The real estate industry is in a period of change. The chairman of the board of directors of Vanke analyzed the development of the industry in his concluding speech at the 2022 meeting of Vanke Group, and made corresponding arrangements for Vanke's strategy, organization and culture this year.
Yu Liang said that the first feature of the current external environment is that the industry has entered the stage of shrinking and clearing. For the real estate industry, shrinking and clearing is de financialization. It is not allowed for real estate to occupy too many financial resources, nor for residents to bear a high debt burden due to buying a house, because these financial resources do not effectively support the real economy.
Yu Liang pointed out that this year is a year for Vanke to overcome its difficulties and fight back, and it is also the beginning of a new era. Stop harboring illusions and clear up quickly and resolutely. For us, it is a battle of life and death. "To adapt to the reality that the industry returns to the attribute of people's livelihood, don't expect prices to rise."
the following are the main points of Yu Liang's speech summarized by the 21st Century Business Herald reporter:
1. Real estate returns to the attribute of people's livelihood. Don't expect prices to rise
Yu Liang pointed out that real estate de financialization is a trend and a painful process. This year is the year of Vanke's desperate battle, which means whether to die or live without intermediate status. If we can solve the burden accumulated in the past, we will have the opportunity to start a new journey. If we can't get rid of the burden, we can't live.
Yu Liang also talked about his understanding of the new model of industry development. His prediction can be summarized as one center and three basic points. One center is to solve the Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) housing problem. The three basic points are housing without speculation, simultaneous rent and purchase and the matching of people, land and housing.
among them, housing without speculation is actually two aspects of "housing" and "no speculation". "The house is for living" is to effectively solve the reasonable living needs of residents. "No speculation" means that although some restrictions on house purchase may be relaxed, speculation is still not allowed, and the increase limit will be retained. In addition, there are ways to control investment speculation, such as taxation or restricted transfer.
It is worth noting that Yu Liang mentioned that the total amount of is also decreasing as the demand for house purchase is continuously met.
In terms of both rent and purchase, Yu Liang believes that although renting housing is an opportunity, it also means that just in need buyers can choose between "rent" and "purchase", which will divert the demand for buying a house. Even if the demand for renting houses increases, it can not hedge the decline of the scale of developing business and selling houses.
With regard to the matching relationship among people, land and houses, Yu Liang analyzed that the previous distribution of construction land indicators did not match the distribution of population, the urban supply of population inflow was generally insufficient, and the relationship between land and houses did not match. In the new development model, the relationship between people, land and houses may be improved. The housing supply in core and major cities will increase, and some unmet improvement needs in the past due to purchase restrictions and other reasons may be released in the future. but we should adapt to the reality that the industry returns to the attribute of people's livelihood and don't expect prices to rise.
2. The era of black iron in the property market is coming. Don't pretend to be a "setter"
In the face of more intense competition after the market shrinkage, Yu Liang said that Vanke's organization should also adapt.
Yu Liang pointed out that Vanke should find a new anchor point in the era of black iron in the property market. This anchor point is reflected in all aspects, such as welfare and subsidies, which should adapt to the era of black iron. At this point in time, only one step in place to establish a new anchor point before starting, otherwise we can't get rid of the inertia of the golden age of the property market. Yu Liang mentioned that the income of Vanke employees will definitely decrease significantly this year.
According to Yu Liang's judgment, the real estate industry is already a low profit industry of about 10%, and the process also needs to be rebuilt. Taking Byd Company Limited(002594) as an example, he pointed out that Wang Chuanfu told him that Byd Company Limited(002594) except for tires and glass, they all produce their own products, because each part has a manufacturer, and each manufacturer has to earn 10% profit. If they put them together, they can't make money.
This is very different from the thinking of the real estate industry in the past. Yu Liang mentioned that in the past, every link of real estate could be outsourced. After outsourcing, we can still make money, but we may not be able to do it today. If all the work is fake and everyone has to earn 10%, we certainly have no money to earn, so we need process reengineering.
Yu Liang stressed that many of our current charging models using cost plus methods will be overturned. In the past, the way of big hands, second setters and fake hands must not be feasible.
3. All work is carried out around the back water battle. We can only talk about heroes based on performance
Yu Liang said that Vanke is currently working in a backwater battle, and all work is centered on war.
In this context, Yu Liang said that Vanke should strengthen performance. Heroes can only be judged by winning or losing, and cadres can only be selected from the ranks that win wars; Managers should all sink and take the lead. In the face of strong performance, it is very problematic for managers to take the lead and sink down actively.
Yu Liang stressed that in the face of a big battle, even with the best weapons and lax discipline, we can't win the war. Strict discipline is not only a matter of orders and prohibitions, but also investment discipline and various bottom line disciplines.
Win all-round and long-distance race {123567}
At the end of his speech, Yu Liang issued a mobilization to all.
Yu Liang said that only if we dare to fight, there is still a chance to win, but if we dare not fight, the result must be failure. We have no choice. Only if we dare to fight, can we get a glimmer of vitality.
What are the criteria for winning a war? Yu Liang pointed out that only by taking "particularly good" as the standard can we ask ourselves. Otherwise, if you can't do it very well, it's just dying. It's meaningless. Three particularly good requirements are to be a professional expert, an all-round champion and a winner in long-distance running.
Yu Liang analyzed that being a professional expert told us that we should not be satisfied with being an amateur. We should not compare with ourselves in the past, but with the benchmark in the industry. If you have become an industry benchmark, you should compare it with the goal of greater excellence. For example, he said that when the level of marathon was not high ten years ago, running for three hours was a very good result, but not in a few years. Because this result has been overturned, it is necessary to become a professional expert to do particularly well.
As for why we should be the all-round champion, Yu Liang said that the era of relying on one recruit to eat the world has ended. Now we should pay equal attention to development, operation and service, which is also Vanke's new triathlon. Just running a marathon is not enough. We also need to be good at swimming and cycling. We must be an all-round champion. Because only being an all-round champion can make a profit. As in the past, it is impossible to make money by doing individual items separately.
The understanding of the long-distance winner is that Vanke must stick to it for a long time, do the right thing for a long time, and do not violate discipline, so that we can play particularly well. "If we dare to fight, can fight and are willing to fight together, we will win, and we will win very well." Yu Liang said.
