After the opening of the Spring Festival, more than 80% of the stocks rose, and the Shanghai stock index rose for three consecutive days. During this period, although the market once had a sharp shock, the overall performance was commendable. Blue chips replaced track stocks, with a strong trend. Some experts believe that the period from the Spring Festival to the two sessions may be a rebound window period.
more than 80% of stocks rose
On February 9, the A-share market rose again, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.79%. So far, since the opening of the market after the festival, the Shanghai stock index has achieved three consecutive positives, with a cumulative increase of 3.53%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index have increased by 1.53% and 1.93% respectively. Statistics show that more than 4000 stocks rose in the A-share market after the festival, accounting for more than 80%, and the market performance was better than expected.
However, it was not plain sailing. The market once fluctuated sharply, and the differentiation between different indexes was more obvious. The gem index fell more than 4% in the session on February 8, and fell 0.87% after the festival.
This is also reflected in the obvious differentiation between sectors. After the festival, Chinese prefix stocks led the rise. For example, China Mobile A shares with a market value of trillions achieved three consecutive positives and closed at the limit yesterday. Coal, steel, oil and other sectors performed well. The new energy sector was once significantly adjusted.
GUI Haoming, a senior market person, pointed out that the changes in the market after the festival, including the simultaneous rise of blue chip stocks and the adjustment of track stocks, as well as the performance differentiation of technology stocks and infrastructure stocks, had appeared before the festival. The valuation of track stocks is high after a continuous sharp rise, and the growth needs to be verified by high performance growth. In addition, relevant parties proposed that the infrastructure should be moderately advanced, and the performance of infrastructure stocks was still good.
Liu Chenming, chief strategist of Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) told the securities times that under the unfavorable start of January this year, the market has high expectations for the rebound after the festival; However, this week, the rebound of growth stocks was slightly lower than expected, and the performance of heavy institutional stocks was poor. Under the condition of large financial support, the market continued to shrink, and the funds were still hovering in the field of undervaluation, indicating that the overall confidence of the market was still insufficient.
rebound window period or open
Although there was a large shock in the post holiday market, all funds are relatively stable at present. From the perspective of northward funds, the net buying trend was regained after the festival, with a cumulative net buying of more than 5 billion yuan in three trading days.
In an interview with the securities times, Chen Guo, chief strategy officer, pointed out that the overall risk appetite of the market is low, and there is still some uncertainty in the follow-up trend of US bond interest rate, which suppresses the composition stage of high valuation sectors, so the direction of steady growth benefits will stabilize and rebound first. If the growth of the first quarterly report can exceed expectations, growth stocks will rebound later, Generally speaking, there is a rebound window period from the Spring Festival to the two sessions.
Liu Chenming believes that the return of risk appetite is a necessary condition for the subsequent recovery of market profit-making effect. The biggest concern of the current market is the effect of steady growth. The effect of steady growth is most intuitively reflected in credit, that is, the financing preference of the real economy. Historical data also show that the credit cycle directly determines the direction of A-share valuation. On the one hand, the credit cycle determines the current residual liquidity; On the other hand, the credit cycle directly affects the profit expectation of enterprises.
Liu Chenming believes that at present, the market is still in the signal stage of wide currency. Once credit begins to expand, systemic risk concerns are eliminated and market confidence returns, it is expected to usher in a wave of considerable rising opportunities. In terms of industries, there are two main directions to directly benefit from broad credit. One is the direction of emerging industries jointly supported by policies and prosperity, especially the new infrastructure construction focused on special bonds, such as 5g application, Internet of things and new energy industry chain; The second is the direction related to steady growth and improving people's livelihood, such as central enterprises with financing advantages, state-owned real estate enterprises, transportation and water conservancy projects.
GUI Haoming believes that it is still difficult to determine the style orientation of the market this year. He is more inclined to interpret the market in a relatively balanced manner, with each sector rising in turn. He pointed out that since this year, the market has been under great adjustment pressure, but the market can pull back at every critical moment, indicating that the market is full of resilience.
