In the first week after the opening of the lunar year of the tiger, after the "good start" on the first day, the differentiation of the three major stock indexes intensified in the shock, showing a pattern of strong Shanghai and deep weakness. At the same time, the market investment style is also quietly changing. On the one hand, some undervalued stocks such as finance, real estate and infrastructure are strengthening, and on the other hand, hot track stocks such as new energy and medicine are falling. Can the future A-share market usher in the spring market? This topic sorted out the trading characteristics of the first week of the year of the tiger through a large amount of data, and conducted in-depth interviews with eight chief economists and chief strategic analysts to talk about A-share investment opportunities.
the economic trend in the first quarter is expected to exceed expectations
eight chief executives talk about post Festival investment opportunities
Since the Spring Festival of the year of the tiger, a series of leading indicators have released the "warmth" of China's economy and played a positive role in the A-share market. The chief economists and chief strategic analysts of eight major institutions, including YueKai securities, Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) , Chuancai securities, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , Xinda securities, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) , Baoxin finance and Qianhai open source fund, are optimistic about the future structural opportunities, The main line of "steady growth" has become the key goal of the layout.
With the steady growth policy gradually forming a joint force, how will the economic trend develop in the first quarter of this year?
Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said: "PMI has been in the boom level for three consecutive months. The forward-looking signals of economic recovery and credit stabilization have appeared, and the economic performance in the first quarter of this year will exceed market expectations."
Chen Mengjie, chief strategist of YueKai Securities Research Institute, interviewed by the reporter of Securities Daily, said: "In 2022, the economy will face triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in January, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points month on month; the non manufacturing PMI was 51.1%, down 1.6 percentage points. At present, the downward pressure on economic growth is the focus of attention, and" steady growth "will be the main theme throughout 2022. From the whole year to run From a perspective, the inventory cycle in 2022 is expected to go through the stage from passive replenishment to active destocking, corresponding to Merrill Lynch clock and Jugra cycle, which are in a double cycle downward stage this year. It is expected that the annual GDP growth rate will drop to 5, and the total demand is expected to return to endogenous growth. China's economic development is facing the challenge of kinetic energy transformation. "
Deng Lijun, chief strategist of Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) holding the same view, told the reporter of Securities Daily: "The high-frequency and leading data in January show that the pressure on steady economic growth is still large, but after the intensive statement of the policy level and the coordinated development of monetary and fiscal forces, the policy synergy is also gathering, and the economy is expected to show obvious characteristics of first low and then high in the first quarter. With the successive convening of the local two sessions since January, the economic growth target of most provinces in 2022 is above 5.5% There is a high probability that the national economic growth target is set at 'about 5.5%'
"The tone of 'steady growth' in 2022 is clear. It is expected that fiscal policy and monetary policy will work together to form a basic support for the macro economy." Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai securities and director of the Research Institute, told reporters. "First of all, in terms of PPI data, the year-on-year increase began to decline in December last year, mainly due to the implementation of the energy quality assurance and price stabilization policy represented by coal and the decline of raw material prices. From the current market situation, the global non-ferrous crude oil price still shows a strong upward trend in the near future. At the same time, under the background of low PPI base in 2021, the PPI growth rate is expected to remain unchanged Relatively high. Secondly, in terms of CPI index, China's consumer market was generally stable in the first quarter, pork prices remained relatively low, gasoline and diesel increased, and CPI is expected to grow steadily. Third, in terms of PMI, the pace of China's special bond issuance has accelerated. At the same time, many places will usher in the commencement of projects in spring, which will form a basic support for PMI data. It is expected that it will remain above the boom and bust line in the first quarter. "
In an environment where economic data are expected to improve, which industries can become new hot spots in the market?
Chen Li said that the policy tone of "steady growth" has formed a basic support for the macro-economy, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the market. However, under the disturbance of overseas risks, it is suggested to lay out more from the perspective of "policy side" and "profit side": first, pay attention to the non-ferrous industry with good performance, low valuation and price rise expectation; Second, pay attention to the digital economy, power, infrastructure and other directions catalyzed by policies.
