Only one month after breaking through 300000 yuan, the price of lithium carbonate has reached 400000 yuan.
According to Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) data, the quotation of some lithium battery materials rose again on February 10. The battery grade lithium carbonate rose 10000 yuan / ton, and the average price was 400000 yuan / ton.
This is more than 40% higher than 280000 yuan / ton at the end of 2021; Compared with the same period last year, the increase was more than four times.
Compared with the spot quotation, the performance of lithium carbonate futures market is more prominent. As of February 10, the contract price of lithium carbonate has risen to 421500 yuan / ton in April 2022 and 426000 yuan / ton in June, indicating that the market is still bullish on the later price of lithium carbonate.
Qu Yinfei, a lithium analyst of the new energy business department, said in an interview with the interface news reporter that according to the current market situation, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to exceed 500000 yuan / ton.
“When the price increase of products cannot be transmitted to the terminal and the tight supply of lithium concentrate is effectively alleviated, the price will reach the top.” Qu Yinfei said.
The mismatch between supply and demand is still the main factor driving the continuous rise of prices.
Qu Yinfei said that the frequent maintenance at the smelting end, especially from December 2021 to February 2022, exacerbated the market supply shortage. Affected by the low raw material inventory in the downstream, the demand for replenishment is relatively strong, and the contradiction between supply and demand supports the further rise of prices.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) it is estimated that the global effective supply of lithium carbonate will be about 750000 tons in 2022. Among them, 170000-200000 tons are newly supplied, which should meet the supply capacity of about 280 GWH batteries and meet the demand growth of about 60% of electric vehicles. In addition, from 2020 to 2021, the industry digested a large amount of previous inventory. This year, the supply of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance, and the price will continue to rise.
What limits the output of lithium carbonate is not the processing capacity, but the real shortage of lithium ore.
“Lithium concentrate is the most scarce part of the industrial chain. Due to the lack of supply at the resource end, the overall start-up of China’s smelting end cannot reach the full load state, which is also one of the reasons for the shortage of market supply.” Qu Yinfei tells the interface news.
At present, the increment of demand side is obvious, mainly from electric vehicle power battery and energy storage battery.
Thanks to the promotion at the policy level, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will continue to increase. According to the new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035) issued by the State Council, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will account for 20% in 2025.
In October 2021, the State Council issued the action plan for carbon peak before 2030, which proposed that by 2030, the proportion of new energy and clean energy powered vehicles should reach about 40%.
Ping An Securities predicts that the global sales volume of electric vehicles will exceed 9 million in 2022, with a growth rate of nearly 50%; Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) the forecast is more optimistic. The sales volume is expected to exceed 10 million vehicles, with a growth rate of more than 60%. This is bound to drive the demand for lithium carbonate.
Energy storage batteries will also become another major market for lithium-ion batteries.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) it is estimated that the installed capacity of global energy storage battery will be 87.5 GWH in 2022, corresponding to the consumption of about 61000 tons of lithium carbonate; In 2025, the installed capacity of energy storage battery will reach 283.9 GWH.
As the key raw material of power battery, the rising price of lithium carbonate has put pressure on the profit of battery end. In 2021, the gross profit of power battery manufacturers generally decreased.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) it has been estimated that when the average transaction price of lithium carbonate is 300000 yuan / ton, the battery price increases by 10%, which can correspond to about 15% of the gross profit margin; When the average transaction price of lithium carbonate is 400000 yuan / ton, the battery price needs to rise by 20% to correspond to a gross profit margin of about 15%.
Under normal circumstances, the battery price increases by 10%, corresponding to the increase of the cost of electric vehicles by about 5000 yuan, which is still within the digestible range of vehicle enterprises.
With the release of the high production capacity of some enterprises in the second half of this year, it is expected that the price of 6009} materials in the middle reaches will be gradually alleviated.
In addition, if the battery factory and vehicle manufacturers can negotiate the price and gradually establish a metal linkage mechanism, it can effectively alleviate the cost pressure of the battery factory and repair the gross profit.
