Since the opening of the market in the year of the tiger, the share price of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) known as "lithium Mao" has been "falling endlessly", falling for five trading days and four trading days. According to wind data, as of the closing on February 11, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) reported 489.99 yuan / share, down 5.43%, the turnover rate was 1.18%, and the cumulative decline this week was 17.32%.
Just as the market rumors continued and the reasons for the decline in the share price of lithium battery giants were speculated one after another, capital securities issued a research report on Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , saying that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) still has 20% room for decline in the future, and it is suggested to ship at a high price. UBS believes that the recent decline of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is caused by the correction of the beta value of the gem in the sector rotation from growth stocks to value stocks. It is expected that there is a lot of room for revision of the consensus profit forecast for fiscal year Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2022. Many fund sources said that there is no need to be too pessimistic about investment in the new energy industry.
market sentiment fluctuates greatly
From the disk, the stock price of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has risen sharply in the past two years, with a cumulative increase of 230.49% in 2020 and 67.55% in 2021. According to the data released by the agency recently, the installed capacity of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) global battery reached 96.7gwh in 2021, with a market share of 32.6%, ranking first in the world for five consecutive years.
On December 3, 2021, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) share price ushered in a high light moment since its listing, reaching a peak of 692 yuan / share at one time, but then started a downward trend. As of February 11, 2022, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) share price fell by nearly 30% at the higher point, and the share price has corrected by 16.67% since 2022. As an important heavyweight of gem, affected by the sharp decline of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) share price, the gem index has fallen by 5.59% in the five trading days since the year of the tiger.
Capital Securities said in the research report that the trend of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) in 2021 is strongly similar to that of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in 2022. They are the industry leaders of the hottest track, recognized by institutional investors and have heavy positions. The performance growth rate is still strong, and there is no problem of insufficient growth.
Capital Securities believes that analyzing the future rise and fall of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) from the perspective of short-term market sentiment can refer to the stock price trend of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) in 2021. Judging by fitting, the adjustment of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) may not be over, and there may still be 20% room for decline in the future.
According to the data, as of September 30, 2021, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) shareholders had 134000 households. Among the top ten shareholders, Hillhouse capital, Shenzhen Zhaoyin No. 3 equity investment partnership and Hubei Changjiang Zhaoyin power investment partnership successively reduced their holdings of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in the second and third quarters of 2021.
"ningwang" is basically good
Recent market rumors about the sharp decline of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) share price continue. In response to the online news that " Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is seeking help from professional institutions in the United States to inquire about the possibility of being sanctioned by the United States", Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) responded to China Securities News · China Securities Taurus reporter that it was false information.
It is also rumored that there are large funds to redeem the products of Ge Lan, the fund manager of China Europe Fund Management Company. "Ge Lan was redeemed for 40 billion yuan, mainly selling new energy and scenery. They made a lot of 'ningwang' at a high level. Several industry wide funds of Ge Lan bought 70% of new energy." In this regard, China Europe Fund said that the online rumors of "large redemption" are untrue. Please don't believe the rumors.
UBS said it was still optimistic about Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fundamentals, and its recently updated fundamentals were better than expected. The revenue data of fiscal year 2021 was 30% - 40% higher than the market consensus expectation.
According to the performance forecast of 2021 disclosed by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , the company expects the net profit of 2021 to be 14-16.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 150.75% - 195.52%. This is the highest net profit level since Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) was listed in 2018. Among them, the net profit in the fourth quarter of 2021 is expected to be 6.249 billion yuan - 8.749 billion yuan, equivalent to the total net profit in the first three quarters, with a significant increase of 91% - 167% month on month.
Previously, the average profit forecast of many institutions for Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2021 was 11.23 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 101.14%. This also means that the performance of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) far exceeded market expectations.
UBS pointed out that the company's management attributed the strong earnings to the accelerated popularity of electric vehicles, the introduction of new capacity batteries and the decline in the control cost ratio of operating costs. Despite some one-off projects, UBS still expects that there is a lot of room for revision of the consensus profit forecast for fiscal year Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2022.
don't be too pessimistic about the new energy industry
For the performance of leading new energy stocks, a 10 billion private placement said that it had reduced the configuration proportion of popular tracks such as lithium batteries and new energy vehicles, but it may pay attention to some leading companies with killed valuations in the future. "After the hot track sectors such as new energy vehicles and lithium batteries increased greatly last year, considering the crowded track and the possible reduction of the growth rate in 2022 compared with 2021, the configuration has been reduced. However, the valuation of some companies has been killed very low, and we may gradually pay attention to some leading companies in the future, but we will not over configure them." He said.
Many institutions believe that the valuation of some new energy stocks has a certain cost performance, and the allocation can be gradually increased in the adjustment. A public fund manager said that he was increasing his position in new energy. A public fund source said: "we judge that the rise of blue chip will last until April at most, and the long-term main line is still new energy. At present, there are differences within the company on the market, but it is agreed that there are deterministic opportunities for new energy."
Wei Wei, senior strategic analyst of Huaxia Fund, said in the live broadcast room of China Securities News that due to the suppression of peripheral liquidity and the market's strict expectations for performance, the new energy sector has experienced a correction recently. However, he judged that the performance probability of new energy this year has an advantage. "In the recent market adjustment, many of our portfolios are increasing the allocation of new energy, because we think it is a relatively cost-effective allocation point. From the perspective of the whole year, don't be overly pessimistic about new energy. From the perspective of fundamentals, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles is increasing rapidly this year. Looking forward to this year and next, the valuation rate of many new energy companies is probably low 35 times or even 25 times, which is very cost-effective for manufacturing companies. The inflection point of new energy is approaching, and the prosperity is still dominant throughout the year. " However, he also said that affected by the overvalued value, the volatility of the new energy sector will be relatively large, and individual stocks need to be carefully selected. Not all new energy companies will grow.
