Today (February 11), the three major A-share indexes opened low across the board, and the Shanghai index rose rapidly at the beginning of the session. Then, after repeated shocks, it turned red and rose again, and further rose. However, the trend of Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index was relatively weak, especially the gem index ushered in a weak adjustment pattern.
From the perspective of disk, the “Chinese prefix” headed by Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) sounded the rising rally number, the financial “three brothers” protected the sector, the carnival of resource targets of “coal, cobalt lithium and natural gas”, tourism hotels, digital currency, real estate and other sectors also came to join the fun, and the local profit-making effect was prominent.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that the market hot spots continue to show the characteristics of diversified distribution. After a sustained rebound in the short term, the Shanghai index is once again approaching the 3500 point integer mark and the 3540 point area of the annual line. Whether the stock index can continue to rebound in the future still depends on the strong cooperation of leading hot spots and trading volume. It is suggested to pay close attention to the changes in policy and capital.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme a ] big finance
For the banking sector, Ping An securities mentioned that from the performance express disclosed before the Spring Festival, under the downward pressure of the economy in the fourth quarter of 2021, the fundamentals of most listed banks remained stable, the revenue growth rate increased steadily, the asset quality was generally stable, the assets and liabilities expanded steadily at both ends, and the profit growth rate maintained high growth. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2022, the gradual implementation of the steady growth policy is expected to support the fundamentals of banks. At present, the static valuation level of the sector is only 0.64x, which is still at an absolute low in history and has a sufficient margin of safety. We are still optimistic about the valuation repair opportunities of the sector under the excessively pessimistic expectation of the economy and the quality of bank assets.
For the securities sector, Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that under the expectation of steady growth, the reform of the capital market has been strengthened, which has become the catalyst for the securities market. At present, the valuation of Pb of securities companies is 1.7 times, which is in the historical quantile of 24%, with a high margin of safety. With the promotion of capital market reform, the growth of residents’ demand for wealth management and the outbreak of equity funds, securities companies have ushered in new opportunities for development. Under the background of capital market reform, leading securities companies have advantages in capital strength, risk management ability, research pricing ability and business layout.
In addition, for the insurance sector, Huajin Securities said that the valuation of the insurance sector could be repaired. Under the expectations of downward interest rate, cold start and negative growth of NBV, the valuation of listed insurance companies is too low due to excessive concerns in the market. We believe that the overall improvement of the valuation of the large financial sector is expected to promote the valuation repair of the insurance sector. In addition, although the industry is still in the bottom stage of manpower decline, the improvement of retained manpower quality can be expected under the promotion of channel reform, and the debt end of the industry may be repaired in the future. []
[subject II ] cobalt lithium
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) mentioned that lithium prices in different regions of the world differentiated in 2021, showing the impact of long order sales mode in overseas markets on product prices. In 2022, with the elimination of the impact of long-term single pricing, it is expected that the global lithium price will resonate upward, and the price of lithium compounds exported by China to Japan and South Korea will also accelerate. Imported low-cost lithium carbonate products will continue to disturb the lithium price in China’s market in 2022, or lead to high volatility in China’s lithium price. Under the background of global lithium price resonance upward, integrated lithium producers will fully benefit from the advantages of guaranteed supply and low cost. Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) are recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) .
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said that as the demand of new energy industry continues to improve in 2022, the central probability of lithium price will remain high in the whole year of 22 years. When the market sees that the price of lithium salt continues to be strong and gradually expects the price formation, it will focus on the performance improvement brought by the enterprise’s expansion of its own alpha. This is also the logic that we have always mentioned that the lithium sector is “volume” rather than “price” in the long term. We are still firmly optimistic about the allocation value of lithium sector in the whole year of 22, and we suggest paying attention to the performance forecast period in 2022.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that the gap between supply and demand widened again at the end of the year, and the price of cobalt and lithium accelerated upward. (1) Lithium: some manufacturers shut down for maintenance at the end of the year, the output of lithium carbonate fell for nine consecutive weeks, and the gap between supply and demand is still widening. Since the beginning of the year, the lithium hydroxide inventory has continued to decline. The retail of new energy vehicles and the production scheduling of cathode materials in November show that the demand side maintains a high boom and maintains the bullish view of lithium price; (2) Nickel: the purchase demand of nickel salt downstream factories is poor, and the increase of quotation further affects the purchase enthusiasm. The market is mainly wait-and-see, and the upward space of nickel sulfate price is under pressure; (3) Cobalt: the precursor and four cobalt manufacturers may have some replenishment due to the adjustment of production plan. The rhythm of goods collection in the downstream years ago is gradually rising, and the superimposed head enterprises reduce output, and the cobalt price is expected to continue to rise. []
[theme III ] coal
Huabao securities mentioned that China’s demand for coking coal is expected to decrease by 3% in 2022, and the output of coking coal will increase by about 4 million tons. The overall supply and demand of overseas coking coal is in tight balance. Considering that the import of coking coal is an important factor in adjusting the supply and that coking coal has little impact on people’s livelihood, we tend to think that on the supply side, the increase of Mongolia’s import will reduce the total import from other regions to a certain extent, and the increase of overseas import is generally cautious. According to the overall calculation, the tight situation of coking coal supply and demand will be alleviated and the supply and demand will be balanced in 2022. Based on 2022, the supply and demand of coking coal is in balance as a whole. It is estimated that the central price of Mysteel China coking coal price index is 1500 yuan / ton, and the central price of Xinhua Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) long-term association price index is 1200 yuan / ton.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) believes that in the medium and long term, under the background of lack of planned investment, the constraints on the coal supply side are strong. Under the background of small annual growth in demand, coal will be a scarce resource in the next few years, and the stock capacity or high profits. The increase of the benchmark price of the annual long-term association also ensures the ability of the industry to continue to make high profits. Under the dual carbon goal, Coal enterprises urgently need transformation. Power investment energy, Yankuang, Shenhua, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) and other major forces are in the direction of new energy operation and hydrogen energy. The coal industry has the advantages of strong cash flow and rich land resources in new energy operation, and has the ability and desire, The transformation in the direction of new energy is conducive to improving the valuation level of the overall sector (the current PE valuation is 5-6 times). Coal assets need to be repriced and continue to be optimistic about the investment value of the sector.
