Today (February 10), the differentiation pattern of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reappeared. The three major A-share indexes opened slightly higher in the morning. With the Chinese prefix protection led by infrastructure construction, the Shanghai index maintained a narrow range throughout the day, and finally closed up slightly; The gem and Shenzhen Component Index fluctuated significantly downward, and finally the green market closed. Among them, the gem index fell nearly 2%, and the trend was relatively fierce. From the disk point of view, tourism, agriculture, environmental protection, civil explosion and other "unpopular" sectors rose, coal stocks also rose at the end of the day, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
In this regard, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned that the index has little upward space in the short term, and the value and growth on the disk may be repeated, but the logic of each other's operation is different, one is steady growth, the other is oversold rebound. Before the market stabilizes effectively, it is still difficult to participate in the market. In terms of operation, it is suggested to light the index and focus on individual stocks and try to avoid crowded track themes.
At the same time, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that from the historical situation, the profit expectation error of the stable growth industry in the general sense is indeed significantly smaller. The consumer industries represented by food and beverage, household appliances and medicine and the stable growth related industries represented by building materials and construction may have higher profit certainty. Considering the pressure on the overall profit growth in 2022, we believe that the performance growth of the stable growth sector deserves more attention, especially the two main lines of consumption and stable growth.
sector:
I. coal
Huabao securities mentioned that China's demand for coking coal is expected to decrease by 3% in 2022, and the output of coking coal will increase by about 4 million tons. The overall supply and demand of overseas coking coal is in tight balance. Considering that the import of coking coal is an important factor in adjusting the supply and that coking coal has little impact on people's livelihood, we tend to think that on the supply side, the increase of Mongolia's import will reduce the total import from other regions to a certain extent, and the increase of overseas import is generally cautious. According to the overall calculation, the tight situation of coking coal supply and demand will be alleviated and the supply and demand will be balanced in 2022. Based on 2022, the supply and demand of coking coal is in balance as a whole. It is estimated that the central price of Mysteel China coking coal price index is 1500 yuan / ton, and the central price of Xinhua Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) long-term association price index is 1200 yuan / ton.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) believes that in the medium and long term, under the background of lack of planned investment, the constraints on the coal supply side are strong. Under the background of small annual growth in demand, coal will be a scarce resource in the next few years, and the stock capacity or high profits. The increase of the benchmark price of the annual long-term association also ensures the ability of the industry to continue to make high profits. Under the dual carbon goal, Coal enterprises urgently need transformation. Power investment energy, Yankuang, Shenhua, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) and other major forces are in the direction of new energy operation and hydrogen energy. The coal industry has the advantages of strong cash flow and rich land resources in new energy operation, and has the ability and desire, The transformation in the direction of new energy is conducive to improving the valuation level of the overall sector (the current PE valuation is 5-6 times). Coal assets need to be repriced and continue to be optimistic about the investment value of the sector.
The agency further mentioned that the thermal coal stocks proposed to pay attention to: Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , power investment and energy, Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
In addition, Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that in the medium and long term, the space for new capacity is limited, the nuclear growth potential of stock capacity has been fully tapped, the coal supply is expected to peak ahead of demand, support the operation of coal prices at a high level, and the coal enterprises may usher in an era of sustained high profitability. We expect the performance of coal enterprises to return to a benign and stable release, which is expected to catalyze the valuation repair. At the same time, we recommend power investment energy, Yankuang energy and Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) as the targets of new energy transformation, and are optimistic about the transformation and growth potential of coal enterprises under the support of high performance.
II. Infrastructure
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that recently, the central government mentioned the new special debt, focusing on water conservancy, transportation, municipal infrastructure construction, affordable housing projects and other fields. The Ministry of water resources mentioned the implementation of major projects of the national water network. We expect the construction of underground pipe network and sponge city to bring sustainable increment during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The completion end of the real estate remained resilient, but the new construction and sales remained weak. In terms of real estate, the easing signal has been gradually released, and the bottom of the policy has been found. We expect that the financing end of subsequent real estate enterprises and consumers is expected to be slightly relaxed. In addition, accelerating the construction of affordable rental housing during the 14th Five Year Plan period will bring some increment. Previously, the valuation of the decoration and building materials sector has been in the lower position of the historical center due to the slowdown in demand, the rise of raw materials and cash flow pressure. With the relaxation of expectations on the edge of real estate, the decline of high raw material costs, and the gradual release of bad debt provision and cash flow risk expectations, the overall sector is expected to usher in performance and valuation repair.
According to China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities, the building materials industry will mainly focus on the following investment directions in 2022: (1) the leading consumer building materials enterprises benefiting from the improvement of industry concentration: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , ad shares. (2) Glass fiber faucet benefiting from the increase of wind power demand: China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) . (3) Glass faucets with multi business layout Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) . (4) Regional leaders of cement industry Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) benefiting from the recovery of infrastructure investment. (5) The production capacity of high-purity quartz sand is Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) . (6) Benefiting from the increased demand for ceramic fibers Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) .
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) pointed out that there are two main lines for investment in the construction industry in 2022 - infrastructure development, new energy infrastructure and fabricated buildings, steel structure. It is suggested to pay attention to the central enterprises of traditional buildings: 1) optimize the central enterprises of new energy infrastructure: China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) . The world's top 2 energy and power construction enterprises have deeply benefited from the large-scale construction of new energy under the "double carbon" strategy. The performance of the "14th five year plan" is high, and the growth is determined to be high. The value of the installed assets of wind and solar power generation in hand is expected to be revalued.
2) optional building steel structure track Faucet: Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) . Under the "double carbon 1 + n" policy system, fabricated steel structure has an advantageous development pattern with lower carbon emission intensity. In 2022, government investment in infrastructure, public construction and other fields is expected to make great efforts. As a leading enterprise in the two major subsidiaries of steel structure manufacturing and Engineering in China, β+α Resonance, optimistic about the performance of Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) and Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) in 2022.
3) pay attention to traditional infrastructure central enterprises: China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) . During the 12th Five Year Plan period and the 13th Five Year Plan period, China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) and other traditional "iron public base" construction central enterprises strategically arranged "big municipal" and "big city construction", landed in cities and realized business structure adjustment and transformation. The above-mentioned enterprises are expected to benefit from the development of urban agglomeration and urban internal infrastructure.
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