Yesterday, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell more than 8% again and has fallen 12.6% this week. There are many reasons for the decline in the market, so I won’t repeat them. The share price of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has been corrected from the high point. Whether it falls to the right place is the most critical issue at present. The question now is, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will it fall? How much more can you fall?
Although this question is very important, predicting the stock price is originally a very mysterious question, but it is always better than not. We try to provide an angle to explore the short-term trend of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and even new energy and overvalued sectors.
We believe that the trend of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) in 2021 is closely similar to that of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in 2022. Referring to the trend of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) may not have a bottom in the short term, and it is preferred to ship at high prices.
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) is a consumption track and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is a science and technology track. There are great differences in the logic and valuation of their stock prices. On the surface, it seems that the comparison between the two is different, but there are great commonalities behind the trend of their stock prices.
In recent years, value investment and track investment have become popular, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) as representatives of the two major tracks of consumption and technology, have been sought after by the whole market, especially institutional investors, who ranked among the top two heavyweight stocks in the annual report of the fund in 2021. As the two are the red cards of the whole market, the research on the fundamentals of the two must be very comprehensive. Its impact on the stock price has long been reflected.
since the change of fundamentals is small in the short term, it is more non fundamental factors that determine the short-term stock price, such as market microstructure, market sentiment and other variables. and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) as representatives of the two major tracks, they have too many similarities in these non fundamental factors. Although people can’t walk into two rivers at the same time, the market’s obsession with value investment and track investment, the operation mode of public funds and the reason of unchanged human nature make the stock price movements of the two have great similarities.
Meanwhile, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) faces a similar market environment as Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) in 2021:
the rising logic has been challenged
US bond yields rose sharply
the share price rose excessively and the track was highly crowded, resulting in negative feedback
generally speaking, both of them are similar paths: due to various favorable factors, they are sought after by the market and seriously deviate from the current reasonable valuation. When the rising logic is greatly challenged, an external catalyst triggers the falling market.
On the first point, we need to explain. In retrospect, although the trigger for the sharp decline of Maotai in 2021 is the rise of US debt, in addition to the overvalued value, the deep-seated reason behind it is the repeated epidemic in 2021 and the consumption pressure caused by the decline of economic fundamentals. The trend of food consumption has not changed significantly since August 2021. For Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , the central economic work conference’s adjustment of the “double carbon” policy to a certain extent and the dilution of the urgency of innovation to a certain extent under the background of “stable growth” are the key restrictive forces, and will run through the whole year.
From the law of historical data, the word frequency of innovation in the central economic work conference is closely related to the growth of the gem within two months after the conference. In the past few years, technology, especially hard technology, has entered a high valuation, and the stock price is easy to change under the condition of policy changes.
Once the trend changes, some non fundamental factors will play an important role in the short term.
We will standardize the high point of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) in 2021 and the high point of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in 2022, and infer the future trend of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) from the trend of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . from the fitting situation, the overall adjustment of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is not over, and there may still be 20% room for decline in the future. There may be a rebound in the process of adjustment, so it is recommended to ship every high.
if we fit the difference between the two and all a, the trend will be more obvious, and the callback of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) from the high point may not be over.
From the comparison between food and beverage and new energy, this is not limited to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . The whole new energy sector and hard technology sector are facing similar problems.
It is possible that the valuation of the social finance sector will be higher than expected after the stock market is repaired, and the valuation of the social finance sector may be higher than expected in January.
The above conclusions are based on the perspective of short-term market sentiment and microstructure. But in the long run, the power of fundamentals is more important. However, at present, we suggest to be cautious about the whole high valuation sector. It is still a relatively safe operation to underestimate more values and short high valuations.
Risk tip: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) performance growth exceeded expectations.
Chief economist of securities companies bearish Ningde embarrassed? Bearish roadshow will be temporarily cancelled, and bearish Research Report will be suddenly deleted
The Ningde bearish roadshow originally scheduled to be held by capital securities at 20:00 today was temporarily cancelled
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institutional view
UBS: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has ushered in a buying opportunity, with a target price of 700 yuan
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : maintain Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) “strongly recommended – a” rating and target price of 680-740 yuan
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) : give Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2022 target PE 60 times the target price of 764.4 yuan
