On February 11, the continuous drizzle made Shanghai even colder. A Byd Company Limited(002594) 4S store in Shanghai is in full swing. Near lunch, there are still many groups of customers looking at the car in the store
"About 20 groups of customers come to see the car every day on weekdays, and more than 50 groups on weekends." Salesperson Su Qian told reporters that there are several new salespeople in this 4S store, and they can successfully sell more than 20 new cars in their first month.
Not only Byd Company Limited(002594) , a Tesla sales told reporters that from November 2020, he felt more like a "cashier" than sales, and his work was basically billing and collecting money.
To a certain extent, they all take advantage of the rapid development of the new energy vehicle market. According to the data of the passenger Federation, the retail sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars reached 2.989 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 169.1%. Shanghai is one of the five markets with the highest acceptance of new energy vehicles in China. Shanghai new car insurance data show that in 2021, among the top 15 models sold in Shanghai, new energy vehicles occupied seven seats, of which Tesla Model y and model 3 won the top two, with total sales of more than 20000; Byd Company Limited(002594) the cumulative sales volume of Han EV exceeded 7800, ranking 11th, far behind Volkswagen Passat and Toyota Camry, which sell at similar prices.
waiting for cars for months has become the norm
"I made a reservation last November and haven't mentioned the car yet." When communicating with many users who buy new energy vehicles, waiting for a car has become the most frequently mentioned word in their mouth.
In the process of visiting the 4S store of new energy vehicles, the reporter found that the product collection cycle of multiple brands has exceeded 10 weeks, and some popular models even need to wait 4-5 months to collect the car.
A Xiaopeng car salesperson told reporters that at present, Xiaopeng cars basically need to wait for cars. According to different models and configurations, the waiting time is different. It is generally about 10 weeks, and the collection cycle of some models has reached 12 weeks. "Of course, there are also lucky ones. Occasionally, for various reasons, there will be one or two existing cars, that is, first come, first served, basically second clear." The above salesperson said.
The sales of Weilai automobile said that if the selected configuration scheme can match the vehicles in production, the vehicle collection cycle will be faster; If the configuration scheme cannot match the vehicle in production, the waiting time will be slightly longer. Tesla's official website shows that at present, the collection cycle of model y and model 3 models is as long as 12 ~ 16 weeks. In addition, the collection cycle of popular models of gac-e'an, Great Wall Euler, Geely geometry and other brands has exceeded 3 months.
For the reason that the delivery cycle is as long as several months, many sales told reporters that at present, the supply of chips and batteries is still tight, and the manufacturers are also "waiting for rice to cook". At the end of 2021, due to the shortage of chips, ideal automobile and Xiaopeng automobile released the plan of shortage delivery.
At the fourth quarter earnings conference call in 2021, Tesla CEO Elon Musk once said that there was a chip shortage crisis in 2021. He expected that 2022 would still be limited by the chip shortage, and the core shortage might not be alleviated until 2023,
The tight supply of power batteries also increases the collection time. "The lack of chips can be simply matched or installed later. At least a relatively complete product can be delivered, but what about the lack of batteries? Can we sell an immovable electric car?" An insider told reporters.
In 2021, Ford CEO Jim Farley said in an interview that compared with chips, Ford electric vehicles lack batteries more. Xiaopeng also made a statement at the end of 2021 that some car owners were unable to pick up the car on time due to the tight battery supply of some models. SNE research predicts that by 2023, the global demand for power batteries for electric vehicles will reach 406gwh, while the power battery supply is expected to be 335gwh, with a gap of about 18%. By 2025, this gap will expand to about 40%. Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) the research report shows that the global power batteries will be in a tight supply in the next few years, that is, considering the dynamic capacity of new and expanded production every year, there will still be a 30gwh gap in global power batteries in 2022.
