Today (February 10), after the three major A-share indexes opened slightly higher, they fell sharply and weakened. The Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index failed to recover, showing a pulse downward pattern. However, the Shanghai index has been repeated in the shock, with an obvious anti decline trend. The rise and fall of the industry and concept sectors are different, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
From the perspective of disk, the "unpopular" sectors such as civil explosion, tourism, agriculture and environmental protection have become "upstarts". In terms of civil explosive sector, Poly Union Chemical Holding Group Co.Ltd(002037) recorded 7 consecutive sectors, Shanxi Huhua Group Co.Ltd(003002) limit, Hunan Nanling Industry Explosive Material Co.Ltd(002096) , Jiangxi Guotai Group Co.Ltd(603977) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Shanxi Tond Chemical Co.Ltd(002360) and so on; In terms of tourism sector, Caesar's tourism rose by the limit, Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) , Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Anhui Jiuhuashan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(603199) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Xi'An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) , Tibet Tourism Co.Ltd(600749) and so on.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pointed out that in view of the current hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve and the strong expectation of overseas monetary policy contraction, the global risk assets will still be disturbed before the landing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March. It is expected that A-Shares are still dominated by structural market. It is suggested to treat this round of spring market rationally.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] scenic spots and tourism
Dongguan Securities said that the proportion of short distance travel in the spring festival tourism market was further increased, the passenger flow of Spring Festival transportation increased significantly, and the impact of the epidemic was gradually reduced. Guided by the 14th five year plan, 2022 is expected to be the year of tourism recovery. It is suggested to pay careful attention to the leading outbound tourists Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) benefiting from the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism; Recommended franchisees account for a relatively high proportion of chain hotel leaders Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) with stable performance, and artificial scenic spot leaders Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) with large performance flexibility. They are expected to benefit from Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) of the Winter Olympic effect in the short term.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that judging from the repeated regional epidemics in China, it is suggested to grasp the phased market. China's long-term trend will continue to be firm in clearing cases, strictly preventing overseas imports, accelerating vaccination and research and development of multiple vaccines, and realizing mass immunization as soon as possible. During the Spring Festival, the Winter Olympic Games were held in Zhangjiakou, Beijing. The government continued to take strict covid-19 prevention and control measures, and the restrictions on international flights were extended to at least the first half of this year. China's tourism industry continued to circulate internally, and the flow of outbound tourists continued to be transformed into Chinese tourism. China's tourism industry does not change the recovery trend, and the recovery process is repeatedly disturbed with the possible local epidemic. During this period, with theme investment and hot investment hotspots, the fundamentals of Companies in the industry showed continuous repair. It is suggested to pay attention to: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) .
In addition, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) mentioned that the tourism market recovered weakly during the Spring Festival holiday, and the overall consumer expenditure of residents maintained a steady growth. According to the data of the Ministry of culture, tourism and tourism, 137 million people traveled in China in the first three days of the holiday, which recovered to 71.5% in the same period of the Spring Festival in 2019 according to a comparable standard. The recovery rate was weak compared with 70% in the golden week of November 2021. This was mainly due to the repeated epidemic in many parts of the country since January 2022, and the travel of provinces and cities such as Beijing and Zhejiang was limited. Population mobility has increased, and the overall consumption expenditure of residents is expected to maintain a steady growth. According to Netcom data, in the five days before the Spring Festival holiday in 2022, the Netcom platform handled 6.236 billion inter agency online payment transactions, with an amount of 4.20 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% and 11.6%. []
[Theme 2] agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) mentioned that for the pig sector, it is still in a very good configuration window period. The first half of the year is the key period to win excess returns. The fertile sows have been falling continuously since July 2021, in which they have fallen more than expected from October to November 2021. The downward trend of fertile sows is very clear. From historical experience, fertile sows have been in a downward relay, In the follow-up, with the intensification of breeding losses and the continuous downturn of column supplement, the de urbanization will be intensified. The decline of fertile sows every month will be catalyzed by the pig sector. The pig price is in the process of the second bottom of the w bottom. At present, the downward space of the pig price is very limited. Factors such as the change of the marketing rhythm of short-term farmers will affect the fluctuation of the pig price. Even if there is a periodic rebound, as long as the loss inventory is cleared, it will continue. In the second half of the year, it is necessary to verify the pig price, but it is a safe period for the first half of the year. Despite the recent rebound in the pig sector, the current valuation of the sector, especially the leader, is still at the bottom, with sufficient margin of safety.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said that 1) pigs: 2022 is the best stage to layout the pig sector in advance, and the pig cycle will probably reverse the market in 2023. At the same time, meat products benefit from the decline in pig prices, and the profit is expected to be further improved in 2022. Recommendations: Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) , COFCO jiajiakang, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) etc; Attention: Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , Longda food, etc. 2) Yellow feather chicken: the stock of parents in production is at the lowest level in three years, and the trend of elimination is still continuing. It is expected that the profit of yellow chicken breeding will improve in 2022. It is recommended that high-quality breeding targets: Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) . 3) White feather chicken: the whole industrial chain is sinking towards food deep processing. It is suggested to pay attention to the bottom: Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) , Shandong Xiantan Co.Ltd(002746) .
