The global economy is in different cycles. Western countries led by the United States are in the stage of overheating, while China is in the stage of slowdown. The Federal Reserve is preparing to raise interest rates to combat high inflation, and the Central Bank of China has started to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy to achieve steady growth. The macro group expects the fed to raise interest rates four times this year, the first in March; The Central Bank of China still cut interest rates to a large extent this year.
Global liquidity is tightening and the cycle of US dollar appreciation is not over. The trend of gold price in large categories of assets is close to the real interest rate in the United States. With the recovery of labor participation rate and the normalization of industrial capacity utilization, the real interest rate in the United States began to rise and the gold price tended to fall. The international oil price may exceed US $100 / barrel due to international politics, climate and supply. However, in the whole year, due to the formation of economic downward trend, the oil price may decline by the end of the year. Due to the influence of policies such as dual control of China’s energy consumption, the growth rate of copper production has been negative for 11 consecutive months, resulting in the decline of copper price, but it is expected to start to decline significantly in the second quarter. The CSI 300 index is returning to economic fundamentals and is expected to continue to callback to the middle of the year, while the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds will continue to record low and the bond bull market will continue.
China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) major asset allocation index is a macro allocation index constructed with gold, crude oil, copper, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and ten-year Treasury bonds as assets. Asset allocation suggestions are given according to the trend prediction of these types of assets. Since its establishment this year, it has achieved a yield of more than 18% in the first month. The allocation strategy changed in February. The new portfolio is 10% short in gold, 10% long in copper, 40% short in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and 40% long in 10-year Treasury bonds.
Risk tip: the Federal Reserve unexpectedly tightened monetary policy; China’s real estate regulation policy is too strong; Covid-19 virus broke out again in the world; Concentrated outbreak of credit events; The range and frequency of interest rate reduction are inconsistent with the actual situation.