Fan Jituo, chief strategist at Cinda securities, said that the undervalued sector related to steady growth is expected to continue to generate excess returns. On the whole, the market is biased in value in the first half of the year, and the growth in the second half of the year is likely to return in an all-round way. Generally, financial real estate can advance and retreat in the middle and later stages of economic downturn, and the steady growth will be gradually strengthened, which can continue to exceed the allocation until the second quarter.
Zhang Xia said that the undervalued value + depression strategy is still the core strategy this year. First of all, the cycle varieties that benefit from steady growth and high prices and have further upward expectations are the first choice for investment. Secondly, new energy infrastructure, new energy infrastructure and digital infrastructure have now become an important starting point for the steady growth of market consensus. In February, considering the performance logic, event catalysis and valuation level, it is suggested to pay attention to new energy infrastructure: photovoltaic, wind power, lithium battery, etc; Whether the Winter Olympics will become a catalyst for hydrogen energy application deserves attention. Digital infrastructure pays attention to the undervalued varieties of communication.
Chen Mengjie believes that from the market performance this week, the future market can layout two main lines of "growth main line + dilemma reversal". First, steady growth will remain the main line of recent allocation. At present, China's economy is in the stage of "after the mobilization of steady growth and the increase of monetary easing, and before the implementation of steady growth policy and the end of the economy". Recently, senior officials repeatedly mentioned that fiscal policy should be strengthened in advance and infrastructure investment should be carried out moderately in advance. Therefore, steady growth will still be the main allocation line in the near future. It is suggested to pay attention to building materials, household appliances, real estate and other industries in the infrastructure and real estate chain, In the subsequent stage of steady growth and remarkable effect, we pay attention to the energy transformation, high-end manufacturing, digital economy and other directions dominated by relative profit growth. Second, global economic activities have gradually stepped out of the haze of the epidemic and paid attention to the "dilemma reversal" sector. With the increase of vaccination rate, the impact of the epidemic on the economy is decreasing marginally, and the global supply impact and industrial chain may be repaired gradually. The sectors affected by the epidemic and the obstruction of supply chain are expected to face a dilemma reversal. Superimposed on the continuous narrowing trend of ppi-cpi scissors difference in 2022, it is conducive to the repair and improvement of profitability of relevant sectors. It is suggested to pay attention to agriculture and animal husbandry, transportation Big finance, home appliances and other directions.
three dimensional comprehensive analysis of the market in the first week of the year of the tiger
Through the detailed analysis and observation of the market performance in the first week of the year of the tiger, experts generally said that this round of Shanghai index rise can be analyzed and interpreted from three dimensions. The good start of the first week is not only directly related to the sharp correction of A-Shares before the festival and the low valuation of individual sectors, but also related to the return of abundant funds since 2022. Of course, it is also related to the changes of peripheral markets and the stimulation of news during the Spring Festival.
First, from the perspective of valuation, Li Daxiao, chief economist of Yingda securities, told Securities Daily: "Before the Spring Festival, the Shanghai stock index fell from 3700 points to 3400 points, and experienced a substantial adjustment. The adjustment speed was relatively fast and the adjustment range was relatively large. Many industry sector indexes and individual stock prices also adjusted by a considerable margin. I think the rise of the Shanghai stock index after the Spring Festival is based on the substantial adjustment before the festival."
Li Daxiao said that this round of rise is driven by undervalued sectors. The adjustment of A-share market before the Spring Festival has a significant feature, that is, the adjustment of overvalued stocks is dominated, while undervalued stocks dominated by big finance, banking, real estate and infrastructure are rising. On the whole, the overvalued track has undergone significant adjustment, while the undervalued track has increased significantly, thus driving the rise of the whole market.
