UBS released a research report that a series of studies show that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has ushered in buying opportunities, with a target price of 700 yuan.
In terms of performance, UBS believes that the financial report of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2021 is 30% to 40% higher than the general expectation, and there is still a lot of room for improvement in 2022.
Xiaocai note: as of today’s close, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) share price is 489.99 yuan / share.
A heated debate about “ningwang”: the chief economist thought it would fall another 20%, but the industry analyst recommended it for the first time on the same day! Who is more reliable?
The decline of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has greatly dragged down the performance of the gem at the beginning of the year of the tiger. As a big Mac with a market value of more than 1 trillion, the game between long and short is obviously very complex and intense.
When the decline comes, it is different from the past blindly optimistic. Recently, there has been a heated debate on the future trend of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . On February 10, capital securities released a research report, saying that the adjustment of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) may not be over, and there may still be 20% room for decline in the future. The reporter of the daily economic news noted that the report was signed by Wei Zhichao, chief economist of capital securities, and Wang Weiran, their research assistant. Their research perspective is also similar to that of ordinary industry analysts.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) faced with similar difficulties at the beginning of last year Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , it is suggested to reduce positions at high prices
Generally speaking, Wei Zhichao and Wang Weiran did not conduct quantitative analysis from the perspective of fundamentals, but from the perspective of market sentiment. On the contrary, the fundamentals are the uncertainties in the report’s conclusions.
Source: Capital Securities Research Report
“Compared with the sharp adjustment of Mao index after the Spring Festival in 2021, the overvalued conglomerates seem to step into the same river again. After the catalyst of rising logic shakes, the overvalued conglomerates are facing the dilemma of killing more, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) may not have a bottom in the short term.” The two made it clear.
Wei Zhichao and Wang Weiran pointed out that Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) is a consumer track and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is a science and technology track. There are great differences in logic and valuation between the two. On the surface, it seems that comparing the two is different, but there are great commonalities behind the stock price movements of the two. In recent years, value investment and track investment have become popular, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) as representatives of the two major tracks of consumption and technology, have been sought after by the whole market, especially institutional investors, who ranked among the top two heavyweight stocks in the annual report of the fund in 2021. As the two are the red cards of the whole market, the research on the fundamentals of the two must be very comprehensive. Its basic impact on the stock price has long been reflected.
“Since the change of fundamentals is small in the short term, it is more non fundamental factors that determine the short-term stock price, such as market microstructure, market sentiment and other variables.” Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) as representatives of the two major tracks, they have too many similarities in these non fundamental factors. Although people can’t walk into two rivers at the same time, the market’s obsession with value investment and track investment, the operation mode of public funds and the reason of unchanged human nature make the stock price movements of the two have great similarities.
Wei Zhichao and Wang Weiran believe that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) faces a similar market environment of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) in 2021:
(I) the logic of rising has been challenged;
(2) US bond yields rose sharply;
(III) the share price has risen excessively. The track is highly crowded, forming a negative feedback of killing more.
Generally speaking, both of them are similar paths: due to various favorable factors, the market is sought after and seriously deviates from the valuation. When the rising logic is challenged, an external catalyst triggers the falling market.
Wei Zhichao and Wang Weiran compared the high point of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) in 2021 with the high point of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in 2022, and inferred the future trend of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) from the trend of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . “From the fitting situation, the overall adjustment of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has not ended yet, and there may still be obvious room for decline in the future. There may be a rebound in the process of adjustment, so it is recommended to ship every high. If the difference between the two and Wande quana is fitted, the trend will be more obvious, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) the correction from the high point may not end, and there may still be 20% room for decline in the future.”
It is worth mentioning that Wei Zhichao and Wang Weiran stressed that the above conclusions are based on the perspective of short-term market sentiment and microstructure. However, in the long run, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) is different from Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in the industry, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) is in the consumer industry and can rely on the brand to obtain the long-term moat, while Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is in the new energy industry with high growth and technological change, which has more opportunities, greater risks and more unstable moat. The long-term trend may depend on the fundamental changes of the company and the industry. At the same time, in the risk prompt column of this research report, they took ” Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) performance growth exceeded expectations” as the conclusion variable.
shortly after joining capital securities, Wei Zhichao repeatedly expressed his views on the stock market
The report of Wei Zhichao and Wang Weiran caused heated discussion in a shares. On February 11, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) still fell sharply, which seems to be confirming the conclusion of the report.
It is worth mentioning that in the research field of securities sellers, it is also very rare for a chief economist to express his views on individual stocks.
