Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : Pig cycle reversal, ready to accelerate elasticity, optimistic about small-scale breeding target
Livestock and poultry chain: the reversal of pig cycle is accelerating, and the elasticity is optimistic about the target of small-scale breeding. 1) Pigs: pig prices have continued to decline since January. It is expected that they will maintain a downward trend after the Spring Festival and further catalyze the sector. 2022 is the best stage to lay out the pig sector in advance, and the pig cycle will probably reverse the market in 2023. At the same time, meat products benefit from the decline in pig prices, and the profit is expected to be further improved in 2022. Recommendations: Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) , COFCO jiajiakang, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) etc; Attention: Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , Longda food, etc.
2) yellow feather chicken: the stock of parents in production is at the lowest level in three years, and the trend of elimination is still continuing. It is expected that the profit of yellow chicken breeding will improve in 2022. It is recommended that high-quality breeding targets: Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) .
3) white feather chicken: the whole industrial chain is sinking towards food deep processing. It is suggested to pay attention to the bottom: Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding Co.Ltd(002458) , Shandong Xiantan Co.Ltd(002746) .
Planting chain: genetically modified products are landed as scheduled, and we are optimistic about the resonance between sector cycle and growth. From the perspective of cycle, as the post grain price cycle, the seed industry will be in the release channel of performance in the next two years; The improvement of supply and demand structure of corn seeds in China is also expected to usher in the reversal of inventory cycle. The accelerated landing of genetically modified products will bring changes in variety generation to the industry, and the leading enterprises will usher in a high-speed growth stage of rising prices and increasing market share. Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) are recommended. []
Dongguan Securities: pig breeding companies further increase their losses or accelerate the bottom of the pig cycle
It is suggested to actively grasp the upward inflection point of pig cycle. Looking forward to 2022, if the production capacity of fertile sows continues to be reduced, combined with the fact that pigs lag behind the production capacity of fertile sows for 10 months, the industry is expected to usher in an inflection point around the third quarter. Considering that the peak consumption season in the fourth quarter of 2021 makes the pig price rebound to a certain extent, or affects the length of the pig cycle to a certain extent. If the follow-up pig price drops, the loss range of pig breeding companies will further increase, or accelerate the bottoming process of pig cycle. In the follow-up, we need to continue to pay attention to the important data such as the stock of fertile sows and the performance of pig enterprises, and look for appropriate layout opportunities. In terms of subject matter, we can focus on Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) in the aquaculture sector. []
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : the elimination of production capacity is unstoppable! Reverse expectations continue to strengthen and continue to recommend pig breeding sector
Pig breeding: the elimination of production capacity is unstoppable, the reversal expectation is continuously strengthened, and the pig breeding sector is continuously recommended. At the darkest hour of the pig cycle, the strength is reflected in every detail. The bottom outline has gradually become clear. In 2021, the industry has experienced stages such as significantly lower than expected pig prices, broken capital chain of inefficient production capacity, slowdown of capital expenditure, de production of sows, and the start of multi-dimensional financing. We still firmly believe that the de production of production capacity is unstoppable, Reversal expectations will continue to strengthen. This is also the core logic that we are optimistic about the large breeding sector.
Planting industry: grain prices fluctuated at a high level, and the protection of intellectual property rights in the seed industry was strengthened. Document No. 1 is approaching, focusing on thematic opportunities. China needs food security, and the way of food security needs the revitalization of the seed industry. This macro logic will run through the next few years and pay attention to the potential catalysis such as document No. 1; In terms of growth, we will focus on the improvement of the competitive environment for genetically modified and improved varieties, help leading companies to open up growth in terms of total amount and pattern, and continue to recommend the genetically modified corn seed industry.
