Since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has been volatile, and the little partners are shivering again.
Data show that on February 10, the trend of the three major A-share indexes differentiated. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, but both the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index fell. In particular, the gem index remained at 2800 points and closed at 2826.52 points, down 1.98% for the whole day.
In terms of industry, among CITIC's primary industries, consumer services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and coal led the increase, rising by 3.95%, 2.71% and 2.33% respectively; Machinery, household appliances, power equipment and new energy decreased by 1.43%, 2.03% and 3.00% respectively.
Under the market shock, how should the future market layout? Fund Jun interviewed a number of investment researchers and believed that although the performance of the index is cold and hot, there are investment opportunities behind the adjustment, and the spring market of A-Shares may still be on the way
mainstream index differentiation
the Spring Festival market of A-Shares may still be on the way
Referring to the current market pattern, Boshi Fund said that today, the trend of A-Shares was divided again, the Shanghai index fluctuated upward, the gem fell nearly 2%, and individual stocks fell more or less. Since this year, the overall performance of the global market is not very good, and the performance of A-Shares is not satisfactory.
Boshi Fund said that under the background of downward pressure on China's economy, the central economic work conference once again proposed "focusing on economic construction", a number of policies conducive to "stable growth" were introduced, the loose monetary cycle continued, and the overall liquidity was abundant, but A-Shares did not rise as expected, It shows that the current monetary policy and liquidity conditions are not the main factors determining the market, and the economic environment has a greater impact on the market trend. In the current situation of weak market sentiment as a whole, the short-term A-shares will still maintain the shock pattern, and the large infrastructure sector benefiting from policy support will be relatively more deterministic in the near future and will be more favored by funds.
In this regard, Golden Eagle Fund also believes that with the gradual stabilization and improvement of market sentiment, the spring market of A-Shares may still be on the way. After the Spring Festival and before the two sessions, China is entering the observation period of "steady growth" and "moderately advanced policy force", and China's liquidity environment tends to be loose. After the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it is expected that the suppression factors of overseas and Chinese funds may also subside, and the stock funds such as bank credit, fund issuance and self purchase may improve. With the return of foreign capital and other funds, the confidence of A-share market is also expected to be boosted.
In terms of industry allocation, under balanced allocation, it is recommended to pay attention to the technology sector with cost-effective valuation. In the short term, after the adjustment of the technology sector, in the subsequent intensive disclosure period of the quarterly reports, the business direction with high performance and cost-effective performance can still be adjusted. The main line of "steady growth", i.e. bank real estate chain, new and old infrastructure chain and mass consumption, may still be expected by the market before the policy is implemented.
Referring to the trend of the gem, Cai Zhiwei, the fund manager of RONGTONG gem index, said bluntly that "the gem callback ushers in a medium and long-term configuration window". He predicted that the A-share market may fluctuate widely in 2022, and remained optimistic about the medium and long-term trend of the gem.
Cai Zhiwei has digested the high value of the A-share market in the past three consecutive months since 2021. At present, the valuation level of A-Shares has returned to a reasonably low level; From the perspective of corporate profitability, the profitability of A-share non-financial enterprises in 2022 is high before and low after. The roe peak is expected to be in the first quarter of 2022, and the annual growth rate is expected to be low single digit growth. From the perspective of asset allocation, the long-term trend of residents' asset allocation to equity assets remains unchanged. From the perspective of structure, industry differentiation is expected to be balanced. First, steady growth assets are expected to be relaxed after the comprehensive reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates, as well as the financing policies related to real estate. The undervalued real estate leaders, banks, securities companies and infrastructure chains will benefit from the overweight of steady growth policies. Second, the high view industry is expected to return to strength after digesting the valuation in the near future, including the new energy vehicle industry chain, photovoltaic and wind power of new infrastructure.
Generally speaking, Cai Zhiwei believes that the current stock market valuation is at a medium low level and China's policy is loose, but corporate profits are relatively weak this year. We expect that the A-share market may fluctuate widely in 2022. We are optimistic about the medium and long-term trend of the gem: first, from the Perspective of policy, the policy inflection point has appeared, The central economic work conference set the tone of "stability"; The first interest rate cut by the central bank on January 17 also confirms the continuous implementation of "stable growth". We believe that the follow-up monetary and fiscal policies are expected to be strengthened. Second, from the perspective of index profit growth, the profit growth advantage of GEM has expanded: the profit growth rate of major market indexes is generally high in 2021, but there will be differentiation in 2022. The profit growth rate of gem is expected to be significantly better than that of CSI 300 and the whole market; Third, from the perspective of valuation level, after this round of adjustment, the matching degree between the profit growth of gem and its valuation in 2022 has returned to an appropriate level, with high cost performance; Fourth, from the perspective of asset allocation, the long-term trend of residents' asset allocation to equity assets remains unchanged
new energy callback attracted attention
not pessimistic about the future
Today, the track of scientific and technological growth continues to callback, especially in the field of new energy, which has once again aroused market concern and concern. However, many fund companies expressed optimism about the future market.
