The overall white power market recovered slowly in 2021. 1) Air conditioning: in 2021, the annual retail sales of China’s air conditioning market was 152.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%; In 2021, the retail volume of air conditioners was 46.89 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%. 2) Refrigerator: in 2021, the annual retail sales of China’s refrigerator market reached 97.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.9%,; In 2021, the retail volume of refrigerators was 31.88 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%. 3) Washing machine:
In 2021, the annual retail sales of China’s washing machine market was 76.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%,; In 2021, the retail volume of washing machines was 37.18 million, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8%.
Industrial structure: in the past 21 years, the white power market has shown a trend of structural optimization and upgrading. 1) Air conditioning market:
In 2021, the average price of air-conditioning online / offline products increased year-on-year. In 2021q4, the average price of China’s air-conditioning online products was 2472 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%; The average price of products in offline China’s air conditioning market was 4161 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%. After the epidemic, 92% of consumers will pay special attention to health functions when purchasing household appliances. While the scale of the new wind industry is growing rapidly, the number of brands is also growing quarter by quarter. 2) Refrigerator market:
In terms of average product price, the average online price of refrigerator in 2021 was 2365 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 255 yuan, and the average offline price was 5571 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 733 yuan; In terms of product structure, the concept of large volume & small volume and large volume in multi temperature areas continued to upgrade, and the sales of cross + French multi doors under 21q4 line increased by 1.67%; The sales of online door-to-door + cross products increased by 8.75%. With the active participation and investment of Haier, Meiling, Panasonic and other enterprises, the optimization of free embedding space is also improving steadily. Free embedded products have developed from the initial “10cm on both sides” to the current “stable full embedding”, driving the continuous growth of the air-cooled two door market. 3) Washing machine Market: in terms of average product price, the average online price of washing machine in 2021 was 1647 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 147 yuan, and the average offline price was 3794 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 389 yuan; In terms of product structure, the retail sales of roller drying online market increased by 3.73% year-on-year in 2021; Online retail volume increased by 2.38% year-on-year; In 2021, the retail sales of offline market increased by 1.27% year-on-year; Offline retail sales increased by 2.74% year-on-year.
Competition pattern: the market concentration of white power industry is higher. 1) Air conditioning: in 2021, the share of online top3 brands was 72.5%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.4pct; The top 5 brand share was 83.8%, with a year-on-year -3.9pct, and the online market competition was relatively more intense. The share of offline top3 brands was 83.8%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.2pct; Top 5 brand share 92%, year-on-year + 1.6pct 2) Refrigerator: in 2021, the share of online top3 brands was 68%, with a year-on-year increase of + 3PCT; The share of top5 brand was 79%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2pct. The share of offline top3 brands was 63%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1PCT; Top 5 brands share 80%, up + 1PCT 3) Washing machine: in 2021, the online top 3 brand share was 71.6%, compared with + 4pct in 2019, and the top 5 brand share was 81%, compared with + 4pct in 2019.
The share of offline top3 brands is 63.2%, compared with + 3PCT in 2019; The share of top5 brand is 79.2%, compared with + 2pct in 2019.
Investment advice
Benefiting from the recent adjustment of credit policy, the funds in place of real estate enterprises show signs of improvement. The marginal change of policy is expected to be reflected in the recovery of completion data, and the domestic sales of household appliances are expected to benefit. On the profit side, the price of main raw materials has entered a high and stable stage, and the shortage of shipping capacity is expected to be gradually alleviated. It is expected that the backlog of goods in the early stage will gradually return to the normal shipping rhythm, and the shipping price will fall steadily; At the same time, home appliance manufacturers continue to promote the high-end process, which will effectively thicken the profit elasticity of the industry. Suggestions: Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) .
Risk tips
1) the impact of the epidemic on the macro-economy did not meet expectations; 2) The second impact of overseas epidemic may affect the export of household appliances; 3) The price war in the household appliance industry has intensified; 4) Sluggish real estate performance; 5) Risk of rising raw material prices, etc