According to the introduction, Wei Zhichao is a doctor of economics from Brown University in the United States. He once served as the macro director of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities, Huaxia Fund and Anxin securities. He joined the research and Development Department of capital securities in November 2020 and is now the chief economist of capital securities. Wang Weiran, an assistant in the research department of China’s Insurance Company in March 2021, joined the asset management department of the people’s University of China.
Combing Wei Zhichao’s research, we can find that he does not release research reports every day, but in addition to interpreting macro data, he prefers to combine economic judgment with market interpretation.
On February 7, Wei Zhichao released a macro analysis report, mainly scanning the data of the Spring Festival holiday. It is pointed out that the PMI data released in June showed that the PMI fell slightly, but it was still at the boom level for three consecutive months. It did not change the overall good trend of the economy, reflecting the resilience of China’s economic recovery. However, the structural differentiation still deserves attention. The two-way weakening of production and demand is related to the impact of the epidemic and seasonal factors caused by the Spring Festival. “We believe that with the gradual implementation of measures to stabilize growth, the economy is expected to maintain a certain degree of resilience.”
At the end of the research report, he also commented on the stock market: from the medium-term perspective, we are still cautiously optimistic about the stock market, and Hong Kong stocks have greater opportunities from the index; A shares are more structural opportunities. In the short term, it is suggested to withdraw infrastructure and buy consumption; Overall, the undervalued value is still dominant. Treasury bond yields may pick up at the current point and remain low and volatile as a whole. In terms of risk, the risk of epidemic changes and significant adjustment of US stocks deserves attention.
strong contrast: on the same day, industry analysts recommended for the first time
Go back to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) .
The last Research Report on Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) of capital securities was released by Wang Shuai, then chief analyst of power and new energy, on August 26, 2021. The title of this article is Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) : the profitability remains stable and the energy storage business has grown rapidly. It mainly comments on the semi annual report of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2021 and maintains the “buy” rating of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . Wang Shuai once won the first place in the power equipment and new energy industry in the 10th and 11th new wealth best analyst. According to the website of China Securities Association, Wang Shuai joined Capital Securities on September 28, 2020, but left on November 2, 2021. At present, Wang Shuai works in China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) and is still an analyst.
In the recent research report on Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , most industry analysts are still optimistic about the company.
For example, Yin bin and Li Jiangtao, two industry analysts of Huaxin securities, commented on Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) on the same day as Wei Zhichao after they released the performance forecast.
Source: Huaxin Securities Research Report
According to the announcement, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 14 billion ~ 16.5 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 151% ~ 196%, and a net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company of 12 billion ~ 14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 181% ~ 228%.
Yin bin and Li Jiangtao believe that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) carefully and deeply layout the industrial chain and expand the core competitive advantage. Through joint venture, acquisition, strategic cooperation and other means, the company has achieved the support and guarantee of many suppliers of raw materials and equipment such as cathode (Bangpu, Germany, rongbai, Yunneng, etc.), diaphragm (Enjie, etc.), electrolyte (Tianci, Yongtai, shishishikang), cathode (Shangtai), copper foil (Jinmei, Jiayuan), lithium ( Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) ), equipment ( Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) ), In order to ensure the security of the supply chain and expand the cost advantage. At the same time, the company actively laid out application fields such as power exchange and energy storage to realize the in-depth layout of the industrial chain.
Therefore, based on the Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) high-quality track with comprehensive customer coverage and global leading competitive advantage, Yin bin and Li Jiangtao are optimistic about the medium and long-term upward development opportunities of the company and give a “recommended” rating, which is the first time Huaxin securities has given this rating to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . It is worth mentioning that the reporter noted that Yin bin, as the chief of new energy, was not only a doctor of science, but also worked in Byd Company Limited(002594) .
In addition, Huaxin securities is not only optimistic about Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . After China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) released the performance forecast, it shows that the company’s performance exceeded expectations and continues to be optimistic about its development in the field of new energy.
The chief economist and industry analyst, when facing the same company and predicting the stock price trend of the company from different perspectives and different models, came to a completely different conclusion, which itself is a thought-provoking thing.
Even Wei Zhichao said bluntly: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will it fall? How much more can you fall? Although this question is very important, predicting the stock price is originally a very mysterious question. Therefore, he just tried to provide an angle to explore the short-term trend of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and even new energy and overvalued sectors.
As of 14:40 p.m. on February 11, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) had fallen by more than 5% again, and the monthly line had been overcast for three consecutive days. At least for now, Wei Zhichao’s perspective has the upper hand.
However, the market is always changing. Otherwise, why does every analyst write a risk tip, whether from the perspective of fundamentals or emotions? For ordinary investors, looking at the problem from multiple perspectives and not easily chasing up and down may be the key to surviving longer in the market. (source: Daily Economic News)
