In the first three trading days of the year of the tiger, the market showed a "new atmosphere". Some blue chips with labels such as "undervalued", "high dividend" and "stagflation in the past few years" have become new favorites in the market. The most representative is the trillion "giant elephant" China Mobile (600941, SH; yesterday's closing price of 66.00 yuan). It has performed "elephant dance" continuously in the last two trading days. It rose strongly on February 9, but fell 2.12% on February 10. Even if it rises sharply for two days, the P / E ratio and P / B ratio of China Mobile A shares are still not high. In the early stage of listing in January this year, despite the escort of "green shoe mechanism", China Mobile hovered on the edge of "breaking hair" for many times.
China Mobile disclosed the results of the implementation of the "green shoes" mechanism on the evening of February 9. According to the announcement, during the post market stabilization period (from January 5 to February 7), the joint lead underwriters China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) bought 69.7871 million shares of China Mobile through the over allotment option (green shoe mechanism), with a corresponding amount of 4.018 billion yuan, and the purchase price is equivalent to the issue price of 57.58 yuan / share.
According to the observation of the reporter of "daily economic news", now the seller analyst group is also keen to recommend the blue chip sector. In the past few years, the "Ning nationality" and "Mao nationality", which have been favored by the market, have collectively stalled. So, does this indicate that there will be new changes in the market style this year?
undervalued high dividend sector favored
In fact, it is not just China Mobile. Since this year, the undervalued sector of A-Shares has always played a leading role. According to the statistics of choice, among the 16 Shenwan style indexes, only Shenwan low price to book ratio and Shenwan low price to earnings ratio have increased this year; The bottom three declines were shenwangao price to book ratio, shenwangao price to earnings ratio and Shenwan high price stock index.
According to the reporter's observation, now the seller analyst group is also keen to recommend industries and individual stocks with labels such as "undervalued", "high dividend" and "stagflation in the past few years". In contrast, in the past few years, the "track stocks" that the seller group has flocked to have become significantly colder.
Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) the strategy team recently released a report that historically, the high dividend sector is "offensive" and "defensive". At the stage of steady growth policy, the dividend index of China Securities Regulatory Commission has excess returns. The constituent stocks of CSI dividend index are mostly distributed in industries significantly affected by the economic cycle, such as banking, mining and real estate. The positive correlation between excess return and A-share profit level is significant. During the period of economic bottom recovery and recovery, the dividend index of China Securities Exchange has shown some performance. Even if the economy only stabilizes in stages, there will often be 1 ~ 2 quarters of excess returns.
In addition, when the market risk appetite decreases, the CSI dividend index is relatively defensive. At this time, investors seek anti falling stocks, which is beneficial to the blue chip style. Measuring the change of market risk appetite with implied ERP, whether it is the decline of risk appetite caused by short-term sharp decline (such as 2008 and 2013) or the continuous decline of medium-term risk appetite (such as 2015-2018), the dividend index of China Securities outperformed Wande a. In the year of valuation contraction, the profit and valuation of dividend index are relatively stable, outperforming 300 and 500 indexes.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) the metalworking team recently issued a report pointing out that the high dividend strategy performed better in the market downturn and shock stage, whether in the A-share or Hong Kong stock market. Recently, the dividend yield of CSI dividend and Hong Kong stock Tonggao dividend index is at an all-time high, and the current market style is partial to value. Investors can pay attention to the investment value of A-share related dividend ETF and Hong Kong stock related high dividend ETF.
"track stock" has become the hardest hit area in the near future
Contrary to the "triumphant song" of the undervalued and high dividend sectors, the "Ning nationality" and "Mao nationality", which have been favored by the market in the past few years, have collectively stalled in the near future.
According to the statistics of Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) strategy team, as of the end of last year, the top industries in terms of fund over allocation were electronics, electrical equipment (new energy), food and beverage. In addition, the industries with the highest percentile of over allocation ratio of public funds to various industries since 2009 are electrical equipment (new energy), steel, electronics, national defense and military industry, etc.
The recent market led the decline is precisely the industry with heavy positions of these funds. According to statistics, as of the closing on February 10, among the 31 primary industries in Shenwan since 2022, the industries with the largest decline are national defense and military industry (down 16.57% this year), power equipment (down 15.4% this year), medicine and Biology (down 14.43% this year), electronics (down 14.1% this year), beauty care (down 12.8% this year), automobile (down 10.16% this year) Machinery and equipment (down 9.81% this year), food and beverage (down 9.77% this year), etc.
According to the statistics of choice, as of the end of last year, the top 100 A shares held by the fund accounted for the proportion of circulating shares, with an average decline of 14% this year, losing nearly 10 percentage points to the Shanghai stock index. Among the 100 fund heavyweight stocks, 32 stocks have fallen by more than 20% this year, including "Ning" and "Mao" members such as Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) .
