the market activity in key cities continued to decline, and the expectations of buyers were pessimistic. Superimposed on the "explosion" of some real estate enterprises in 2021, the purchase behavior became more conservative, and the slow promotion of sales added another pressure to the real estate enterprises eager to collect the payment. In the face of capital pressure, the investment intensity of real estate enterprises decreased significantly year-on-year, and the scale of land acquisition shrank significantly year-on-year.
On January 20, the National Conference on housing and urban rural development continued to emphasize the need to enhance the coordination and accuracy of regulatory policies, continue to steadily implement the long-term mechanism of real estate, resolutely and effectively deal with the risk of overdue delivery of individual head real estate enterprises' projects, and continue to rectify and standardize the order of the real estate market.
Generally speaking, in January, the warm wind of local policies was blowing frequently. The national interbank lending center announced that the LPR over 5 years was 4.6%, down 5 basis points from the previous period; Many places have successively introduced new policies for housing provident fund, and some cities focus on house purchase subsidies and restrictions on talent house purchase or open settlement.
the transaction area of new houses decreased by 30% year-on-year
Although the recent credit and other policies are generally relatively loose, it still takes time to transmit them to the field of house purchase.
In terms of newly-built housing in January, the overall sales volume of key cities fell. Except that the transaction scale of Shanghai new housing market rebounded, the market performance of most cities was relatively cold.
According to the monitoring of China Index Research Institute, the transaction area of commercial housing in 50 cities in January was about 24.26 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%, and the decline was expanded.
Due to the repeated outbreaks in many places, all localities advocate local New Year celebrations, but there is still a significant increase in the number of returnees compared with the previous two years. Nevertheless, the "non closing" of the property market during the Spring Festival in 2022 still failed to activate the enthusiasm of small and medium-sized cities to return home, while in large cities, under the "local Chinese New Year", home buyers are not active, and the transaction scale continues to decline.
In fact, from the end of January to the Spring Festival of the year of the tiger, the transaction area of key monitoring cities in China decreased compared with that during the Spring Festival last year, with the exception of some cities such as Shanghai. According to the data of China Index Research Institute, during the Spring Festival in 2022, the turnover of new houses in Shanghai was 103000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 646%.
The shell Research Institute believes that from a longer cycle, the absolute value of trading volume in January 2022 has been close to the average level of the same period in 2018, 2019 and 2020, and the new housing market has begun to enter the bottom stage. From the perspective of the transmission path of regulation policies, in the past, regulation was often conducted in the direction of interest rate first, then provident fund, and then commercial loan. At present, many places have issued provident fund regulation policies, which may be transmitted to commercial loans in the future, and the policy adjustment will transition from low-energy cities to high-energy cities.
At the same time, many institutions predict that the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing will decrease by less than 10 percentage points in 2022.
Although the transaction volume of new houses in Baicheng fell in January, the price was stable.
According to the data of China Index Research Institute, the number of cities with month on month rise in new housing prices in January was 44, and the number of rising cities increased by 5 compared with the previous month.
The China Index Research Institute believes that it will take time for local support policies to take effect, and it is expected that the short-term market adjustment trend will continue. In some cities with early early adjustment and strong demand support, with the improvement of the credit environment and the implementation of relevant support policies, the market is expected to gradually bottom and recover, and some cities are still expected to have a "little sunny spring" in March. However, for most cities, the market adjustment time may be long, the recovery power is weak, and it is difficult for short-term home buyers to have a significant improvement.
the trading volume of second-hand houses decreased by 20% month on month
As a barometer of the second-hand housing market, although the overall situation remains cold, in addition to the stabilization of second-hand housing transactions in Hangzhou and Beijing, most cities still maintain a low level.
comparison of month on month rise and decline of second-hand housing price index in some cities
source: Shell Research Institute
According to the data of Shell Research Institute, the trading volume of second-hand houses in 50 cities in January decreased by about 23% month on month. Cities affected by the epidemic are the main areas with downward trading volume. For example, Xi'an was closed due to the epidemic, and the trading volume of second-hand houses decreased by more than 80% month on month in January; The epidemic situation in Zhengzhou and Tianjin recurred locally in January, and the trading volume decreased by more than 50% month on month; The epidemic situation in Beijing also repeated in late January, driving the trading volume of second-hand houses in Beijing chain to decline by 12% month on month.
According to the current trading volume, the market is still at a historical low, and the market prosperity of most third and fourth tier cities is still in the colder range of less than 20.
According to the report of the shell Research Institute, the market prosperity index above 40 is the expected prosperity of the market, and the price rise is expected to be strong. The expectation between 20 and 40 is relatively stable, and below 20 is the expected downturn of the market.
