Recently, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) released preliminary statistics on global lithium and cobalt production in 2021.
Data show that in terms of lithium production, the global mine lithium production in 2021 was 100000 tons (excluding the United States), an increase of 21% over 82500 tons last year.
USGS believes that the output growth is mainly due to the strong demand of lithium-ion battery market and the rise of lithium price. Global lithium consumption in 2021 is estimated to be 93000 tons, up 33% from 70000 tons in 2020.
In its latest report, USGS pointed out that “the security of lithium supply has become the biggest concern of technology companies in Asia, Europe and the United States”.
The output of four lithium mines in Australia, two brine lithium mines in Argentina and two brine lithium mines in Chile, and two brine lithium mines and one hard rock lithium mine in China are in the forefront.
In addition, small mines in Brazil, China, Portugal, the United States and Zimbabwe are also the main sources of lithium production in the world.
In terms of cobalt production, USGS said that the global cobalt production in 2021 was 170000 tons, a record high, an increase of 20% compared with 142000 tons in 2020. Although new mines are put into operation and discontinued mines resume production, this increase in raw materials is mainly due to the increase in the output of existing mines.
Among them, the Democratic Republic of Congo remains the world’s largest cobalt producer, accounting for more than 70% of global cobalt production, followed by Russia (7600 tons) and Australia (5600 tons).
In the Chinese market, China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of refined cobalt, and 80% of cobalt is used for rechargeable batteries.
According to the data previously released by the lithium branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China’s lithium industry still maintained a rapid growth rate in 2021: the output of lithium carbonate was 298200 tons (about 500000 tons), an increase of about 59.47%; The output of lithium hydroxide was 190300 tons (about 260000 tons), with a year-on-year increase of about 105%. China’s lithium salt produced from China’s salt lake brine (60000 tons), lepidolite concentrate (60000 tons) and spodumene (10000 tons) and recovered lithium containing waste (30000 tons) is equivalent to about 160000 tons of lithium carbonate, and the dependence of lithium raw materials on foreign countries is about 65%.
In terms of cathode materials, according to the data of lithium industry branch, the output of cathode materials in China was about 11117000 tons (with a capacity of more than 1.7 million tons) in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 100.78%. Among them, the output of lithium cobaltate is 101000 tons, the output of ternary materials is 440500 tons, the output of lithium iron phosphate is 459100 tons, and the output of lithium manganate is 111100 tons.
In addition, according to the data of Antaike, the output of refined cobalt (including electrolytic cobalt, cobalt powder, cobalt salt, etc., converted into metal) in China was 128000 tons in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 26.7%; The output of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 240000 tons and 175000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 40.4% and 88.6%; The output of primary nickel (nickel products produced from raw biological materials, including electrolytic nickel, nickel pig iron, nickel salt, etc., converted into metal) was 669000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%.
In addition, according to the statistics of Antaike, the average spot prices of electrolytic nickel and electrolytic cobalt in 2021 were 137000 yuan / ton and 363000 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 25.6% and 40.1%; The average spot prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide were 122000 yuan / ton and 113000 yuan / ton respectively, up 177% and 117% year-on-year.
The output and price increase of lithium and cobalt in 2021 are much higher than expected. Looking forward to 2022, relevant institutions predict that the boom will continue.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is predicted that in terms of lithium, in 2022, with the elimination of the impact of long-term single pricing of major enterprises in South America and the continuous rise of lithium concentrate price, the global lithium price is expected to resonate upward. In the first half of 2022, the lithium carbonate price in South America will rise to US $25000 / T and the lithium concentrate price in Australia will rise to more than US $3000 / T, The price of lithium products in the Chinese market will remain high. The rapid rise of lithium price in 2021 has raised concerns about resource supply guarantee and cost control in the downstream of the industrial chain. Integrated lithium producers with mine resources also have the advantages of supply guarantee and low cost. In the future, the position of the industrial chain will continue to strengthen, and the profits of the industrial chain will gradually focus on it, fully benefiting from the rise of lithium price.
In terms of cobalt, in 2022, the cobalt industry will enter the third year of tight supply, which will increase the catalytic price. The cobalt price center is expected to operate at more than 450000 yuan / ton in 2022, an increase of more than 20% compared with 2021. The performance of cobalt Plate Companies in 2022 is expected to exceed expectations. In addition, relevant companies currently have significant undervaluation advantages, maintaining the rating of “stronger than the market” of cobalt sector.