In addition, the agency further analyzed that GM landed on schedule and was optimistic about the resonance between sector cycle and growth. From the perspective of cycle, as the post grain price cycle, the seed industry will be in the release channel of performance in the next two years; The improvement of supply and demand structure of corn seeds in China is also expected to usher in the reversal of inventory cycle. The accelerated landing of genetically modified products will bring changes in variety generation to the industry, and the leading enterprises will usher in a high-speed growth stage of rising prices and increasing market share. Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) are recommended. []
[Theme 3] environmental protection
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned that the development of China's carbon market is viewed against the EU: the two core mechanisms are taking shape, the carbon price is rising for a long time, and CCER is bullish for a short time. For the resumption of the EU carbon market, the total amount control and MSR mechanism are the key to the carbon price balance. The development of China's carbon market is similar to that of the EU, and has the prototype of the total amount control market regulation mechanism. At present, the transaction scale and covering industries have large room to improve, the carbon price is far lower than overseas, the double carbon target time is tight, the task is heavy, the total amount tightening drives the carbon price to rise for a long time, and the carbon market releases the demand of CCER, Previously, the recorded emission reduction of CCER in China totaled more than 50 million tons, which took four years. We expect to basically fulfill the contract, and the approval policy is expected to restart. We expect the supply scarcity price of CCER to rise in the near future.
Carbon neutralization investment framework and environmental protection industry mapping: build an investment framework from front-end energy substitution, middle-end energy conservation and emission reduction and back-end recycling, and provide effective institutional support for carbon trading. From the perspective of environmental protection, 1) energy substitution: adjust the front-end energy structure, and pay attention to the substitution demand of sanitation new energy equipment and renewable energy (waste incineration, etc.). 2) Energy conservation and emission reduction: promote industrial transformation in the middle end and pay attention to energy conservation management & Application of emission reduction equipment. 3) Recycling: promote the recycling of renewable resources such as waste classification, waste household appliances / cars and hazardous waste recycling. 4) Environmental consultation: the improvement of environmental management promotes the expansion of the demand for environmental consultation. 5) Carbon trading: encourage the development of CCER projects such as renewable energy (waste incineration / biomass utilization), methane utilization (sewage treatment / biogas utilization), forestry carbon sequestration, etc.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that the introduction of heavy policies has accelerated the construction of urban environmental infrastructure. On February 9, 2022, the general office of the State Council forwarded the guiding opinions on accelerating the construction of urban environmental infrastructure (hereinafter referred to as the "guiding opinions") issued by the national development and Reform Commission and other departments. The main objectives of 2025 include the disposal of sewage, domestic waste, hazardous waste and medical waste, and put forward to improve the charging system and subdivide the areas where the price can be adjusted by the market, Determine the price and charging standard according to the market-oriented method. The agency made further analysis, the valuation bottomed out and paid attention to stable operating assets. We will strengthen the guidance of urban infrastructure reform and technological barriers, and help enterprises strengthen their investment and technological barriers. []
[theme 4] civil explosion
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) it is estimated that the annual consumption of traditional detonators in the market is about 1 ~ 1.2 billion. Assuming that the electronic detonators will penetrate 100% in the future, the market space of electronic detonators will reach 15 ~ 18 billion yuan according to the average price of 15 yuan.
The research report points out that the current application of electronic detonators is concentrated in mining and blasting fields such as coal and mines. Driven by policies in the next few years, it is expected to replace the application fields of ordinary detonators. Focus on Poly Union Chemical Holding Group Co.Ltd(002037) , Shanxi Huhua Group Co.Ltd(003002) , Jiangxi Guotai Group Co.Ltd(603977) , Guangdong Hongda, Hunan Nanling Industry Explosive Material Co.Ltd(002096) , Shenzhen King Explorer Science And Technology Corporation(002917) , Hubei Kailong Chemical Group Co.Ltd(002783) , etc.
According to the analysis of toubao Research Institute, the market scale of China's civil blasting equipment industry is expected to gradually resume development and further improve. Under the background of the recovery of downstream ore demand, the output value of China's civil blasting equipment industry will continue to increase.