Trend of second-hand housing boom index in 50 City source: Shell Research Institute
However, the decline in second-hand housing prices narrowed month on month, making expectations pick up.
According to the data of Shell Research Institute, the second-hand housing price index in 50 cities fell by 0.3% month on month in January, 0.5 percentage points lower than that in the previous month.
Monthly trading volume trend of second-hand houses in 50 City source: Shell Research Institute
The number of cities with falling house prices further decreased, while the cities with faster house price repair are mainly the first tier cities and the second and third tier cities with better fundamentals.
In Beijing, Shanghai, Foshan, Suzhou and other cities, the shell second-hand housing price index rose steadily in January after stopping falling month on month; Quanzhou, Changsha, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Xiamen, Wuxi, Hefei and other second-hand housing price indexes stopped falling and stabilized.
Halve the number of 10 billion real estate enterprises
The growth rate of all camps fell, the threshold fell second, and the number of 10 billion real estate enterprises decreased by nearly half compared with the same period last year.
growth rate of top 100 real estate enterprises from 2021 to January 2022
source: Zhongzhi Research Institute
According to the data of China Index Research Institute, country garden, Vanke and Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) became the top three in sales in January, with sales of 50.4 billion yuan, 33.5 billion yuan and 27.9 billion yuan respectively.
In January, there were only 15 real estate enterprises with sales of 10 billion yuan, a decrease of 14 compared with the same period last year; There were 22 real estate enterprises exceeding 5 billion yuan, down 31 from the same period last year.
The average sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 23.1% year-on-year to 6.18 billion yuan. In addition, the sales of all camps decreased to varying degrees, and the average growth rate of sales of 15 camps with more than 10 billion was - 24%; 22 second camps with an average growth rate of - 31.3%; The average growth rate of 20 third camp real estate enterprises of 3-5 billion is - 33.8%.
top 10 sales performance of Chinese real estate enterprises in January
It is noteworthy that the performance of typical listed real estate enterprises fell almost across the board in January. According to Kerui's performance statistics of 45 typical listed real estate enterprises, the year-on-year growth of sales amount in a single month is only 42.2% of that of China Construction Industry Group, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) 7.1% and 0.8% of that of LEGO Group. The remaining 42 real estate enterprises have decreased by varying degrees, most of which are double-digit decline or even half cut.
On the other hand, the overall decline in the performance of real estate enterprises has seriously reduced the threshold of each camp. The threshold value of Top100 was only 1.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.4%. Among them, the threshold value of top 3 real estate enterprises decreased by 45.6%, top 10 real estate enterprises decreased by 27.3%, top 30 real estate enterprises decreased by 28.3%, and top 50 and top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 29.1% and 45.4% respectively year-on-year.
threshold value of each real estate enterprise camp in January
Kerui believes that many real estate enterprises have slowed down the supply rhythm, and the low supply has led to a sharp decline in transactions to a certain extent. More importantly, since the second half of last year, the downward pressure on the market has intensified, and the wait-and-see mood of home buyers has become more and more intense.
In this context, the marketing enthusiasm of real estate enterprises began to decline. Compared with the active marketing of real estate enterprises in early 2020, real estate enterprises have increased their promotion. In January this year, real estate enterprises rarely launched group activities, and the heat of regional linkage marketing has also weakened simultaneously. According to Kerui statistics, only Shimao, Greenland, rongchuang, Rongsheng and other real estate enterprises have launched some festival activities. Country garden has launched step punch in at the end of 2021, and R & F has launched the "online public welfare run" punch in activity with the opportunity of the Winter Olympics.
The land market had a dismal start
In January, Ningbo conducted the third batch of centralized land auction, and all 38 parcels of land were sold, of which 5 parcels reached the top, and the overall transfer fee reached 25.2 billion yuan, ranking first in the country.
With the exception of Ningbo, land transactions in other cities are in the doldrums, and the cities with the highest transaction amount are located in the Yangtze River Delta, such as Nantong, Changzhou, Jiaxing and Shanghai.
However, from the perspective of supply transactions, the previous month on month data can no longer adapt to the current changes in the structure of the local auction market. For example, compared with the results of 45 billion yuan in Shanghai and 40 billion yuan in Hangzhou in January 2021, the centralized land supply makes the transaction trend of cities full of uncertainty this year.
total monthly land acquisition of 50 representative real estate enterprises from 2021 to 2022
According to the China Index Research Institute, in January, 300 cities across the country launched various types of land use planning, with a construction area of 130 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 26.8%; The turnover was 100 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 30.2%; Both supply and transaction decreased significantly compared with last year.
