On February 11, the three major A-share indexes weakened and collectively closed down. As of the closing, the Shanghai index fell 0.66%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 1.55% and the gem index fell 2.84%; The total turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 991.5 billion yuan; The divergence of northbound funds increased during the day. After several intraday fluctuations, it entered the market again in the late trading to sweep goods, and bought a net 1.005 billion yuan throughout the day. Among them, the Shanghai Stock connect net bought 2.359 billion yuan and the Shenzhen Stock connect net sold 1.354 billion yuan. In terms of overall performance, A-Shares generally fell, and more than 4000 stocks fell. Looking back on the trend of the major indexes on Wednesday, the Shanghai index rose by 3.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.78% and the gem index fell by 5.59%.
For the market performance in the first week of the year of the tiger, analysts believe that it shows structural characteristics. Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times, said that the recent correction of Ning index is obvious. At the capital level, the monetary tone continuously tightened by the Federal Reserve and the US CPI released on Thursday night slow down the inflow of foreign capital, which is unfavorable to the “Ning index” of foreign positions. Hao Xinming, manager of Fangxin wealth investment fund, believes that the market has fallen continuously after new year’s day, the short-term risk has been fully released, the investor sentiment has cooled, the track stocks have been trampled, the hot spots are concentrated in a few fields such as digital currency and large infrastructure construction, the trading volume has shrunk rapidly, and the land volume is expected to pay the land price.
For the short-term trend in the future, institutions are generally pessimistic. Xia Fengguang, manager of private placement fund paipai.com, said that at present, the major economies in the world are not only facing inflation, but also facing the constraints of peaking economic fundamentals. The major economies in Europe and the United States will soon face the situation of China in the second half of last year in terms of cycle operation, and the process of monetary tightening is difficult to continue. For example, the progress of the next actual interest rate increase cycle is less than expected, There will be corrective actions in the capital market.
Zhao Yuanyuan said that in terms of market preference, the rapidly expanding issuance scale of special bonds and strong credit growth expectation in January lead the market preference to a cyclical style, and the growth and consumption are relatively weak. These negative conditions will be amplified in the market environment of insufficient trading volume. Since the excess renewal amount of MLF in February is likely to be lower than that in January, it is expected that the market will bottom again after the return of risk aversion funds in the Spring Festival.
There are many promising institutions in the medium and long term. Jufeng finance and Economics said that in the medium term, the liquidity at the macro level has gradually improved, and the central bank has continuously cut reserve requirements and interest rates to release liquidity, indicating that the policy bottom has appeared; The medium-term market is expected to rise, but the construction of the market bottom is more complex and there is a time lag between the market bottom and the policy bottom. We should be more patient.
Chen Jiecheng, fund manager of Fende capital, also said that he was optimistic about the medium and long-term of a shares. Chen Jiecheng believes that the current downward pressure on economic growth has become the main contradiction. The central economic work conference at the end of the year once again mentioned “six stabilities”, “six guarantees” and “appropriate policy development”, indicating the urgency of stabilizing the economy. Looking forward to the future, the background of loose monetary policy remains unchanged, while the logic of undervaluation of financial stocks remains. After judging that the uncertainty after the festival is eliminated, A-Shares will open the spring market and be optimistic about the undervalued financial sector and the old infrastructure sector.
The industry sector showed more gains and less losses. From the perspective of Shenwan industry, there are seven categories of industries rising, with coal rising first, up to 1.28%, followed by banks rising by 1.13; In addition, 24 industries fell, with medicine and biology leading the decline, reaching 3.31%, and power equipment falling by more than 3%
prepared by: Zhao Ziqiang
I. The concept of digital currency led the rise
In terms of specific hot spots, China stock market news digital currency sector led the rise strongly on Friday, up 1.97%, and has risen 10.39% in recent three days. The following conceptual sectors, such as lithium extraction from Salt Lake, power battery recovery and REITs concept, were active, with an increase of more than 1%.
In the digital currency sector, Beijing Advanced Digital Technology Co.Ltd(300541) and Shenzhen Forms Syntron Information Co.Ltd(300468) closed at the 20cm limit. In addition, four stocks, including Guangzhou Kingteller Technology Co.Ltd(002177) , Hengbao Co.Ltd(002104) , Jc Finance & Tax Interconnect Holdings Ltd(002530) , Chutian Dragon Co.Ltd(003040) , closed at the 10cm limit.
