Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : the supply and demand of lithium ore and lithium salt are still in the most tense moment
The supply and demand of lithium ore and lithium salt are still in the most tense moment. The price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate has accelerated to 382500 yuan / ton; The price of spodumene imported from China rose rapidly, and the spot price rose to US $2710 / ton. On the supply side, the output of lithium extraction from Qinghai Salt Lake in China will decline in winter; On the demand side, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) medium-sized vehicles continued to exceed expectations, driving the release of production and sales of cathode materials, especially the output of lithium iron phosphate remained strong. It is expected that at present, the supply and demand of lithium ore and lithium salt is still in the most tense moment. The tight situation of global lithium ore supply and demand is difficult to alleviate in the short term, and the lithium price is expected to remain high. []
Guosheng Securities: the upswing of the new energy boom continues. It is suggested to continue to configure the EV upstream sector
The prosperity of new energy continues upward, and it is suggested to continue to configure EV upstream sector; The supply and demand pattern of electrolytic aluminum has been improving for a long time, the competition pattern of aluminum processing industry has been optimized, and the leading enterprises are expected to accelerate their growth: (1) the production capacity of ores and salt lakes outside China is concentrated and the spot supply is limited, the supply and demand structure continues to be tight, and the price of lithium salt is expected to remain high. It is cautiously assumed that the average tax price of lithium salt is 250000 yuan / ton in 2022 (currently close to 400000 yuan / ton), and the average PE of the sector is expected to fall back to the underestimated level of about 20x in 2022. The high-quality target with the advantage of resource end supply guarantee & rapid and large capacity is expected to continue to lead the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) ; (2) It is expected to maintain the “peak” of aluminum production capacity and aluminum electrolysis price in the long term. After long-term competition, the aluminum processing industry has entered a mature period. With the growth of high-end demand, refined cost control and the continuous highlighting of scale effect, the industrial competition barriers are gradually rising, and the market share of leading enterprises is expected to continue to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to: Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) . []
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: the industry is still booming in 2022. At present, the valuation and investment cost performance of cobalt lithium leading enterprises is high
The new energy vehicle industry chain continued to be hot. In mid January, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car sales won a good start, Byd Company Limited(002594) and new car manufacturing forces such as Xiaopeng, ideal and Weilai, as well as overseas Europe and the United States, the sales of new energy vehicles in January increased significantly year-on-year. The demand of downstream terminals is strong, the fundamental outlook of lithium and cobalt industries in the upstream of the industrial chain is high, and the metal price continues to rise with strong certainty. According to the performance forecast of 2021 annual report released by Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) and other new energy metal leaders, the performance of the upstream resource sector of the new energy automobile industrial chain has been significantly higher than expected since 2021q4. We are still optimistic about the investment opportunities of cobalt lithium rare earth sector. The industry boom is still hot in 2022, and the continuous rise of prices makes the performance of the sector highly deterministic. Superimposed on the correction of early stock prices, the current valuation and investment cost performance of cobalt lithium leading enterprises is high. It is suggested to pay attention to notes Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) . []
Cinda Securities: pay attention to the historic investment opportunities of new energy and new materials under the background of “double carbon” goal
In the context of the “double carbon” goal, pay attention to the historic investment opportunities of new energy and new materials, and focus on new energy metals with strong demand and weak supply pattern (lithium cobalt nickel rare earth) and new metal materials benefiting from industrial upgrading and domestic substitution. In 2022, non-ferrous metal prices will remain high as a whole, corporate profits are expected to continue to increase significantly, and the valuation of the sector will return to a low level. Under the background of China’s continued loose monetary policy, we expect the valuation of the non-ferrous sector to repair the market. Lithium suggests paying attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , etc; It is suggested to pay attention to Guangdong Haomei New Materials Co.Ltd(002988) , Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) , Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) , Ningbo Boway Alloy Material Co.Ltd(601137) etc. for new materials; Titanium suggests paying attention to Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Sichuan Anning Iron And Titanium Co.Ltd(002978) , Western Metal Materials Co.Ltd(002149) , etc; It is suggested to pay attention to Sino-Platinum Metals Co.Ltd(600459) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) etc. for precious metals; It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) etc. for industrial metals. []
Caixin Securities: looking for investment opportunities from four main lines: degradable materials, new energy lithium battery and lithium extraction from Salt Lake
Looking for investment opportunities from four main lines: 1. Degradable materials. Degradable materials are the focus of China’s policy. At present, PLA and PBAT materials are the most mature and may be popularized on a large scale. It is suggested to pay attention to Henan Jindan Lactic Acid Technology Co.Ltd(300829) and Cofco Biotechnology Co.Ltd(000930) with PLA lactide core technology, Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) with PBAT integrated industrial chain, and Red Avenue New Materials Group Co.Ltd(603650) with BASF PBAT core patent.
