After the closing of A-Shares on the 10th, the central bank made good profits! Credit data far exceeded expectations
RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan in January
social finance increased by 6.17 trillion yuan in January
On February 10, the central bank released the financial statistics and social financing scale increment statistics report in January 2022. Specifically:
First, broad money increased by 9.8%
At the end of January, the balance of broad money (M2) was 243.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 61.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. Excluding the influence of the wrong timing factor ① of the Spring Festival, M1 increased by about 2% year-on-year. The balance of money in circulation (M0) was 10.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%. The net cash invested in the month was 1.54 trillion yuan.
In February and January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan
At the end of January, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 202.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%. At the end of the month, the balance of RMB loans was 196.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, 0.1 and 1.2 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively.
In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, a monthly statistical high, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year. In terms of sub sectors, household loans increased by 843 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 100.6 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 742.4 billion yuan; Loans to enterprises (Institutions) increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 2.1 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 178.8 billion yuan; Loans from non banking financial institutions decreased by 141.7 billion yuan.
At the end of January, the balance of foreign currency loans was $930.8 billion, an increase of 2% year-on-year. In January, foreign currency loans increased by US $18.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of US $26.9 billion.
In March and January, RMB deposits increased by 3.83 trillion yuan
At the end of January, the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits was 242.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. At the end of the month, the balance of RMB deposits was 236.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, 0.1 and 1.2 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively.
In January, RMB deposits increased by 3.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 262.7 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, household deposits increased by 5.41 trillion yuan, deposits of non-financial enterprises decreased by 1.4 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 584.9 billion yuan, and deposits of non banking financial institutions decreased by 183.6 billion yuan.
At the end of January, the balance of foreign currency deposits was US $1.02 trillion, an increase of 9% year-on-year. In January, foreign currency deposits increased by US $27.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of US $22.8 billion.
4. Statistical report on the stock of social financing scale in January
According to preliminary statistics, the increment of social financing scale in January 2022 was 6.17 trillion yuan, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year.
Among them, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, a monthly statistical high, an increase of 380.6 billion yuan year-on-year; Foreign currency loans to the real economy increased by 103.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7 billion yuan; Entrusted loans increased by 42.8 billion yuan, an increase of 33.7 billion yuan year-on-year; Trust loans decreased by 68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.2 billion yuan; Undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 473.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.1 billion yuan; The net financing of corporate bonds was 579.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 188.2 billion yuan; The net financing of government bonds was 602.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 358.9 billion yuan; Domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises was 143.9 billion yuan, an increase of 44.8 billion yuan year-on-year.
Statistical report on the stock of social financing scale in May and January
According to preliminary statistics, the stock of social financing scale at the end of January 2022 was 320.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%.
Among them, the balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 195.71 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%; The balance of foreign currency loans to the real economy was 2.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year; The balance of entrusted loans was 10.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%; The balance of trust loans was 31.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.9%; The balance of undiscounted bank acceptance bills was 3.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%; The balance of corporate bonds was 30.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%; The balance of government bonds was 53.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%; The domestic stock balance of non-financial enterprises was 9.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%.
In terms of structure, the balance of RMB loans to the real economy at the end of January accounted for 61.1% of the stock of social financing scale in the same period, 0.6 percentage points higher than that of the same period; The balance of foreign currency loans to the real economy converted into RMB accounted for 0.7%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year; The balance of entrusted loans accounted for 3.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4 percentage points; The balance of trust loans accounted for 1.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9 percentage points; The balance of undiscounted bank acceptance bills accounted for 1.1%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year; The balance of corporate bonds accounted for 9.5%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year; The balance of government bonds was 16.8 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year; The domestic stock balance of non-financial enterprises accounted for 3%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year.
the teachers of Huatai solid income team sorted out a simplified version.
The central bank released financial data for January 2022:
(1) the new RMB loan is 3980 billion yuan, and the market is expected to be 3760 billion yuan, compared with the previous value of 1130 billion yuan.
(2) the scale of social financing is 6170 billion yuan, the market is expected to be 5440 billion yuan, and the previous value is 2368.2 billion yuan.
(3) m2 was 9.8% year-on-year, the market expectation was 9.4%, and the previous value was 9.0%; M1 was - 1.9% year-on-year (2% year-on-year excluding the influence of the wrong time of the Spring Festival), and the former value was 3.5%; M0 was 18.5% year-on-year.
① credit:
In January, RMB loans increased by 3980 billion yuan, an increase of 394.4 billion year-on-year. Among them, the medium and long-term accounted for 71.4%, an increase of 10 percentage points over the previous month and a decrease of 12 percentage points over the same period last year.
Breakdown:
New loans to non-financial enterprises increased by more than RMB 338.1 billion year-on-year.
Among them, short-term loans and medium - and long-term loans increased by 1010 billion yuan and 2100 billion yuan respectively, and corporate bill financing increased by 178.8 billion yuan, an increase of 4345 billion yuan, 600 billion yuan and 319.3 billion yuan respectively year-on-year.
(2) resident loans increased by 843 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 427 billion yuan.
Among them, short-term loans and medium and long-term loans increased by 100.6 billion yuan and 742.4 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 227.2 billion yuan and 202.4 billion yuan respectively.
