Some new energy vehicle manufacturers raised their selling prices (generally 2% – 5%), and the pressure on the industrial chain is expected to be further released. Affected by the rising cost of upstream power batteries and the decline of subsidies, some Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle manufacturers issued notices of price increases at the end of 2021 and January 2022. On December 28, 2021, the selling price of T03 under Zero run automobile increased. The selling price of 2022 models was 68900-84900 yuan, while the selling price of 2021 models was 59800-99800 yuan. The price of 2022 models with the lowest configuration increased by 8000 yuan, or about 10%, compared with that of 2021 models; Since January 2022, the price of LX will increase by 4000 yuan, the starting price will reach 230000 yuan, and the price of aion s plus will increase by 7000 yuan; The prices of Nezha V, Nezha u pro and other models have increased by about 2000 yuan to 5000 yuan since January 1, 2022; On January 11, 2022, the price of all models of Xiaopeng increased after the subsidy, with an average increase of about 5000 yuan; Byd Company Limited(002594) since February 1, 2022, the official guidance price of new energy models related to dynasty.com and ocean.com will be adjusted, with an increase range of 1000-7000 yuan, of which the increase range of Yuan Pro is the largest, with an increase of 7000 yuan and a price increase range of about 7%.
The recent price adjustment is the release of the pressure on the upstream of the industrial chain. Due to the strong medium and long-term demand of the terminal and the accelerated implementation of the expansion of production in the upstream of the industrial chain, we are optimistic about the subsequent marginal upward of the profits of the middle and downstream and the prosperity of the whole year in 2022. The specific reasons are as follows: (1) the price adjustment range is limited, generally 2% – 5%, and only a few models below 100000 have a price adjustment range of more than 5%; (2) Automobile enterprises have released many new energy models, and the listing of widely concerned new models will further stimulate consumer demand; (3) The decision of consumers to choose oil vehicles or electric vehicles will not be changed due to the small price increase of electric vehicles, and the general trend of increasing the penetration rate of electrification brought by the improvement of product power remains unchanged.
We believe that the investment in the upward cycle of electric vehicles has entered the third stage and pay attention to the opportunities in three directions: (a) core growth: the leaders with high barriers and links, and the first-line leaders such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) have benefited; (b) Post cycle: hydrogen energy, charging and changing electricity, etc; (c) New technologies: flat wire, 4680 battery, Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) etc.
The price increase may have a short-term impact (pay attention to the time lag caused by the delivery cycle). In the long run, the short-term impact of the price increase of product competitiveness still needs to be observed, and the lag effect of popular models may be large. Take Byd Company Limited(002594) as an example. The strategy of Byd Company Limited(002594) is to increase the price from February 1, and you can enjoy the original price if you order a car before February. At present, the delivery cycle of popular models such as Byd Company Limited(002594) DMI is about 3 months, so it is necessary to further track the new order volume in February / March.
There is a certain time lag in the transmission of the impact of the price increase of the new forces of car making on the delivery volume. New power usually publishes the delivery volume data. Based on the fact that most new energy vehicle manufacturers are not spot sales, customers generally have to go through a delivery period of 1-2 months after placing an order (Weilai takes the fastest delivery, usually within 1 month, Xiaopeng and ideal usually take 1-2 months, and Nezha and zero run take about 60 days), There is a certain time lag in the transmission of the impact of price increase on sales. Take Nezha as an example. In January 2022, Nezha delivered 11009 new cars, an increase of 402% over January 2021. However, according to the estimated delivery period of 60 days disclosed on the official website, the delivery volume in January is actually the conversion volume of Q4 orders in 2021. It is preliminarily inferred that the impact of the price increase of automobile enterprises will generally be revealed after the delivery of old orders.
The medium and long-term sales volume depends on the comprehensive competitiveness of vehicles at the same level. Taking Tesla as an example, several price increases in 2021 did not affect its hot sales. Behind the sales volume is the competitiveness of its products in the price range of 250000-350000.
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials continues to rise
