Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MFL and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted. After the year of the tiger got off to a good start, although it ushered in a continuous rebound, there was a large differentiation between the indexes, the structural market was very obvious, and the quality of the market rebound still needs to be verified. The continuous decline of new energy and pharmaceutical stocks is in sharp contrast to the rise of finance, infrastructure and other sectors. Under the high-low switching, the main line of the spring market is relatively clear.
Yesterday, during the rebound of the two cities, the Shenzhen composite index also successfully recovered its 5-day moving average, forming a resonance with the Shanghai index. Unfortunately, however, the gem is still below the 5-day moving average, and there are new adjustments at the opening today, especially under the sharp drop of more than 7% in Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , the continuous adjustment of the gem is still relatively tragic. In addition to the decline of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , many shares in the cro sector are much larger, which is also a drag on the gem.
Since the year of the tiger, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has fallen by more than 13%, a typical "black door". Basically, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) disclosed the performance forecast for 2021, and the annual net profit is expected to be 14 billion yuan - 16.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 150.75% - 195.52%. This is also the highest profit level since Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) was listed in 2018. However, in terms of news, the previous adverse rumors of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) also have a certain impact, and what is more noteworthy is that under the background of the excellent sales situation of new energy vehicles, more and more competitors begin to enter the market, and the division of market share also brings competition to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , which may be the reason why the market is more worried after the continuous sharp rise of share price. Because Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has a large weight on the gem, the continuous decline of its share price has a serious drag on the gem.
In sharp contrast to the sharp adjustment of the gem, the rebound of the Shanghai stock index has increased by more than 3% since the year of the tiger. Specifically, both banks and non bank finance have increased by more than 4%, together with the boost of infrastructure and oil sectors, the Shanghai stock index has been relatively strong. The upward trend of the financial sector is mainly the expectation of market valuation repair. The performance of infrastructure and other sectors is mostly boosted by policies under steady growth. But in addition, the valuations of these sectors and the subject matter as a whole are relatively low, which has certain valuation advantages. With the boost of monetary easing, the benefits can be reflected.
Therefore, the trend of "high-low switching" in the market is very obvious, and the main line of the spring market is also clear, that is, the valuation repair is still the main line of the market. In this possible spring market, periodic opportunities are relatively prominent.
Of course, the above is only what we can see from the market performance, and from the institutional research and historical market trend, it is basically in line with this logic. On the one hand, institutional research focuses on undervalued targets. According to the report of Shanghai Securities News, among the seven A-share companies surveyed by more than 50 institutions since February 1, except one with a loss and one with a rolling P / E ratio of more than 100 times, the P / E ratio of other companies is mostly in the range of more than 20 times to more than 30 times, and one company is less than 20 times; On the other hand, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that historically, in the "steady growth" spring market, A-Shares tend to value first and then grow. For example, undervalued financial, real estate, new infrastructure and other sectors will rise first. In other words, under the current trend, there is still a certain historical reference value.
Therefore, although the year of the tiger has a good start, the quality of the rebound has yet to be verified, the market is still falling repeatedly, and the structural market is still relatively obvious. Under the trend of high-low switching, continue to pay attention to the valuation repair market under the opening of the easing cycle. Of course, there is no need to be too pessimistic about the market. We are still optimistic about the current possible spring market. After all, with the policy support of steady growth and the boost of monetary easing, coupled with the rebound of sentiment during the Spring Festival, the phased bottom of the market is expected to form. The restorative market and spring market may have been opened. At present, it is still a good time for bargain hunting.
