According to the World Gold Council, according to the latest data released by China Customs, China imported 818 tons of gold in 2021, 36% higher than that in 2020, close to the level in 2019. The World Gold Council pointed out that the strong recovery of China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) consumption in 2021 is the key factor to promote such a significant increase in gold imports.
The World Gold Council said that gold consumption remained strong during the Spring Festival. Gold consumption during the Spring Festival Golden Week is booming as expected. The strong promotion of retailers and the relatively low price of gold have also increased the attractiveness of gold jewelry products to consumers. According to the data of Shanghai gold jewelry industry association, the total consumption of gold jewelry in Shanghai reached 1.1 billion yuan during the Spring Festival, a year-on-year increase of 12%. Because 2022 is China's "year of the tiger", gold products with the theme of "tiger" are widely welcomed by consumers, while ancient French gold jewelry will continue to attract attention.
Due to the sporadic spread of the epidemic, many consumers choose to cancel their travel and tourism plans and celebrate the new year on the spot. The World Gold Council believes that the travel budget vacated by consumers may also be another key driver of strong holiday gold consumption.
The World Gold Council predicts that China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) demand may show a positive growth trend in 2022. On the one hand, the slowdown of economic growth and the decline of marriage rate, as a key demand influencing factor, may limit the growth of gold jewelry demand in 2022; On the other hand, if the gold price falls in 2022, China's gold jewelry demand may benefit from it (our analysis shows that when the gold price falls, the gold jewelry demand will rise in the same period).
As for the prospect of gold bullion and gold coin investment, the World Gold Council believes that the following factors may affect China's gold demand in 2022: first, the pricing transparency of China's gold jewelry market is higher; The second is the change of young consumer groups' taste and mentality of gold jewelry; Third, commercial banks focus on the sales of gold bars and gold coins.