"Last year, Qin plus DM-I took six months to collect the car, mainly due to the shortage of chips and insufficient production capacity. Affected by the Xi'an epidemic, some car owners may have a longer collection cycle. Now the production capacity has been improved. At present, the collection cycle is about four months." Su Qian believes that Byd Company Limited(002594) with the production capacity of batteries and some chips was caught off guard by the surge in orders and insufficient capacity preparation. With the improvement of production capacity, the problem of long vehicle collection cycle is being alleviated.
the price increase has not affected sales
"We started to adjust the price on February 1, but we haven't seen the impact of price changes on sales yet." Su Qian told reporters.
In the past two months, many auto companies have announced price adjustments for their new energy vehicle products, but the price increase has not had a decisive impact on consumers' purchase of new energy vehicles.
On January 1 this year, Nezha automobile raised the price of its models. The prices of Nezha V, Nezha u pro and other models increased by about 2000 ~ 5000 yuan; On January 11, the price of all models of Xiaopeng increased after the subsidy, with an average increase of about 5000 yuan; On January 21, Byd Company Limited(002594) announced that it would adjust the official guidance price of new energy models related to dynasty.com and ocean.com by 1000 ~ 7000 yuan. Weilai and other car companies have not raised the guidance price for the time being, but the relevant sales said that the national subsidy in 2022 will be further reduced compared with that in 2021. From the perspective of user car purchase, the cost of car purchase in 2022 will certainly be higher than that in 2021.
The sales of several auto enterprises told reporters that the reason for the price rise of products was mainly due to the decline of new energy subsidies in 2022, followed by the rise of raw material prices of new energy vehicles.
On December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Finance and other four departments jointly issued the notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022 and the subsidy scheme, specifying that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021. According to regulations, pure electric vehicles with a range of more than 300 kilometers and a guide price of less than 300000 yuan can enjoy subsidies. Among them, the mileage subsidy standard for models with a range of 300km and 400km is 9100, and the mileage subsidy standard for models with a range of more than 400km is 12600.
In terms of horizontal comparison of the subsidy amount in 2021, the subsidy for pure electric vehicles below 300000 yuan is reduced by 5400 yuan, and the subsidy amount for plug-in hybrid vehicles is reduced by 2040 yuan. At the same time, it is worth noting that new energy vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer enjoy state subsidies. Take FAW Volkswagen as an example, the price increase of its id.6 crozz model is just 5400 yuan, which is consistent with the amount of subsidy reduction.
In addition, the continuous rise in raw material costs has also become an incentive for car companies to raise product prices.
According to the data of China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, compared with the beginning of 2020, the average price of mainstream ternary lithium battery cathode materials increased by 108.9% and the average price of lithium iron phosphate battery cathode materials increased by 182.5% in 2021. It is reported that the price of lithium carbonate has risen from 50000 yuan per ton in early 2021 to more than 300000 yuan per ton.
On February 11, Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) released data that showed that the quotation of some lithium battery materials rose again. The price of metal lithium increased by 60000 yuan / ton, up to 2.1 million yuan / ton. The price of metal lithium in China has increased by more than 318% since the beginning of 2021. The price of lithium carbonate has reached 400000 yuan. In terms of negative electrode materials, the price of coated asphalt increased by 0500 yuan / ton, and the price of petroleum coke increased by 0300 yuan / ton; In terms of cathode materials, the price of lithium iron phosphate increased by 10000 yuan / ton.
Recently, some media reported that overseas power battery enterprises such as LG new energy, SK on and Samsung SDI have raised the finished price of power battery, and China's Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) have also been reported to have raised the price.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Federation, believes that with the implementation of the decline of new energy subsidies, the price of some models will be fine tuned, and the consumption mentality will also change, which will slightly affect the demand for new energy vehicles. However, new energy vehicles continue to be popular. At present, there are a large number of undelivered orders in the early stage, so the sales volume of most new energy vehicles will not be significantly affected by the decline.
Although the decline in subsidies and the rise in raw material prices have led to the rise in the cost of new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles can still enjoy preferential policies in terms of purchase tax and license sector. Take Shanghai as an example. At present, pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles can still apply for the quota of new energy vehicles for free. In contrast, in January 2022, the minimum transaction price of non-commercial bus quota auction in Shanghai has risen to 93100 yuan.