2. Semiconductor material sector. The localization of semiconductor materials is the general trend. It is suggested to pay attention to the high-quality companies in the subdivision of upstream semiconductor materials, including the field of semiconductor photoresist: at present, China’s only Jiangsu Nata Opto-Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300346) with ARF photoresist production capacity, Jingrui Co., Ltd., which arranges the whole industrial chain of semiconductor photoresist, KrF photoresist high-quality enterprise Red Avenue New Materials Group Co.Ltd(603650) and domestic photoresist high-quality company Shanghai Sinyang Semiconductor Materials Co.Ltd(300236) ; Subdivided head enterprises in the field of electronic special gas Jiangsu Nata Opto-Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300346) , Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) , Suzhou Jinhong Gas Co.Ltd(688106) , etc; Leading company of wet electronic chemicals Jiangyin Jianghua Microelectronics Materials Co.Ltd(603078) etc.
3. New energy lithium battery sector. With the recovery of the proportion of lithium iron phosphate installed back, the demand for phosphoric acid of upstream raw materials will rise rapidly. It is suggested to pay attention to phosphorus chemical related enterprises, such as Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) .
4. Salt lake lithium extraction sector. It is estimated that the mainstream technologies for extracting lithium from salt lakes in China in the future are adsorption method, membrane method and extraction method. From the current time point, the adsorption method of Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi’An(300487) has been used in zangge and Jintai with good effect, and Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi’An(300487) is recommended. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Jiuwu Hi-Tech Co.Ltd(300631) and Suntar Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(688101) for membrane method and Zhejiang Xinhua Chemical Co.Ltd(603867) for extraction method. []
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : it is suggested to pay attention to high-quality lithium target with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources, stable output at low cost and continuous expansion of production
The abortion of the largest lithium project in Europe and the brewing of lithium organization in South America made it difficult to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand, and the lithium performance was gradually realized. The Serbian government stopped Rio Tinto jadar lithium project for political and environmental reasons, showing the difficulty and long-term cycle of lithium resource development; The three major lithium resource countries in South America are discussing the establishment of an organization of lithium producing countries. If it is formed, it is expected to optimize the lithium supply pattern and further coordinate and standardize the industry, which is conducive to maintaining the high price of lithium.
However, the increment of lithium supply in the medium and short term is limited, the contradiction between supply and demand strongly supports the high price of lithium, and the supply of lithium salt may become the decisive factor for the release of capacity in the middle and lower reaches, and the profit will move up; The 2021q4 performance forecast has shown that companies that stably produce lithium salts benefit from the upward price of lithium and realize their performance. It is suggested to pay attention to high-quality lithium targets with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources, stable output at low cost and continuous expansion of production. []
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : under the background of global lithium price resonance, integrated lithium producers will benefit from the advantages of guaranteed supply and low cost
Lithium prices in different regions of the world differentiated in 2021, showing the impact of long order sales mode in overseas markets on product prices. In 2022, with the elimination of the impact of long-term single pricing, it is expected that the global lithium price will resonate upward, and the price of lithium compounds exported by China to Japan and South Korea will also accelerate. Imported low-cost lithium carbonate products will continue to disturb the lithium price in China’s market in 2022, or lead to high volatility in China’s lithium price. Under the background of global lithium price resonance upward, integrated lithium producers will fully benefit from the advantages of guaranteed supply and low cost. Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) are recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) .
East Asia Qianhai Securities: the allocation value of precious metal sector at the current time point is constantly highlighting
Outlook for 2022: (1) rare metal sector: the cumulative sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in 2021 will be 3.521 million. With the continuous volume of new energy vehicles and the continuous promotion of infrastructure projects, the demand for rare metals will continue to grow. (2) New metal materials: the 14th five year plan proposes to promote the high-quality development of the new material industry, and it is expected that the scale of the new material industry will reach 10 trillion in the future. (3) Energy metal sector: under the “double carbon” policy, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has led to a significant increase in the loading volume of power batteries. The loading volume of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) batteries has reached 154.5gwh in 2021. It is expected that the energy metal industry will continue to boom in the future. (4) Industrial metal sector: in 2022, the supply of some industrial metals is still uncertain, the mismatch between supply and demand of industrial metals still exists, and the prosperity of the sector is expected to remain high in the future. (5) Precious metals: in the short term, the current market has strong expectations for the Fed’s interest rate hike. In the short term, with the landing of the Fed’s interest rate hike, the gold price may rebound to some extent. In the medium and long term, the price of Brent crude oil reached US $92.69/barrel on February 7, 2022, an increase of about 17.4% over the beginning of the year. The continuous rise of international oil prices indicates that the current inflation situation has not been eased. At the same time, omecron continues to spread all over the world. The number of new infections in the world on February 7, 2022 is as high as 2189000, and the uncertainty of the global economy in the future remains. The configuration value of precious metal sector at the current time point is constantly highlighting. []
