The financial Associated Press reporter learned from the financial management department and several banks today that the real estate loan in January ushered in a “good start”, and the new scale was further improved on the basis of the growth in the fourth quarter of last year. It is estimated that the new real estate loan in January is about 600 billion yuan, about 300 billion yuan more than the monthly average level in the fourth quarter, of which the real estate development loan is about 200 billion yuan more, Personal housing loans increased by about 100 billion yuan, and the financing behavior of financial institutions to real estate enterprises continued to improve.
In February, many banks still maintained a “loose state” for personal housing loans consistent with that in January. The financial Associated Press reporter learned from banks in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other places that at present, the speed of personal housing loan lending of banks is generally fast, and the bank approval and lending cycle is about one week. Since the first 15 weeks of the previous year were not in line with the law of housing loan, the loan was not repaid in the first 15 weeks of the previous year.
Will the growth rate of housing loans continue to rise in February? Some analysts believe that affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the increase of mortgage loans is expected to slow down in February. However, since this year, 36 cities have issued policies to stabilize the property market. The market is expected to continue to improve, and the real estate related credit data is expected to gradually pick up in the first half of the year.
in February, the overall “loose” state of bank housing loans will continue
In an interview with the financial Associated Press, the credit staff of many banks in many places said that “as long as all processes are completed, banks can lend”. From application to approval to lending, most of the surveyed banks said they could complete it within 1-2 months. In terms of interest rate, after the bank mortgage interest rate decreased by 0.05 percentage point with the LPR interest rate of more than five years at the end of January, although the mortgage interest rate of local banks has not been reduced again, it has been at a low level in recent one year.
However, affected by the factors of the Spring Festival holiday, not many customers have visited the door to handle business in the past week. “It’s not the 15th day of the first month yet. Buyers won’t be in such a hurry to apply for loans.” For the situation of scarce passenger flow, the person in charge of the personal loan department of a bank in Shenzhen is very indifferent, and the seasonal factor is one of the factors with less business in the first week after the festival. Another person from the Credit Department of Beijing regional bank also said that usually the real estate transaction volume is not high before the Spring Festival, so there are relatively few customers handling housing loans after the festival.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) Wang Yifeng, chief analyst of the financial industry, said that this year’s Lunar New Year is at the end of January. Considering the poor early sales and the pressure of mortgage loan amortization during the Spring Festival, the growth of mortgage loans may be delayed in February.
Insiders pointed out that with 36 cities successively issuing policies to stabilize the property market, the market expectation may be improved, and the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize in the first half of the year.
mortgage interest rates in some areas may still have room to reduce
In order to further meet the reasonable demand for housing loans, will the bank further relax the volume and price of housing loans? Some people believe that under the contradiction between supply and demand, there is a large downward space for mortgage pricing. However, some bankers believe that the role of further reducing interest rates is limited. The current interest rate level is already low, and there is little room for banks to reduce interest rates again.
Some insiders pointed out that in view of the huge volume of real estate and the upstream and downstream industrial chain driven by it, under the guidance of the principle of classified regulation, the majority of third and fourth tier cities other than hot cities in the real estate market can enjoy the “dividend” brought by policy fine-tuning. In the regulation of “adjusting measures to local conditions” in the real estate market, it is expected that the bank loan interest rate of some small and medium-sized cities will still change.
Wang Yifeng also believes that there is a large downward space for mortgage loan pricing, and the downward range of mortgage loan pricing may be greater than the reduction of LPR interest rate over 5 years.
Shenzhen real estate intermediary Association recently released an analysis report, pointing out that the downward interest rate and “deregulation” in many places may have a limited impact on Shenzhen. From the core analysis of “no speculation in housing and housing” proposed by the central regulator, taking Shenzhen as the fulcrum of the real estate market, through unswervingly and continuously adhering to the regulation and control policy, we can achieve the transition from “no speculation in housing and housing” to “no speculation in housing and housing”, and then to “no speculation in housing and housing”, so as to complete the fundamental reversal of market expectations.
A credit principal of a large state-owned bank in Shanghai also believes that for hot spots, the decline of interest rates can no longer drive the rise of housing loan growth, because in hot cities, the public has a consensus on the understanding of the real estate market, and the current real estate is not the best investment. Another banker also said that the current interest rate level is already low, and there is little room for banks to reduce interest rates again.
However, the market believes that the real estate credit policy is gradually stable, and all localities have constantly revised the regulation and control policies of the real estate market on the premise of adhering to the principle of “housing without speculation”, which is conducive to stabilizing the expectations of the real estate market.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Institute, believes that since January 2022, the national real estate regulation policies have been intensive, and the real estate regulation policies have been issued more than 70 times, of which 30 cities have issued policies to stabilize the real estate market. With the gradual stabilization of the policy, especially the stabilization of the credit policy in the fourth quarter of 2021 and the continuous release of stability maintenance signals by regulators, it means that the real estate market is expected to stabilize and recover gradually.
