Current investment tips:
Recent views: 1) household sector: the impairment risk of bulk business will be released to some extent in 2021, and there will be a differentiation stage of growth and growth in the future; The medium and long-term winner still lies in the construction of retail operation capacity. Considering the continuous release of the steady growth force, the improvement of the beta end of the industry can still be expected; However, from the perspective of the certainty of performance growth, companies with strong retail genes have a more solid foundation for performance growth and will steadily increase their market share; The improvement of supply chain capacity + the improvement of channel multi category operation capacity, driving the level of customer unit value, and the certainty of EPS growth reflects strong alpha. Recommended: Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Minhua holdings, Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) . 2) Packaging sector: the competition pattern of the packaging sub track is optimized. After the stress test in 2021, it can still achieve steady growth, reflecting the continuous strengthening of the voice of the leader in the industrial chain. After the marginal improvement of external demand and the easing of the pressure on raw materials and energy costs, it is expected to reflect the profit elasticity after 2022. It is recommended to recommend Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co.Ltd(601968) , Org Technology Co.Ltd(002701) and COFCO packaging of metal packaging, Paper packaged Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) ; For packaging companies with new business extension opportunities, the traditional business contributes to stable cash flow, and the new business extension provides valuation flexibility. It is recommended that Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) , Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co.Ltd(600210) , Shenzhen Leaguer Co.Ltd(002243) ; Follow the large-scale growth of the downstream high boom track, such as Shanghai Ailu Package Co.Ltd(301062) to achieve a breakthrough in cheese stick packaging film technology. 3) Papermaking sector: special paper segment, decorative base paper industry has a good relationship between supply and demand, stable competition pattern, Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) stable and strong profitability; The demand for bulk paper 2021q4 is weak, the cost pressure cannot be transmitted, and the profit is under pressure. The profit of 2022q1 is expected to improve. Pay attention to Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) with the advantage of self-produced raw materials. 4) Light industry and consumer industry: the rise of domestic goods and the construction of new driving forces for development; After the bonus of channel expansion in previous years, the development momentum in the next stage will turn to product power and brand power, which can effectively resist the impact of macro demand and the change of channel flow. It is recommended that Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) , Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) .
Prospect of performance by Sector:
Home furnishing: 2021q4 software home furnishing enterprises maintain steady growth, and the profit of customized home furnishing is obviously under pressure. Under the pressure of real estate completion and second-hand housing regulation policies, the income growth of Q4 leading household enterprises slowed down month on month. Looking forward to the future, under the expectation of steady growth, the risk of new house completion and second-hand house transaction stall is not large, and the household consumption demand is not pessimistic. From a longer perspective, leading enterprises build through retail capacity-building, improve market share, expand categories and channels to achieve steady growth, which is expected to overcome the impact of beta fluctuations. Finished home: head enterprises accelerate share expansion and integration. The domestic price of software has been continuously increased through the optimization of the domestic sales pattern, which reflects the continuous pressure of software enterprises to increase the domestic price for many times; The export growth of Q4 has slowed down significantly due to the high base, the epidemic and the global supply chain. In terms of profit, gradually raise the price of customers, transmit the pressure of raw materials and freight, and look forward to reflecting the profit elasticity in the subsequent quarters. In the medium and long term, enterprises with overseas production capacity continue to improve their concentration. Customized home furnishings: provision for bulk impairment, lagging cost transmission and profit pressure. The bulk business tends to be cautious, the growth rate of Q4 slows down, and the growth rate of leading retail business is stronger, reflecting the competitiveness of multiple categories, all channels and multiple brands. Customized home furnishing enterprises accrued bad debts receivable from bulk businesses in Q4, resulting in low expected profit performance; The rising cost of raw materials and the low profit margin of new businesses also put pressure on the performance of operating profits. In the later stage, it is expected to stabilize and improve the profit margin by adjusting the product price system, improving efficiency and reducing fees.
Packaging and printing: 2021q4 has entered the relatively peak season of some consumption, and the overall operation remains high. The transmission of cost pressure lags behind. It is expected that the improvement of pattern will bring long-term profit improvement. Although the price of upstream raw materials in the metal packaging industry continues to rise, with the improvement of the industry structure, the early price increase has been successfully implemented, reflecting the significant improvement of the bargaining power of the industry, and the profit is expected to continue to improve. The comprehensive solution of the leading paper packaging enterprise is reflected, and the increase of revenue share is accelerated.
Papermaking: the prosperity of the industry is weak, the pressure on the cost side is difficult to conduct, and the profit of Q4 is under pressure. Pulp and paper system: Q4 has entered the off-season of cultural paper demand. The poor consumption performance in China affects the demand for white cardboard, and the demand for pulp and paper products is weak. After the sharp price reduction in Q3, the profits of the industry deteriorated, the price of Q4 paper basically stabilized, and the average price of Q4 double offset paper / coated paper / white cardboard decreased by 0.7% / 2.4% / 1.9% month on month to 6108 / 5627 / 6582 yuan / ton respectively. On the cost side, the average price of Q4 coal increased by 177 yuan / ton (18% increase) month on month. Considering a certain coal inventory of the paper mill, the high coal price from September to October was mainly reflected in Q4, and the energy cost of the paper mill increased significantly. The profit of Q4 industry has deteriorated significantly, Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) product portfolio is perfect, and the profit toughness is still significantly stronger than that of the industry.
