Aluminum has recently become the most watched "Star" in the nonferrous metals sector. As of the closing of China on the 10th, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum has set a daily "eight consecutive Yang", and the price of Lun aluminum has also increased by about 16% during the year. After rising by 42% in 2021, it is now approaching the record high of US $3380 per ton set in 2008. At the same time, in the stock market, the nonferrous metals sector was also boosted by relevant benefits, and the stock prices of relevant stocks "soared" in the year of the tiger.
According to the analysis, the strong fundamentals of China's foreign aluminum market bring a more certain transaction logic to the market. In the context of insufficient supply and demand, institutions have made expectations that aluminum prices may continue to rise.
under the influence of multiple factors, China's aluminum supply is low
Baise City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, as an important town for the development of China's aluminum industry, the current epidemic has put pressure on the aluminum supply side.
According to the data disclosed by the people's Government of Baise, Guangxi, by the end of October 2021, the output of alumina in Baise, Guangxi was 6.6287 million tons, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 1.4566 million tons, and the aluminum production capacity was 1.4558 million tons. The output value of the aluminum industry was 68.066 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.3%, driving the city's economic growth of 23.78% and the aluminum processing increased by 25.9% year-on-year. Newly added 5 Enterprises above the designated size for aluminum intensive processing, 89 enterprises related to aluminum above the designated size, and 7 enterprises related to aluminum were shortlisted as the top 100 enterprises in the region in 2021.
"Baikuang aluminum's 300000 ton production capacity was completely shut down, and the 80000 tons of Suyuan aluminum plant's 200000 ton production capacity previously shut down was already in the state of resumption of production and was forced to be completely shut down. Under the circumstances of the epidemic and the need to overhaul the tank to resume production, the resumption process will be relatively long." Liu Dongbo, senior industrial analyst of SDIC Anxin futures, said that at present, the operating capacity of Baise City in Guangxi accounted for about 4.2% of the country at the end of January. Although it is not very high, its shutdown has a great impact on South China. The current epidemic has reduced the scale of local alumina production. There is still uncertainty about whether electrolytic aluminum production can be maintained, and personnel resumption and logistics transportation are greatly affected.
Liu Dongbo said that the production reduction in Guangxi has exacerbated the reality of low supply in China. "Due to the closure of the primary aluminum import window, the import volume has decreased sharply, and China's operating capacity is less than 38.5 million tons, far lower than the level in the same period in 2021."
In terms of inventory, the seasonal cumulative inventory of aluminum ingots before the Spring Festival is obviously low. During the Spring Festival, the inventory of aluminum rods increased by 40000 tons to 250000 tons, the inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 140000 tons to 870000 tons, and the comprehensive inventory increased by 180000 tons, which is generally lower than the average accumulation level of more than 200000 tons in recent years. The spot premium performance is also stronger than that in the same period of the past few years: the spot premium in East China is slightly higher than that in South China. "At present, the aluminum inventory in the bonded area is high. If the import window is opened, it may quickly supplement China's supply." Liu Dongbo pointed out.
However, Liu Dongbo also said that China's supply supplement can pay attention to the resumption of production in Yunnan. According to him, since December, the re production capacity in Yunnan has reached about 500000 tons, and the production capacity of Yunnan Aluminum, Weiqiao and Shenhuo has continued to rise. After obtaining the indicators, the re production is expected to scale up again. At present, electrolytic aluminum production areas in Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Guangxi and other places are in the state of resumption of production, and the operating capacity is slowly rising. The market news that aluminum enterprises in Yunnan have obtained power indicators to help resume production provides good news for the increase of supply. "Yunnan increases industrial power load, gives priority to supporting the power consumption of key industries such as green aluminum, and some aluminum enterprises can resume production up to one million tons within the year." He thinks.
overseas aluminum market encounters energy crisis
In contrast, in the overseas market, the high electricity price in Europe still seriously restricts the production of local electrolytic aluminum plants.
Liu Dongbo said that it is understood that since the fourth quarter of 2021, Alcoa, hydro and other aluminum companies have successively announced production cuts. The production capacity of European electrolytic aluminum plants has been reduced or to be reduced to 800000 tons, and the production of Germany, Spain, Romania and other countries will decline significantly. At present, with the exception of Norway and Iceland, which have a total electrolytic aluminum production capacity of about 2.25 million tons (accounting for about half of the production capacity in Europe except Russia) due to their low-cost advantages, other European production capacities are facing the threat of production reduction under high electricity prices.
In addition, the geopolitical problems of Russia and Ukraine will also deeply affect the nerves of the energy industry.
Analysts at Dutch international group said there was no sign that aluminum supply could recover soon, while aluminum inventories were low and falling.
In this context, Chinese and foreign institutions have expressed their optimism about the trend of aluminum price, and commodity investment institutions have also set off a "rising tide" of aluminum. Recently, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for aluminum price, which is currently expected to be $4000 per ton in 12 months, and said that the average price in 2022 is expected to be $3450. Karen karniol tambour, an executive of Bridgewater fund, a large global hedge fund, said that with economic expansion and rising prices, commodities are the most underutilized tool to hedge inflation. "What you need to look for is assets that will perform well under the pressure of economic growth and inflation. I personally prefer metals and carbon emission rights." Karen karniol tambour said.
stock market related sectors took advantage of the trend
It is worth noting that, in addition to the hot performance of bulk commodities in the futures market, the "hard core" trading logic of the aluminum industry is transmitted to the stock market. As of press time, the A-share Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) tiger year has increased by 19.01%, and the Hong Kong stock China nonferrous mining industry has also increased by 17.03%.
In terms of capital, northward capital also shows its favor for the non-ferrous sector. According to choice, since the opening of the market after the festival, northbound funds have continued to increase their holdings in the non-ferrous metal sector, and the market value of their holdings reached 1.028 billion yuan on the 9th.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) the report points out that the continuous rise of aluminum price will provide a short-term catalyst for the sector, and the logic of long-term supply and demand is stable: the growth of new energy related demand and strict capacity restrictions provide lower support for the sector.