According to the news, on February 11, the general office of the Beijing Municipal People’s government issued a notice on three lists, including the list of policies on promoting the high-quality development of Beijing Sub Center. It is pointed out that the people’s Bank of China should strive for the introduction of supporting policies to promote the pilot of legal digital currency in urban sub centers. We will build a pilot area for legal digital currency and a digital financial system, and actively attract large banks and other entities to set up digital RMB operating entities according to law.
The people’s Bank of China, the State Administration of market supervision, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission recently issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of financial standardization, which mentioned that we should steadily promote the development of legal digital currency standards; Comprehensively consider the security and credibility infrastructure, issuance system and storage system, registration center, payment transaction communication module, terminal application, etc., and explore the establishment and improvement of legal digital currency infrastructure standards.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) the securities table recommends two main lines: 1) hard wallet, that is, the new payment link, the explosive demand of landing and opening, recommending new payment channel suppliers Guangdong Tecsun Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002908) and benefiting target Feitian Technologies Co.Ltd(300386) ; 2) For the transformation of relevant bank IT systems promoted by the promotion of digital RMB, it manufacturers Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) , Tansun Technology Co.Ltd(300872) and Shenzhen Sunline Tech Co.Ltd(300348) are recommended.
II. Covid-19 drug concept led the decline
On Friday, covid-19 drug became the hardest hit area of decline, and there was also a large net outflow of funds. Individual stocks fell in an all-round way. Among the 26 stocks in the sector, 14 fell by more than 6%, and there was a net outflow of 1.65 billion yuan of large single funds.
On February 11, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) continued to fall sharply at the opening. As of the closing, the share price fell 13.07%. In fact, after the resumption of trading, the stock showed a trend of shock and decline. Since the year of the tiger, it has fallen by 44%, and the share price has fallen to 15.30 yuan from 27.32 yuan a year ago.
According to the news, on February 11, the State Information Office held a regular policy briefing to introduce the centralized procurement of drugs and high-value medical consumables. The state has organized centralized drug purchase and purchased 234 kinds of drugs in 6 batches, accounting for about 30% of the purchase amount of chemical and biological drugs in public medical institutions. In 2021, the special procurement of insulin was carried out, and the centralized procurement was expanded from chemical medicine to biological medicine for the first time. The collection of high-value medical consumables focuses on the fields of Cardiology and orthopedics.
The leading loser Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) said in the resumption announcement that the carbonic anhydride and its derivatives refer to compounds, not specifically the products produced by the company. It is impossible to determine that the carbonic anhydride and its derivatives produced by the company can be used to synthesize Pfizer covid-19 oral medicine. As for the business relationship with Pfizer, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) once again said that the company has no business contact and cooperation with Pfizer, has not signed a cooperation agreement with Pfizer, and has not supplied carlon anhydride products to Pfizer.
III. did “ningwang” fall in place?
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell sharply this week. As of Friday’s closing, it closed at 489.99 yuan, down 17.32% this week. Since the year of the tiger, the total market value of the stock has shrunk by 239.184 billion yuan, and the average household has shrunk by 17.823 billion yuan based on the number of 134200 shareholders at the end of the third quarter of last year.
The chief economist of capital securities issued a document saying that the future rise and fall of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) from the perspective of short-term market sentiment can refer to the stock price trend of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) in 2021. Through fitting, it can be judged that the adjustment of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) may not be over, and there may still be 20% room for decline in the future. It is recommended to sell.
However, UBS believes that the recent decline of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is due to the correction of the gem beta value in the sector rotation of growth stocks turning to value stocks. UBS is still optimistic about Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fundamentals. It points out that the recently updated fundamentals of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) are better than expected, and the revenue data of fiscal year 2021 is 30-40% higher than the consensus expectation. The management of the company attributed the strong revenue to: 1) the accelerated popularization of electric vehicles, the installation of energy storage, 2) the introduction of new capacity batteries, and 3) the reduction of the control cost ratio of operating costs. Despite some one-off projects, UBS still expects that there is a lot of room for revision of the consensus profit forecast for fiscal year Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2022.