The demand for Q4 carton board and corrugated paper has improved, the price increase is smooth, and the pressure of raw materials and energy costs is transmitted. The average price of Q4 carton board / corrugated paper has increased by 8% / 9% to 5164 / 4251 yuan / ton month on month respectively, and the profit of Q4 is expected to improve month on month. The demand for medium and high-end decorative base paper products is upward, the relationship between supply and demand is good, the competition pattern is stable, Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) occupies the leading position of medium and high-end decorative base paper, the product has high added value, strong bargaining power and stable profitability.
Light industry consumption: Stationery consumption is slightly suppressed in stages. It is expected that the subsequent leaders will reflect alpha with their own ability. Household light industry: Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) : affected by the double reduction policy, the periodic performance of traditional retail is under pressure. The company is expected to drive the recovery of growth through new channels and product structure upgrading. Klip has a large number of new customers, and the growth of Jiumu same store has recovered. Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) : accelerate the promotion of online and offline diversified channels. With its own high-quality design and product strength, ancient French gold products have sprung up, and the playing method of national tide differentiation trend continues to increase market share.
Forecast of annual report performance of household sector:
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will increase by more than 30% year-on-year: Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 243 million yuan, yoy + 134%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 61 million yuan, yoy - 16%; the overseas business management is improved, on track, growing rapidly, and the expense amortization is reduced), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is RMB 1.680 billion, yoy + 99%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is RMB 442 million, turning losses into profits; the impact of goodwill impairment accrued in 20q4 is restored, which is RMB 484 million, 2021yoy + 26%, 21q4yoy + 38%; category expansion and business integration are getting better, channel efficiency continues to be optimized, and competitiveness continues to be strengthened), Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) (in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 555 million yuan, yoy + 77%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 181 million yuan, yoy + 36%; domestic self owned brands made efforts to drive the rapid growth of revenue and upward profit margin), Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.729 billion yuan, yoy + 32%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 616 million yuan, yoy + 1%; wardrobe retail and packaged large household power, the first household company with an income of more than 20 billion yuan);
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will increase by 0-30% year-on-year: Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 510 million yuan, yoy + 29%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 210 million yuan, yoy + 6%; the risk of bulk business is controllable, and the growth is driven by retail wardrobe), Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 120 million yuan, yoy + 18%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 33 million yuan, yoy - 25%), Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) (net profit attributable to parent company in 2021 was 340 million yuan, yoy + 16%, of which 218 million yuan was attributable to parent company in 21q4, yoy + 26%; retail driving force was enhanced, continued and stable growth, bulk distribution mode, controllable risk and no impairment effect), Dare Power Dekor Home Co.Ltd(000910) (net profit attributable to parent company in 2021 was 677 million yuan, yoy + 8%, of which 198 million yuan was attributable to parent company in 21q4, yoy 0%);
It is estimated that the year-on-year decline in the net profit attributable to the parent in 2021 is: Guangzhou Seagull Kitchen And Bath Products Co.Ltd(002084) (the net profit attributable to the parent in 2021 is 135 million yuan, yoy - 11%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent in 21q4 is 19 million yuan, yoy - 65%), Markor International Home Furnishings Co.Ltd(600337) (the net profit attributable to the parent in 2021 is 250 million yuan, yoy - 18%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent in 21q4 is 99 million yuan, yoy - 65%), Guangzhou Holike Creative Home Co.Ltd(603898) (net profit attributable to parent company in 2021 was 166 million yuan, yoy - 40%, of which 21q4 net profit attributable to parent company was - 68 million yuan; provision for impairment of bulk business was 90-190 million yuan, affecting profit performance), Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co.Ltd(603208) (net profit attributable to parent company in 2021 was 244 million yuan, yoy - 43%, of which 21q4 net profit attributable to parent company was - 47 million yuan; provision for impairment of bulk business was about 200 million yuan, affecting profit performance), Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 125 million yuan, yoy - 90%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was - 724 million yuan; in 2021, the revenue target of 10 billion yuan was achieved, the provision for bulk impairment was 925 million yuan, and young clothes were launched into retail in 2022);
It is estimated that the loss of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is: Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) (net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is - 270 million yuan, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is - 90 million yuan), Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co.Ltd(002853) (net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is - 835 million yuan, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is - 1004 million yuan).
