Market review: nonferrous metals sector index continues to adjust
Since January, the nonferrous metals sector has declined by 5.07% as a whole, while the CSI 300 index has fallen by 5.84% in the same period, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.76 percentage points. According to the classification of Shenwan level industries, the non-ferrous sector has ranked in the middle among the 28 industries since January, with obvious adjustment for two consecutive months. There are great differences in the market, resulting in obvious stock price fluctuations.
Industrial metals: monetary policy is tight outside and loose inside, and the trend of metal prices is divided. Copper: tightening overseas liquidity suppresses copper prices, but copper prices continue to fluctuate with the support of low global inventories.
Aluminum: alumina and electrolytic aluminum rose simultaneously. Since December, the market has hyped the energy shortage in Europe. During the Spring Festival, China’s aluminum ingot inventory is low, which is mainly due to the increase of some aluminum molten cast rods. However, even considering the inventory increase of aluminum ingots and rods, it is lower than that in the same period of previous years. The price of vid-19 alumina in Baise, the third largest producer in China, rebounded sharply.
Lithium: the supply and demand of lithium ore and lithium salt are still in the most tense moment
The price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate has accelerated to 382500 yuan / ton; The price of spodumene imported from China rose rapidly, and the spot price rose to US $2710 / ton. On the supply side, the output of lithium extraction from Qinghai Salt Lake in China will decline in winter; On the demand side, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) medium-sized vehicles continued to exceed expectations, driving the release of production and sales of cathode materials, especially the output of lithium iron phosphate remained strong. It is expected that at present, the supply and demand of lithium ore and lithium salt is still in the most tense moment. The tight situation of global lithium ore supply and demand is difficult to alleviate in the short term, and the lithium price is expected to remain high.
Cobalt: repeated outbreaks in Africa have led to delays in the delivery of raw materials, and the price of cobalt has risen steadily. The latest average price of MB standard cobalt is US $34.60/lb, and the latest price of China Electric cobalt is 500000 yuan / ton, setting a three-year high. The recent epidemic in South Africa repeatedly led to delayed delivery of raw materials, and the shipping schedule was generally extended by 2-2.5 months; The quantity of cobalt raw materials arriving in Hong Kong in November was lower than expected, and higher than expected in December. The tight supply of cobalt raw materials in China has eased, but it still remains tight. The global cobalt supply chain is relatively fragile. Under the tight balance between supply and demand, the instability of supply is easy to affect the price of cobalt.
Rare earth: the price rose steadily. The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the first batch of indicators this year. On January 27, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the first batch of total control indicators for rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2022, with indicators of 108000 tons and 97200 tons respectively, an increase of 20% year-on-year. Among them, the mining index of medium and heavy rare earth mines remained unchanged, and the increment came from light rare earth mines. The mining index of light rare earth mines was 89310 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.17%. The price of rare earth rose steadily. As of February 9, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 980000 yuan / ton; Dysprosium oxide quotation: 3.045 million yuan / ton; The price of terbium oxide is 13.8 million yuan / ton.
Recommended targets: Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , China Hongqiao, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Jiangsu Asia-Pacific Light Alloy Technology Co.Ltd(002540) .
Risk tip: repeated outbreaks have led to economic recovery less than expected; The turning point of monetary policy normalization of major foreign central banks is faster than market expectations; Supply increased more than expected.