The agency further mentioned that the thermal coal stocks proposed to pay attention to: Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , power investment and energy, Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
In addition, Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that in the medium and long term, the space for new capacity is limited, the nuclear growth potential of stock capacity has been fully tapped, the coal supply is expected to peak ahead of demand, support the operation of coal prices at a high level, and the coal enterprises may usher in an era of sustained high profitability. We expect the performance of coal enterprises to return to a benign and stable release, which is expected to catalyze the valuation repair. At the same time, we recommend power investment energy, Yankuang energy and Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) as the targets of new energy transformation, and are optimistic about the transformation and growth potential of coal enterprises under the support of high performance. []
[theme IV ] oil and gas
Minsheng Securities said that the supply and demand of the global crude oil market will maintain a tight balance in 2022: (1) supply side: the idle capacity is limited, and the supply increment is less than expected. (2) Demand side: the impact of the epidemic has been effectively controlled, and the demand is expected to exceed the pre epidemic level. According to OPEC’s monthly report in January 2022, the global demand for crude oil is expected to reach 100.79 million barrels / day in 2022, exceeding the demand of 100.10 million barrels in 2019. To sum up, we believe that in 2022, the fundamentals of global crude oil supply and demand are expected to continue to maintain a tight balance, which will continue to drive the upward fluctuation of crude oil prices.
The agency further analyzed that the crude oil price may continue to fluctuate upward in 2022 and remain at a medium high level throughout the year. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to the upstream crude oil mining industry whose profitability benefits from the rise of crude oil and the oil service industry which benefits from the increase of capital expenditure under high oil prices. We suggest paying attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and Zhongman Petroleum And Natural Gas Group Corp.Ltd(603619) with new crude oil mining and sales business.
In addition, China’s offshore Energy Research Institute pointed out that the incremental output of crude oil will continue to increase by 788% in 2021, and China’s offshore energy research institute will continue to increase by 2022; CNOOC released its business strategy for 2022, proposing that the net output in 2021 will reach 570 million barrels of oil equivalent, and the net output target in 2022 is 600-610 million barrels of oil equivalent. Marine energy will become a new bright spot in China’s energy output growth. []
[theme 5] tourist hotel
Dongguan Securities said that the proportion of short distance travel in the spring festival tourism market was further increased, the passenger flow of Spring Festival transportation increased significantly, and the impact of the epidemic was gradually reduced. It is suggested that the outbound tourism industry will benefit from the recovery of outbound tourism in 2027 {0007} and is expected to become the leader in 2027 {0007} under the guidance of careful planning; Recommended franchisees account for a relatively high proportion of chain hotel leaders Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) with stable performance, and artificial scenic spot leaders Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) with large performance flexibility. They are expected to benefit from Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) of the Winter Olympic effect in the short term.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that judging from the repeated regional epidemics in China, it is suggested to grasp the phased market. China’s long-term trend will continue to be firm in clearing cases, strictly preventing overseas imports, accelerating vaccination and research and development of multiple vaccines, and realizing mass immunization as soon as possible. During the Spring Festival, the Winter Olympic Games were held in Zhangjiakou, Beijing. The government continued to take strict covid-19 prevention and control measures, and the restrictions on international flights were extended to at least the first half of this year. China’s tourism industry continued to circulate internally, and the flow of outbound tourists continued to be transformed into Chinese tourism. China’s tourism industry does not change the recovery trend, and the recovery process is repeatedly disturbed with the possible local epidemic. During this period, with theme investment and hot investment hotspots, the fundamentals of Companies in the industry showed continuous repair. It is suggested to pay attention to: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) .
In addition, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) mentioned that the tourism market recovered weakly during the Spring Festival holiday, and the overall consumer expenditure of residents maintained a steady growth. According to the data of the Ministry of culture, tourism and tourism, 137 million people traveled in China in the first three days of the holiday, which recovered to 71.5% in the same period of the Spring Festival in 2019 according to a comparable standard. The recovery rate was weak compared with 70% in the golden week of November 2021. This was mainly due to the repeated epidemic in many parts of the country since January 2022, and the travel of provinces and cities such as Beijing and Zhejiang was limited. Population mobility has increased, and the overall consumption expenditure of residents is expected to maintain a steady growth. According to Netcom data, in the five days before the Spring Festival holiday in 2022, the Netcom platform handled 6.236 billion inter agency online payment transactions, with an amount of 4.20 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% and 11.6%. []