Prospect of annual report performance of packaging and printing sector:
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will increase by more than 50% year-on-year: Shanghai Ailu Package Co.Ltd(301062) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 155 million yuan, yoy + 108%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 39 million yuan, yoy + 31%; the packaging film of 21q4 cheese stick continues to grow high, driving the revenue and profit upward), Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co.Ltd(601968) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 264 million yuan, yoy + 66%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 60 million yuan, yoy + 410%; the consolidated statement of minority shareholders' rights and interests is thickened, the price of two-piece cans is raised, and the new production line promotes the improvement of profitability);
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will increase by 0-50% year-on-year: Org Technology Co.Ltd(002701) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 900 million yuan, yoy + 27%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 75 million yuan, yoy - 67%; the price rise of raw materials in 21q4 makes it difficult to conduct the cost pressure of three piece cans, and the profit is under pressure), Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 1.015 billion yuan, yoy + 23%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 198 million yuan, yoy + 23%), Shantou Dongfeng Printing Co.Ltd(601515) (2021 net profit attributable to parent company: 623 million yuan, yoy + 14%, of which 21q4 net profit attributable to parent company: 35 million yuan, yoy - 82%), Shenzhen Leaguer Co.Ltd(002243) (2021 net profit attributable to parent company: 650 million yuan, yoy + 11%, of which 21q4 net profit attributable to parent company: 280 million yuan, yoy - 6%), Huangshan Novel Co.Ltd(002014) (2021 net profit attributable to parent company: 310 million yuan, yoy + 2%, of which 21q4 net profit attributable to parent company: 96 million yuan, yoy + 11%), Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 1.140 billion yuan, yoy + 2%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 472 million yuan, yoy + 2%; there are many categories on the income side, customers are motivated at the waist, the pressure on the cost side of 21q4 is improved month on month, and the profit elasticity is expected to be released in 2022);
It is estimated that the year-on-year decline in the net profit attributable to the parent in 2021 is: Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co.Ltd(600210) (the net profit attributable to the parent in 2021 is 550 million yuan, yoy-3%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent in 21q4 is 120 million yuan, yoy - 4%), Xiamen Hexing Packaging Printing Co.Ltd(002228) (the net profit attributable to the parent in 2021 is 260 million yuan, yoy - 10%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent in 21q4 is 55 million yuan, yoy - 24%);
It is estimated that the loss of net profit attributable to the parent in 2021 is: Shanghai Shunho New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002565) (the net profit attributable to the parent in 2021 is - 26 million yuan, of which the net profit attributable to the parent in 21q4 is - 16 million yuan).
Prospect of annual report performance of papermaking sector:
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will increase by more than 50% year-on-year: Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 1.703 billion yuan, yoy + 104%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is - 214 million yuan), Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 445 million yuan, yoy + 71%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 125 million yuan, yoy + 43%; the supply and demand and competition pattern of medium and high-end decorative base paper are good, and 21q4 maintains a stable and high profit), Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 2.988 billion yuan, yoy + 53%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 220 million yuan, yoy - 62%; the prosperity of 21q4 industry is down, the pressure on energy costs is high, and the profit is under pressure), Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 2 billion yuan, yoy + 17%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is - 182 million yuan);
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will increase by 0-50% year-on-year: Zhejiang Jingxing Paper Joint Stock Co.Ltd(002067) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 452 million yuan, yoy + 45%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 91 million yuan, yoy - 16%), Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 1.7 billion yuan, yoy + 23%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 393 million yuan, yoy - 1%), Qifeng New Material Co.Ltd(002521) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 168 million yuan, yoy + 5%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 09 million yuan, yoy - 84%)
It is estimated that the year-on-year decline in the net profit attributable to the parent in 2021 is: Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) (the net profit attributable to the parent in 2021 is 390 million yuan, yoy-6%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent in 21q4 is 33 million yuan, yoy - 78%).
Forecast of annual report performance of light industry consumption sector:
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will increase by more than 50% year-on-year: No. 9 company - WD (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 425 million yuan, yoy + 478%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 37 million yuan, turning losses into profits), Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 345 million yuan, yoy + 147%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 60 million yuan, yoy + 2%; the reform of franchise channels is promoted, the rise of national tide is followed, the market share continues to increase, and the increase of 21q4 bonus and other expenses leads to a slight slowdown in profit growth);
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will increase by 0-50% year-on-year: Fiyta Precision Technology Co.Ltd(000026) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 400 million yuan, yoy + 36%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 57 million yuan, yoy - 28%), Gongniu Group Co.Ltd(603195) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 2.93 billion yuan, yoy + 27%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 724 million yuan, yoy + 1%), Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 230 million yuan, yoy + 26%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 57 million yuan, yoy + 8%), Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 1.494 billion yuan, yoy + 19%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 377 million yuan, yoy + 10%; after the one-time impact of the double reduction policy, the future growth rate is expected to be repaired by virtue of the advantages of brand + channel + product structure upgrading);
It is estimated that the year-on-year decline in the net profit attributable to the parent in 2021 is: C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) (the net profit attributable to the parent in 2021 is 550 million yuan, yoy-39%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent in 21q4 is 66 million yuan, yoy - 72%), Tianjin Yiyi Hygiene Products Co.Ltd(001206) (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 115 million yuan, yoy - 41%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 12 million yuan, yoy - 56%; due to the overseas epidemic and transportation, the delivery and import of raw materials are limited, the cost increases and the profit margin decreases).