Affected by the supply structure, 300 cities launched residential land in January this year, with a planned construction area of 40.424 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 47.56%; The planned construction area of the transaction was 26.786 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 54.08%.
In terms of the average transaction floor price, since some first tier cities and second tier cities have no land transactions, the average floor price of 300 cities is 3255 yuan / m2, and the overall transaction transfer fee is about 87.2 billion yuan, which has decreased significantly on a month on month basis.
From the perspective of land acquisition by real estate enterprises, the total amount of land acquisition by the top 100 enterprises in January was 83.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 62.6%. Green city China, China Resources Land and everyone's real estate occupied the top three of the new value list.
top ten land acquisition amount of real estate enterprises in January
The total land acquisition of 50 representative real estate enterprises decreased by 88.8% year-on-year, which more intuitively reflects the cooling degree of the land market. On the supply side, affected by the Spring Festival and centralized land supply, the pace of land supply slowed down; On the enterprise side, affected by various financial regulation policies, the willingness and ability to acquire land are reduced under the pressure of real estate enterprises' funds.
However, the internal differentiation of 50 representative enterprises is significant, and some of them have stable cash flow. Enterprises have a positive attitude towards land acquisition, such as China Resources Land in the first camp and New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) real estate in the second camp. Land acquisition in January increased year-on-year.
From the perspective of land acquisition amount of various urban agglomerations, the heat of the Yangtze River Delta has not decreased. In January, the land acquisition amount of top 10 enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta was 22.4 billion yuan, still ranking first in the three regions; The land acquisition amount of the top 10 enterprises in the central and western regions was 8.3 billion yuan, ranking second. In terms of land acquisition area, the top 10 enterprises in the central and western regions ranked first in the three regions with a land acquisition area of 4.96 million square meters, and continued to lead.
The overall financing scale was reduced by 70%
2022 is still the peak year for real estate enterprises to repay debts. The total amount of bonds due during the year is close to trillion yuan, of which the debt due in January, March, April and July exceeds 100 billion yuan.
According to the statistics of Shell Research Institute, there is a 57 billion yuan gap in the matured debt of real estate enterprises in January.
Specifically, in January, the scale of debt due for domestic and foreign bond financing was about 105.1 billion yuan, a significant increase of 79.4% over the previous month, a year-on-year decrease of 27.3%, and the net debt due was 57 billion yuan. According to the current average monthly bond issuance scale of 50 billion yuan, the debt repayment pressure of real estate enterprises is still large, and the traditional model of "borrowing the new to repay the old" of real estate enterprises may be difficult to overcome.
The concentrated outbreak of real estate enterprise risks in the second half of 2021 makes it difficult for the wait-and-see mood in the capital market to dissipate in the short term. According to the data of the shell Research Institute, the domestic and foreign bond financing of real estate enterprises totaled about 48.1 billion yuan in January, a sharp year-on-year decrease of 70%. From the monthly situation, the scale of bond issuance in January maintained the scale level of 50 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of last year, down 7% month on month.
financing scale of real estate enterprise bonds from January 2014 to January 2022
source: wind, compiled by Shell Research Institute
Unlike the US dollar bond market in the first month of 2021, due to the moderate easing of domestic credit, the bond financing of real estate enterprises is still dominated by domestic bonds at the beginning of 2022, and the scale of overseas bonds accounts for only 30%, a decrease of 24 percentage points compared with the same period of 2021.
In terms of coupon rate, it is mainly affected by the structure of bond issuers. 41 of the 48 domestic bonds are issued by state-owned enterprises; In January, domestic and foreign financing costs fell structurally, with an average coupon rate of 3.51%, down 54 basis points from the previous month.
It is worth noting that China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) and China Construction Development Corporation successfully issued 1.29 billion yuan and 1 billion yuan of M & A bonds respectively, and clarified the purpose of financing. This is a positive response to the policy at the end of 2021. It is expected that more high-quality real estate enterprises will issue M & A bonds in 2022.
The average coupon rate of overseas bond financing rose sharply by 263 basis points to 8.63%. In January, in addition to leading real estate enterprises such as country garden and Greentown China, the issuer also involved some real estate enterprises with negative public opinion. Therefore, the interest rate differentiation of overseas bonds further intensified, with interest rates ranging from 2.30% to 13.50%.
Another feature of bond issuance in January is the prevalence of short-term bonds. The average term of domestic bond financing issuance is 3.9 years, a decrease of about 1.1 years from the previous month, mainly because the proportion of short-term bonds increases to 29% within one year, affecting the performance of the overall bond issuance cycle