Secondly, the release of liquidity is an important driving force to promote the rise of the market index. On February 10, the central bank released financial data for January. In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, a monthly statistical high. The scale of social financing increased by 6.17 trillion yuan, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The balance of broad money (M2) increased by 9.8% year-on-year.
Li Daxiao said: "The central bank's attitude is quite clear. The national development and Reform Commission also said that it has the ability to stabilize the economy. Eight provinces and cities issued an investment list of 15.6 trillion yuan. From the beginning of 2022, the scale of social financing and M2 growth rate have picked up. Coupled with the operation of interest rate reduction, it can be seen that the central bank is gradually opening the policy toolbox and has a very positive attitude."
Zheng Lei, chief economist of Baoxin finance, also interpreted the current round of market from the perspective of liquidity. He told the reporter of Securities Daily: "In 2022, the state started to invest in infrastructure earlier than in previous years. The social finance data in January this year also reflects that a large amount of funds are entering key projects all over the country. Before the Spring Festival, some institutions have expected this situation and built their positions in advance. By industry, the index of building decoration, steel, public utilities and non-ferrous metals is among the highest. This is also related to the bank index The rise of benefited from the loose monetary environment in the first quarter, valuation repair and defensive conservatism. "
"The rise of the Shanghai stock index is mainly due to the convergence of the market's understanding of the 'steady growth' policy. At present, the market is focused on the direction of infrastructure construction, so the upstream and downstream industrial chains of Daji construction are beginning to show some performance," Liu Yan, chairman of anjue assets, told the Securities Daily
From the perspective of capital, pan Helin, executive dean and professor of the Digital Economy Research Institute of Zhongnan University of economics and law, told the Securities Daily: "the sustained net inflow of foreign capital is encouraged by China's economic fundamentals, the strong RMB exchange rate and the good macroeconomic data." Zheng Lei said: "most of the time before the Spring Festival, northbound funds were net inflows, reflecting that the expectation of foreign capital is basically consistent with the rhythm of the market."
"Usually before the Spring Festival, the capital level is the most tight. After the lunar new year, there is usually capital return, which promotes the upward trend of the market. Before the Spring Festival, all units should pay bonuses, and migrant workers should also settle their wages. The cashing problem is prominent, and the capital level is naturally tight. The capital return after the festival will inevitably bring phased easing of capital level and better market performance." Li Daxiao said.
Third, from the perspective of the impact of the external market and the news of a shares, pan Helin said: "most of the heavyweights of the Shanghai stock index are concentrated in the upper reaches of the industry, there are more resource-based enterprises, while international commodities and global inflation are in the upward cycle, so the improvement of the performance of resource-based listed companies, especially energy listed companies, is conducive to the strength of a shares." Li Daxiao said that during the Spring Festival, the international oil price broke through the $90 / barrel mark, which is related to the strength of cyclical industries after the Spring Festival, such as petroleum and petrochemical, coal, building materials and other industry indexes.
Liu Cunxin, assistant fund manager of private placement paipai.com, told the Securities Daily: "before the Spring Festival, affected by factors such as risk aversion and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, investors' excessive panic was released, and began to return to rationality after the festival. The Shanghai Stock Index staged a round of rebound to repair the situation." Pan Helin also said, "the two sessions of the National People's Congress are about to be held, and investors expect the policy of stimulating domestic demand to be ready. Therefore, the rise of industry indexes such as architectural decoration and public utilities reflects investors' expectations for favorable policies."
undervalued blue chips are sought after by funds
the net purchase during the period of northbound capital exceeded 10 billion yuan
On the first trading day after the Spring Festival, the A-share market ushered in the "good start" of the year of the tiger, and the three indexes closed up collectively. However, since then, the indexes have gradually differentiated. Reviewing the market performance in the first week of the year of the tiger, the overall market pattern of "Shanghai is strong and deep is weak" is presented. Specifically, from February 7 to February 11, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.02% to 3462.95 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.78% to 13224.38 points, and the gem index fell 5.59% to 2746.38 points; Judging from the rising days of this week, the Shanghai index rose for four consecutive trading days, and the Shenzhen Component Index and gem index rose only on the first day after the festival. In addition, the total daily turnover of the two cities this week was less than 1 trillion yuan.
