Since 2021, China’s onshore and offshore wind turbines have reduced prices in turns. With the opening of wind power projects bidding this year, the price of wind turbines has reached a new low.
On February 9, the bid opening of the 500MW wind power project in beligutai, Abaga banner, China Resources Power. The quotation of CRRC Zhuzhou Institute is 2002 yuan / kW (including tower). It is estimated that if the tower is not included, the lowest quotation is equivalent to 1550 yuan / kW ~ 1600 yuan / kW.
The reporter of securities times · e company noted that in the bidding of the above projects, a total of 9 complete machine manufacturers competed. The bidding prices of CRRC Zhuzhou Institute, Sany Heavy energy, vision energy, Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Shanghai Electric Wind Power Group Co.Ltd(688660) were all in the early 2000yuan / kW range. The quotation of Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Harbin electric power wind energy, Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , and China Sea Decoration exceeded 2100yuan / kW, of which the highest was China Sea Decoration 2263 yuan / kW.
Judging from the recent trend of fan bidding price, in October 2021, the lowest bid winning price for onshore fan procurement excluding tower was 2120 yuan / kW. By early November, the lowest bid winning price was close to 2000 yuan / kW. Taking this as a reference, the lowest quotation of complete machine manufacturers decreased by more than 20% in just three months.
In addition to onshore wind power, offshore wind power prices also continued to decline. On January 27, the bid evaluation results of zheneng Taizhou No. 1 offshore wind farm project were publicized. The Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) wind power finally won the bid, with a unit price of 3548 yuan / kW (including the tower). If the tower is deducted, the industry estimates that the unit price of the offshore wind turbine won the bid this time has been lower than 3000 yuan / kW, which is also a record low.
At present, the newly added onshore and offshore wind power has been withdrawn from the central subsidy list. On the one hand, the continuous price reduction of complete machine manufacturers is an inevitable requirement for the cost reduction of wind power. On the other hand, the trend of large-scale wind power also objectively makes the wind turbine have the potential to reduce the price. At present, 4MW and 6MW models of onshore wind turbine are more common, and models above 10MW of offshore wind turbine are also emerging one after another.
In 2021, China’s new wind power capacity will be 47.57gw. According to the prediction of China Power Council, the installed capacity of new wind power this year will be about 50gw, and the growth is not obvious. However, since January this year, the industry bidding has been launched one after another. In January alone, the number of onshore wind power bidding has exceeded 10GW, among which the large-scale projects include the 5GW framework project of Datang Group. On January 24, Huaneng launched 20 wind power projects, with a total of 3.11gw wind turbine pre bidding announcement.
In terms of offshore wind power, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) believes that China’s offshore wind power bidding has been accelerated recently. It is expected that the amount of offshore wind power bidding will exceed 15gw in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 21 times.
Of course, the repeated price cuts of fans have also raised concerns about the revenue and profit growth of complete machine manufacturers. In the first three quarters of 2021, Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) revenue fell by 9.4%.
Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) once replied to investors’ questions on the interactive platform, saying that the global onshore wind power kwh cost has decreased by 56% in the past decade. With the continuous progress of wind power technology, the potential space of wind power exploitable resources in China is still expanding. At the same time, several authoritative research institutions have made positive predictions on the continuous growth of the demand space of the wind power market, and there is no possibility of shrinking the market value.
Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) in response to relevant questions, it said that new energy has entered the stage of comprehensive parity, and the new development model and business model have begun to further promote the reduction of the cost of wind power. Combined with the cost reduction space brought by technologies such as large-scale wind turbines and the cost reduction space after the scale and localization of the industrial chain, the cost of wind power is still in the decline channel.
Compared with photovoltaic, which is the main power source of new energy, wind power and photovoltaic have gone out of the opposite price trend in the past two years. Affected by the shortage of upstream supply, the price of photovoltaic soared, while the price of wind power has been reduced all the way. In terms of economy, will wind power have more advantages than photovoltaic?
On this issue, an industry expert said in an interview with the reporter of securities times · e company that photovoltaic technology has made rapid progress in recent years, but the dividend of photovoltaic technology progress is coming to an end; Although wind power is a traditional machine, as long as the fan with larger impeller is made, the kwh power cost will continue to decline. “The technological progress of wind power is mainly the research and development of larger impellers and the application of new materials and structures.”