(3) loans from non bank financial institutions increased by - 141.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.5 billion yuan.
② Social Finance:
In January, the scale of social financing was 6170 billion yuan, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year.
The stock of social finance was 320.1 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month.
Breakdown:
(1) the new credit of social finance increased by 4303.1 billion yuan, an increase of 373.9 billion yuan year-on-year;
(4.48 billion yuan of non-standard financing, an increase of more than 32.9 billion yuan year-on-year;
(3) corporate bond financing was 579.9 billion yuan, an increase of 188.2 billion yuan year-on-year;
(4) corporate stock financing was 143.9 billion yuan, an increase of 44.8 billion yuan year-on-year;
(5) government bond financing was 602.6 billion yuan, an increase of 358.9 billion yuan year-on-year.
③ currency and deposit:
In January, M2 was 9.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the previous month; M1 was - 1.9% year-on-year, down 5.4 percentage points from the previous month; M0 was 18.5% year-on-year. The difference between M1 and M2 scissors was further narrowed compared with the previous month. In January, new deposits increased by 3830 billion yuan, an increase of 262.7 billion yuan year-on-year.
Breakdown:
(1) resident deposits were 5410 billion yuan, an increase of 3930 billion yuan year-on-year;
(2) deposits from non-financial enterprises were - 1400 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23484 billion yuan;
(3) deposits from non bank financial institutions were - 183.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 71.6 billion yuan;
(4) the fiscal deposit was 584.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 585.1 billion yuan
how to view the central bank data
according to the analysis of BOC investment, credit hit a record high in January. The government's policy intention to promote stable credit growth is obvious, which helps to help the market enhance its expectations for the economy and benefit China's capital market. However, compared with last year, most of the growth came from bills and short-term loans, indicating that the demand of the real economy is still relatively weak. We expect that the government will continue to introduce stimulus policies in the coming months, including reducing reserve requirements and interest rates. However, stable growth cannot rely solely on monetary policy. The key to the future is to see the strength of fiscal policy and the adjustment of real estate market policy.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : nothing can't be loosened, it's not incompetent!
1. The financial data are really good.
In January, social finance reached 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 1 trillion yuan year-on-year. This range is indeed higher than expected. The stock of social finance has risen to 10.5% year-on-year. We calculated that the quarter on quarter growth rate has reached more than 11%. RMB loans reached 3.98 trillion, an increase of 400 billion over the same period last year. The growth rate of M2 jumped to 9.8%. Although the growth rate of M1 turned negative, it was mainly related to the money paid by enterprises before the Spring Festival, which was caused by the dislocation of the Spring Festival.
2. The lack of endogenous power is also a fact.
Structurally speaking, the endogenous financing needs of entities are indeed relatively weak, which is an objective fact. For example, the substantial negative year-on-year growth of residents' financing reflects that the data of the real estate market in the first half of the year may be ugly, including the data of sales and investment. In enterprise financing, although bill financing has been compressed, bills and short-term loans have still increased significantly, which also reflects the lack of endogenous financing demand.
3. But these are not important.
In fact, at the beginning of each round of big easing, the endogenous power of the economy is insufficient, and there is often the problem of high proportion of short-term loans. But long money and short money are RMB, so you can buy things. As long as we continue to relax, we will always see an improvement in the economy and the financing structure. So first do the amount of financing, first spread the money, if not enough, keep spreading, and you will always see the effect.
4. There's nothing you can't relax. Don't be too pessimistic.
In addition to the monetary and credit policy, it is expected that the policy of real estate will also be fully relaxed, including resident financing, three red lines and so on. Under the pressure of the economy, unless there is no growth, can we not? impossible. Policies with tightening effect will not be promoted, such as various tax increases worried by the market; Those that can stabilize growth will be pushed forward as soon as possible, such as real estate and infrastructure will continue to relax. Therefore, there is no need to be too pessimistic. Look at those economies that have released water. In addition to the external devaluation of the currency, the internal asset price performance is good. Now the exchange rate is so high that the interest rate has not been reduced to 0. It's not that there is no space and tools
Letter from public offering to investors:
cherish the 2800 point gem and the 3400 point Shanghai index
Cinda Australia said in a letter to investors today that at present, there is no need to worry too much about the overall market and should cherish the gem below 2800 points and the Shanghai composite index below 3400 points. For the recent market adjustment, Cinda Aoyin Fund believes that this is a concentrated vent of the market's short-term irrational emotions. It is expected that there is little possibility of a sharp decline in the A-share market this year, so we should actively grasp structural investment opportunities.
In addition, as the earliest gold digger of "Ning portfolio", Yao Zhipeng, the growth style investment director of Harvest Fund, known as the "leader of new energy", has a direct dialogue with investors through a new year letter of more than 2000 words, sincerely analyze themselves, interpret the market and share views, in order to help investors make decisions and go through the most turbulent "opening moment" of the market.
Although the current fluctuations will indeed make it more difficult to hold for a long time, Yao Zhipeng still encourages investors to "not come because of the reputation of the peak, not turn around for the trough" and "don't game the net value of the year, but finally lose the times".