In terms of investment suggestions, the allocation of breeding is at the right time, and pigs and seed industry are recommended; The live pig sector recommends Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , shuangbang, Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) and other benefits: Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) ; Recommended planting chain corn seed industry targets: Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) ; Three faucets Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) are recommended.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) : at present, the pig sector is in a very good configuration window period. The first half of the year is the key period to win excess returns
For the live pig sector, it is still in a very good configuration window period. The first half of the year is the key period to win excess returns. The fertile sows have been falling continuously since July 2021, among which they have fallen more than expected from October to November 2021. The downward trend of fertile sows is very clear. From historical experience, fertile sows have been in a downward relay, In the follow-up, with the intensification of breeding losses and the continuous downturn of column supplement, the de urbanization will be intensified. The decline of fertile sows every month will be catalyzed by the pig sector. The pig price is in the process of the second bottom of the w bottom. At present, the downward space of the pig price is very limited. Factors such as the change of the marketing rhythm of short-term farmers will affect the fluctuation of the pig price. Even if there is a periodic rebound, as long as the loss inventory is cleared, it will continue. In the second half of the year, it is necessary to verify the pig price, but it is a safe period for the first half of the year. Despite the recent rebound in the pig sector, the current valuation of the sector, especially the leader, is still at the bottom, with sufficient margin of safety. Therefore, at present, the pig sector continues to be recommended, focusing on the leading Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , followed by the second tier pig enterprises New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) . []
The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities: after the Spring Festival, the industry may accelerate the reduction of production capacity and continue to be optimistic about the pig breeding sector
For the breeding industry chain, 1) pig breeding: after the festival, the industry may accelerate the reduction of production capacity, continue to be optimistic about the pig breeding sector, and pay attention to the cost leading enterprises with safe operation and reasonable valuation. During the Spring Festival, the price of pigs is low. It is expected that after the festival, as consumer demand weakens, pig prices may fall. According to official data, the speed of capacity removal in the industry has slowed down. It is expected that after the festival, with the decline of pig prices, the speed of capacity elimination will accelerate. We firmly believe that the production capacity of the industry will reach the bottom in the third quarter, and the pig price will enter the channel of cyclical rise at that time. At present, the market value of the vast majority of pig enterprises is lower than the historical average, and the valuation has a certain margin of safety, maintaining the positive rating of the sector. In terms of individual stocks, focus on Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) with leading cost and Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) with obvious improvement in production indicators. 2) Dynamic insurance: on the eve of the new cycle, the prosperity of pig vaccine was under pressure in the short term, but the static PE was at the bottom of history, the safety margin of valuation was high, and the optimistic rating was maintained. The key recommendation of individual stocks is Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) with reasonable valuation and significant growth.
For the seed industry, the promotion of genetically modified products is imminent, continue to be optimistic about the seed industry, and focus on recommending high-quality seed industry leaders. Since the second half of 2021, transgenic policies have been intensively introduced in the seed industry. It is expected that with the official implementation of the policy, genetically modified corn and soybean seed products will gradually be mass-produced and listed. Affected by the development of transgenic technology, the entry threshold of the industry will be significantly raised, which is not conducive to the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. The leading enterprises are expected to gain more market share in the future because they have the first mover advantage in transgenic R & D and product layout. We believe that under the influence of the development of genetically modified products, the competition pattern of the industry is expected to accelerate the optimization and maintain the industry's optimistic rating, especially the investment opportunities of corn seed industry with high prosperity. In terms of individual stocks, focus on Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) with obvious advantages in germplasm resources and variety combination, and Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) with leading advantages in transgenic R & D and variety layout. Pay attention to Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) . []
Hualong Securities: consumption off-season + continuous release of production capacity 2022q2-q3 pig price or welcome the second bottom
Bottom or secondary grinding, rebound layout is at the right time. This round of pig cycle is relatively special. The outbreak of non plague at the beginning of the year made 2021h1 appear centralized fence pressing, resulting in large pigs and fat pigs being forced out of the market, oversupply of pork, plus the rise of corn price, resulting in the continuous rise of feed cost and loss of pig breeding. Although the price of pigs has rebounded since the fourth quarter due to the recovery of the demand side and the reluctance to sell at the breeding side, it is still in the downward channel due to the incomplete removal of production capacity due to the relatively rich profits in the early stage. We expect that 2021q4 column supplement + 2022q2 consumption off-season + continuous release of production capacity, and 2022q2-q3 pig price may meet the second bottom. []
Guosheng Securities: the era of genetically modified commercialization may accelerate, and pay attention to the long-term layout opportunities of the seed industry
The era of genetically modified commercialization may accelerate, and pay attention to the long-term layout opportunities of the seed industry. The emphasis on food security continued to rise, and the action plan for the revitalization of seed industry was adopted in July 2021; In November 2021, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas issued the decision of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas on amending some seed industry regulations (Draft for comments), adding relevant rules on the approval of genetically modified crop varieties; On December 26, China's rural work conference once again proposed "vigorously promoting seed sources and other key agricultural core technologies". As an important prerequisite for food security, seed industry security has clear industrial policy direction, the expansion space of transgenic breeding can be expected, and the leader of breeding technology advantage is expected to benefit. It is suggested to pay attention to: Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) . []
Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) : commercialization of genetically modified organisms or promotion of industry ceiling reconstruction + concentration improvement
The policy continues to be favorable, the protection of variety rights is strengthened, and the market share of the leading seed industry is expected to increase. Considering the high grain price + the bottoming out of corn seed inventory, the commercialization of genetically modified crops or the promotion of industry ceiling reconstruction + concentration, the recent high international grain price and China's policy catalysis, we believe that the seed industry sector has entered a high business cycle with both volume and price, and the subsequent policies will continue to catalyze the market fermentation of the sector. It is recommended to actively allocate, with emphasis on Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) 、 Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) 。 []
