Recently, a number of photovoltaic enterprises released performance forecasts for 2021. The upstream and downstream profits of the photovoltaic industry showed differentiation in 2021. The overall profits of silicon material and silicon wafer enterprises were good, nearly 70% of the module enterprises had performance losses in advance, and the profitability gap between the head enterprises and the second and third tier enterprises showed a widening trend.
The data show that since this year, the total bidding of photovoltaic modules of major groups has exceeded 39gw. With the bidding of new production capacity carried out one after another, the demand for photovoltaic modules is expected to continue to grow.
upstream and downstream profit differentiation
As of the closing on February 9, a total of 41 listed companies in the A-share photovoltaic concept sector disclosed the performance forecast of 2021. Among them, 31 companies expect the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies to increase year-on-year in 2021, accounting for 76%.
Silicon material leader Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) is expected to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 8-8.5 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 122% - 136%. The company said that in 2021, benefiting from the growth of downstream demand, the supply of high-purity crystalline silicon products was in short supply, the market price increased significantly year-on-year, the company's high-purity crystalline silicon capacity continued to operate at full capacity, the production and sales volume increased year-on-year, various production indicators were further optimized, and the profit increased significantly. At the same time, the company's Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery and feed business segments operated steadily and maintained strong market competitiveness.
Silicon chip leader Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) is expected to realize an operating revenue of 40 billion yuan to 42 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 109.90% - 120.39%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 3.8-4.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 248.95% - 285.68%. Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) said that the company's performance increased significantly, mainly due to the accelerated improvement of the company's semiconductor photovoltaic 210 product capacity, the leading production efficiency of a single furnace in the industry, the significant increase of silicon wafer yield and product a rate, and the improvement of unit product gross profit to a great extent.
Different from the pre increase in the performance of upstream manufacturers, affected by the global epidemic, the dual control and power restriction policy of energy consumption and the shortage of silicon supply, the performance of many listed companies of photovoltaic cells and modules changed from profit to loss in 2021.
As of the closing on February 9, a total of 9 listed companies in the concept sector of A-share photovoltaic cell modules have disclosed the performance forecast for 2021, and only 30% of the companies expect the lower limit of net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies to achieve year-on-year growth in 2021.
Among them, due to the technology and product advantages of 210 large-size battery modules, the market share of the company's photovoltaic products has been further improved. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company will be RMB 1.72 billion-2.05 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 39.92% - 66.76%. It is estimated that the communication network will suffer a loss of -0020.9 billion yuan in advance, with the largest loss of -0020.1 billion yuan in 2021.
The performance loss is closely related to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials and the sharp rise in sea freight. Taking Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) as an example, the company expects to achieve a net loss attributable to shareholders of listed companies of RMB 220 million to RMB 280 million in 2021, and a net loss of RMB 270 million to RMB 330 million after deducting non recurring profits and losses in 2021, which is from profit to loss compared with the same period of the previous year. Battery manufacturer Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) said that in 2021, due to the continuous rise in the prices of upstream raw materials, especially silicon materials and silicon chips, and the rise in the price of battery chips was less than that of raw materials, the gross profit margin of battery sales decreased.
major groups since this year
the total bidding of photovoltaic modules exceeds 39gw
In recent years, relevant departments have continuously encouraged and supported the green and intelligent development of photovoltaic industry.
According to the national development and Reform Commission on February 10, the two departments recently issued the opinions on improving the institutional mechanisms and policies and measures for green and low-carbon energy transformation. The opinions proposed to promote the construction of an energy supply system dominated by clean and low-carbon energy. Focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas, accelerate the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic power generation bases, upgrade and transform the existing coal-fired power units in the region, explore and establish a mechanism for coordination between the sending and receiving ends to provide regulation for the transmission of new energy power, and support the construction, combination and development of new energy power.
So far this year, the total bidding of photovoltaic modules of major groups has exceeded 39gw. Among them, the centralized procurement scale of photovoltaic modules of Huadian Group in 2022 was as high as 15gw, double that of 2021. Since January, 7.5GW components of four central enterprises, namely PetroChina, Three Gorges power (Anhui), China Southern Power Grid Jiangsu and China Nuclear Power (Nanjing), have been intensively purchased and calibrated. Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) and the centralized procurement of components with national power investment up to 12gw have been announced. On January 26, the State Power Investment Corporation opened the bid for centralized purchase of 4.5gw components. A total of 27 enterprises in seven bid sections participated in the quotation.
On January 28, the National Energy Administration released the construction and operation of national photovoltaic power generation in 2021. In 2021, 54.88 million kilowatts of photovoltaic capacity was newly installed in China, the largest annual production over the years, including 25.6 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power stations and 29.28 million kilowatts of distributed photovoltaic. By the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation will be 306 million KW.
According to the data of the whole Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) consumption monitoring and early warning center, the national photovoltaic utilization rate reached 98% from January to December 2021, and the photovoltaic utilization rate of all provinces was basically above 97%. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) the research report points out that as the installed demand bottoms out and picks up, the industrial chain is expected to usher in a non light off-season and improve the profit margin in the first quarter of 2022. In addition, the annual installed demand is expected to exceed 75gw due to the mitigation of supply and cost bottlenecks.
