The cold in the property market is not abating, and the housing prices are unfavorable at the beginning of the year. According to the sales briefings released by listed real estate enterprises one after another, Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Longguang group, times China Holdings, huaxiangnian holdings and other real estate enterprises had a significant year-on-year decline in sales in January. Agency data show that the average sales of top 100 real estate enterprises in January fell by nearly 23% year-on-year, and the overall year-on-year decline was nearly 40%.
From the end of January to the beginning of February, the common home ownership fever in previous years also disappeared. CRIC data show that during the period from January 24 to February 6, the new supply of 40 key cities decreased by 23% compared with the same period in 2021 and 20% compared with 2019.
In this regard, Chen Sheng, President of China real estate data research institute, in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily, believed that the epidemic control had a great impact on home ownership, the public's attention to real estate sales decreased, and the negative growth of industry sales is the overall embodiment of the current real estate market.
the overall sales scale of the industry decreased by 40% year-on-year
According to the data, Gemdale Corporation(600383) January achieved a contract amount of 14.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.36%; The equity sales of Longguang group in January was 9.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.72%; In January, the sales of times China Holdings and huashinian holdings decreased by 14.40% and 77.77% respectively year-on-year.
Falling into negative growth is not an individual phenomenon. According to Kerui data, the top 100 real estate enterprises realized a sales trading amount of 525.6 billion yuan in January, with a year-on-year decrease of 39.6% and 43% lower than the average level in 2021.
In addition, according to the statistics of China Index Research Institute, in January 2022, the average sales volume of top 100 real estate enterprises was 6.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.1%. Among them, there were 15 real estate enterprises with sales of more than 10 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14; There were 22 real estate enterprises with sales of 5-10 billion, down 31 from the same period last year.
Faced with sales pressure, real estate enterprises have increased the phenomenon of price for quantity out of the need to speed up the return of funds. From the perspective of average sales price, the average sales price of equity of Longguang group decreased by 47.07% year-on-year to 17800 yuan / ping in January, almost halved compared with the same period last year, and also decreased by 27.68% month on month; The average sales price of times China Holdings and the sample year decreased by 16.58% and 11.62% year-on-year respectively, and decreased by 4.78% and 2.58% month on month respectively.
According to the statistics of Shell Research Institute, the absolute value of the trading volume of the new housing market in January 2022 has been close to the average level of the same period in 2018, 2019 and 2020, and the new housing market may begin to enter the bottom stage.
Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IPG China, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that at the time of negative growth of the industry, it is necessary for industry regulators and real estate related financial departments to jointly formulate policies and measures to promote market recovery and industry recovery according to market changes and demand status, so as to promote the real estate industry to realize a virtuous circle as soon as possible.
Chen Sheng believes that policies need incentives for buyers with rigid demand and improved demand. In addition, the developers should use the funds expected by the central enterprises to relieve the real estate crisis, so that some real estate developers can recover the normal delivery of real estate.
home ownership fever subsided
From past experience, at the end of the year, many developers often use slogans such as "special price housing" and "huge benefits at the end of the year" to attract home buyers and drive sales with low prices. This year, however, this vision has failed. Although the local property markets do not close during the Spring Festival, the buyers' willingness to buy houses is not strong, and the transactions are relatively limited, so it is difficult to become the main beam to support the sales of real estate enterprises.
For example, the equity sales of country garden, a real estate enterprise good at the layout of third and fourth tier cities, in January was 36.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.82%; The average sales price was 7870.13 yuan / flat, a year-on-year decrease of 10.99%.
CRIC monitoring data show that during the Spring Festival week from January 31 to February 6, 2022, except for a small amount of supply in a few hot cities such as Shanghai and Nanjing, most cities have zero supply. The trading volume of 40 key cities is only 445000 square meters, a month on month decrease of 84% and a year-on-year decrease of 40%. According to the data of China Index Research Institute, from January 31 to February 6, the transaction area of new commercial houses in key monitoring cities decreased by 51% compared with the Spring Festival last year.
According to Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, compared with the normal years before the epidemic, the trading volume of home buyers returning home during the Spring Festival in 2022 dropped by more than 30%.
In Bai Wenxi's view, there may be two reasons behind the decline of home ownership fever. First, the "local Chinese New Year" reduces the number of people returning home during the Spring Festival, which is often the most important time point for home ownership; Second, the structural changes of the real estate market and the policy of "housing without speculation" have greatly reduced the real estate investment function of the third and fourth tier cities and increased the risk of falling prices, resulting in a significant decline in the enthusiasm of returning home.
Yuan Shuai, Deputy Secretary General of the Rural Revitalization and Construction Committee of the China Cultural Management Association, told the Securities Daily that the direct reason for the decline of home ownership fever is the impact of covid-19 epidemic. Especially on the eve of the Spring Festival, sporadic local cases have occurred in many cities in China, and the number of people returning home has decreased sharply under the prevention and control of the epidemic.
"The fundamental reason behind it is that under the high-pressure regulation in the past two years, the demand for investment house purchase has gradually shrunk, and the rigid demand is insufficient, so it is unable to digest the local excess supply." Yuan Shuai believes that the main purpose of home buyers returning home in the past two years is to take into account that there is room for growth in house prices in the future and hope to enjoy the bonus of real estate appreciation. After the bonus is reduced, it is inevitable that the fever of returning home will subside.
Under the pressure, a series of positive signals in the property market are being released, which is expected to give buyers some confidence. According to the report of the shell Research Institute, in January, the central bank lowered the LPR, and Beihai, Nanning, Zigong and Fuzhou introduced provident fund regulation policies to reduce the threshold of provident fund purchase.
According to the latest research report, the premium of mortgage interest rate relative to LPR (compared with the benchmark interest rate before the reform) reached a historic high in the third quarter of 2021. This provides potential energy for the rapid decline of mortgage interest rate from 2022. With the release of the demand for stock mortgage loans, the reduction of mortgage pricing by financial institutions in order to strive for a greater share will help stabilize China's real estate market after March 2022, but there will be no significant rise in house prices.
