The sugar substitute track is still hot, causing capital covet. With the addition of capital, erythritol production enterprises have expanded their production capacity, and the industry competition tends to be fierce.
A senior person in a sweetener industry in Shandong told the financial associated press that at present, the main consumer market of erythritol is in Europe and the United States. Under the large-scale capacity expansion, the erythritol industry may face the problem of overcapacity in the future. However, there is still considerable incremental space in the Chinese market in the future, and enterprises with scale advantages are expected to win the last laugh in the industry competition.
It is reported that the price of erythritol products is still high, and the performance of relevant listed companies has increased significantly. According to the introduction of ternary Biology (301206. SZ) just listed on the gem, at present, the erythritol market is in short supply, and the company is almost waiting for customers to come to the door for goods.
the sugar substitute track is hot, and erythritol leads
At present, low sugar and low sugar has become an “irreversible” trend in the food and beverage industry, and the terminal demand of sugar substitute products is growing. Erythritol, as a healthy, 0 calorie natural sugar substitute, continues to be sought after by consumers, especially young people.
According to the research data of relevant institutions, the global demand for erythritol will be about 140000 tons in 2021, and will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 22.1% in the next three years. The hot demand also kept the product price at a relatively high position. The reporter learned that the price of erythritol once soared to 40000 yuan / ton in 2021. Although the price has decreased since then, it still increased by more than 50% compared with the price at the beginning of last year.
Through the performance of relevant listed companies, we can more clearly see the competition pattern of the current sugar substitute track.
After combing, the reporter found that among the five A-share sweetener enterprises that have released performance forecasts, the annual performance of Acer honey and sucralose leader Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) (002597. SZ) increased by 60.05% at the highest level; The annual performance growth of Stevia producers Chenguang Biotech Group Co.Ltd(300138) (300138. SZ) and Guilin Layn Natural Ingredients Corp(002166) (002166. SZ) did not exceed 38.94% and 50.02%.
In sharp contrast, the performance growth of the two sweeteners with erythritol as the main product was significantly stronger. Among them, Baolingbao Biology Co.Ltd(002286) (002286. SZ) made an annual profit of 190-210 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 281.05% – 321.16%; According to the prediction of Sanyuan biology, the company’s revenue in 2021 is 1.57-1.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100.96% – 113.07%; The net profit was 490 million yuan to 540 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 111.96% – 132.63%.
In addition, the reporter noted that in 2021, when the prices of bulk commodities were raised crazily, many sweetener enterprises experienced a decline in gross profit margin, but the gross profit margin of erythritol rose instead of falling. Financial data show that the gross profit margin of erythritol products of ternary biology has always remained above 40% in recent years, but it hit a record high with 44.04% in the first three quarters of last year; Baolingbao Biology Co.Ltd(002286) the gross profit level of sugar alcohol products shown in last year’s interim report also hit a new high in recent 10 years.
According to the relevant person of Sanyuan biology, due to the hot demand for products, the company almost waits for customers to come to the door for goods. At the same time, the company improves the product order price through negotiation with customers, passing on the impact of the rise of raw materials, so as to maintain the gross profit margin at a high level.
initial clue of capacity game
The popularity of products will inevitably lead to the covet of capital and the expansion of industry.
Public information shows that since 2020, listed companies such as ternary biology, Baolingbao Biology Co.Ltd(002286) , Anhui Fengyuan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000153) (000153. SZ) and Zhejiang Huakang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(605077) (605077. SH) have been trying to get involved in the field of erythritol through production expansion or new construction, with a total new production capacity of more than 100000 tons. In addition, non listed companies such as Zhucheng Dongxiao Biotechnology Co., Ltd. and Yufeng group also have plans to invest in new erythritol projects.
Many industry insiders said that at present, the main consumption places of erythritol are still in developed countries and regions such as Europe and the United States, and there is still a large growth space in the Chinese market, but such a large-scale capacity expansion in the industry is bound to lead to the development of this sweet feast in the direction of sweet war.
So who will occupy the “C” position in this sweet war? A dealer in the sweetener industry in Shandong said in an interview with reporters that there is an indisputable consensus in the sweetener industry that whoever has the capacity advantage will become the final winner.
Since the quality and safety of sweeteners are the most important factors in the downstream industry, the quality and safety of sweeteners are more important than those of the downstream industry. At the same time, larger scale also means lower cost and stronger profitability of enterprises.