In terms of funds going north, there were four trading days this week showing a net buying trend. The total net buying amount this week was 10.744 billion yuan, including a net inflow of 17.354 billion yuan during the Shanghai Stock connect and a net outflow of 6.610 billion yuan from the Shenzhen Stock connect.
In terms of financing and financing, as of February 10, the balance of financing and financing in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 172.352 billion yuan, an increase of 8.141 billion yuan over the end of January, of which the balance of financing was 1624.158 billion yuan, an increase of 3.873 billion yuan over the end of January; The balance of securities lending was 97.194 billion yuan, an increase of 4.268 billion yuan compared with the end of January. The increased positions of customers who obtained financing in computer, power equipment, architectural decoration and other sectors exceeded 1 billion yuan.
In terms of industries, from the perspective of shenwanyi level industries, 25 industries rose during the period, and the coal industry led the increase, up to 13.86%. The cumulative increase of petroleum and Petrochemical (7.98%), building decoration (7.85%) and building materials (7.02%) also ranked among the top during the period. There was a large correction during the period of power equipment, with a cumulative decrease of 8.18%, and electronics, medicine and biology decreased by 3.32% and 2.73% respectively. It is noteworthy that three industries, including petroleum and petrochemical, building materials and non bank finance, rose continuously in five trading days in the first week of the year of the tiger.
How to view the market style transformation after the Spring Festival? Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan, told the Securities Daily that the market style has changed after the festival. Undervalued blue chips are sought after by funds, while some growth stocks have fallen sharply. This is because growth stocks rose sharply in the early stage, and undervalued blue chips such as banks and real estate have been silent for many years, seriously lagging behind these growth stocks. As the current policy objectives focus on steady growth, the national development and Reform Commission has also issued a series of measures. This year, infrastructure investment will further accelerate, which will be good for relevant sectors. In terms of real estate regulation, the real estate enterprises that did not touch the three red lines increased credit, which played a role in stabilizing market confidence and triggered a rebound in the banking and real estate sectors. However, this is only a rebound. It is expected that there will be greater differentiation among real estate enterprises in the future.
Zhang Xia, chief strategist of China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , told the reporter of Securities Daily: "After the rapid decline of the market, pessimism has been released: on the one hand, it has entered a performance vacuum period; on the other hand, the" two sessions "will be held on March 4, and the market will have new expectations for" steady growth ". From February to March, the possibility of further easing of the central bank's monetary policy cannot be ruled out. Therefore, the market is expected to focus on the steady growth expectation of new and old infrastructure and the direction of independent prosperity Rebound. Historically, capital outflow pressure is still one of the negative factors affecting A-Shares under the background of US interest rate hike; The bond issuance data and high-frequency real estate transactions in January show that the financing demand has not recovered significantly, and the downward pressure on the performance in the first quarter is still large. Therefore, the market will continue to bottom after the rebound and wait for a new inflection point signal. "
In terms of individual stocks, 2983 individual stocks rose this week, accounting for more than 60% of the total number of a shares. Among them, Hengbao Co.Ltd(002104) , Beijing Yuanlong Yato Culture Dissemination Co.Ltd(002878) , Huitong group, Zhejiang Construction Investment Group Co.Ltd(002761) , Poly Union Chemical Holding Group Co.Ltd(002037) and other five individual stocks increased by more than 60% during the period.
In terms of new shares, three stocks landed in the A-share market in the first week of the year of the tiger, and all rose on the first day of listing. Among them, CICA safely landed on the science and Innovation Board of Shanghai Stock Exchange, up 27.53% on the first day of listing.