Boshi fund also said that the recent correction of the new energy vehicle sector has been large, mainly because the Fed's interest rate hike has suppressed the valuation of the global growth sector, and the short-term market's preference for the stable growth sector has increased under the background of China's strong expectation of stable growth, and the current market lacks incremental admission funds, Phased suppression of the formation of new energy vehicle sector.
At the current time point, Boshi is still firmly optimistic about the investment opportunities in the new energy vehicle industry. Globally, the policies of new energy vehicles are continuously increasing, which is in line with the theme of carbon neutrality and the direction of energy conservation and emission reduction. At the same time, it is also one of the ways for China to promote consumption and domestic demand. At present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is still less than 10% in the world. The industry still has a high outlook and strong certainty of long-term growth.
In addition, after the early correction, the valuation of the sector has gradually approached the bottom of history, and the industry fundamentals are in the stage of short-term, medium and long-term upward at the same time. Boshi Fund believes that the darkest moment of the new energy vehicle sector has passed. Looking back, the correction range will not be too large, and the current valuation cost performance is higher than that before the adjustment, Relatively more optimistic about the performance of core leading companies in the industrial chain.
Yan Anqi, fund manager of Nord, said that the promising new energy vehicle segment - diaphragm. Diaphragm is one of the main materials of lithium battery. Although it accounts for only 10% of the total cost of the battery, it plays a vital role in the performance and safety of the battery.
The high technical content of diaphragm and large equipment investment make the industry pattern relatively clear and the concentration of head enterprises is high.
From the comparison at home and abroad, the production expansion speed of Chinese companies is significantly higher than that of overseas companies, and the supply relationship among the world's major battery companies is more comprehensive, so they can enjoy the dividends of the development of the global lithium battery market. Compared with Chinese diaphragm companies, there are obvious differences in profitability, which comes from scale effect, customer relationship and product structure: binding head battery companies, mass production and sales can share more costs; If a production line is specially opened for a customer to produce a type of diaphragm, the shutdown and switching time will be reduced, so as to improve efficiency; If the diaphragm coating link is added at the same time, more added value will be generated.
At present, the diaphragm has new technological development directions, such as online coating technology, which can further reduce the cost, further optimize the industry pattern, and is expected to generate better investment opportunities.
In addition, Cinda Bank of Australia believes that the recent adjustment is a concentrated vent of the market's short-term irrational emotions. It is expected that there is little possibility of a sharp decline in the A-share market this year, and the probability continues to fluctuate. We should actively grasp structural investment opportunities. We are always optimistic about the long-term development of China's economy and the huge investment opportunities it brings. Investment opportunities are often bred in market twists and turns. We should actively embrace excellent A-share listed enterprises and share the dividends of China's economic development.
In addition, for the investment in 2022, we need to further focus on the mining of subdivided industries without worrying too much about the overall market. We should cherish the gem below 2800 points and the Shanghai composite index below 3400 points. The industries with deep decline in the early stage have the internal driving force of short-term rebound, so we suggest holding it patiently. In terms of investment layout, we can pay attention to the following three aspects: first, oversold industries such as transportation, tourism, aquaculture and real estate chain; Second, the long-term development logic of green power, new energy, wind power, photovoltaic and other tracks in the field of "carbon neutralization" has not changed; Third, environmental protection, construction and other counter cyclical sectors, whose performance growth certainty will be more fully reflected this year.
Previously, Jingshun Great Wall investment research team said that after the recent sharp correction in the market, the cost performance of A-Shares has been significantly improved, the problem of structural overvaluation has also been alleviated, and the market is expected to gradually obtain support at the valuation level. We maintain our early judgment. Under the background of relatively friendly policies, investors do not need to be overly pessimistic. The rapid correction of the market in the short term will bring investors a better layout time point. In the direction, the short-term "steady growth" style may continue. With the stabilization of economic data and the continuous introduction of policy rules, the relevant sectors may still have phased excess returns. After the correction of growth style, we can also pay attention to the investment opportunities in which some high-quality stocks are killed by mistake or low-level layout.
