In the spring of the year of the tiger, the head paper enterprises set off the first round of price increases.
At the end of January and the beginning of February, head paper enterprises including Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) , app (golden light paper industry), Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) issued price increase letters one after another. For this round of price increase, many paper enterprises said that it was related to the recent sharp rise in the price of raw material pulp. However, during the interview, the reporter of Securities Daily learned that due to the general recovery of orders after the festival, the price increase of paper enterprises has not been significantly implemented for the time being.
In an interview with Securities Daily, Wang Meiting, a researcher at the Bank Of China Limited(601988) Research Institute, said that at present, the raw materials, electric power and chemicals used by paper enterprises are rising or the price remains high, and the pressure of environmental protection continues to be prominent. These factors have led to the continuous driving force of paper price rise, "When the expectations of manufacturers in the market are relatively consistent, it will be transmitted to the terminal price." Wang Meiting said.
supply and demand work together
raising the price of paper is the general trend
According to the price increase letter previously issued by the head paper enterprises, this round of price increase mainly involves the copy paper in the cultural paper, and the price increase ranges from 100 yuan / ton to 200 yuan / ton, and many enterprises said in the price adjustment letter that they would adjust the product price in March according to the situation.
"There is a big background for the current round of price increase of paper enterprises. The prices of global industrial manufactured products have generally risen in the past year. There has been a sharp rise in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, including energy, primary raw materials and parts. Many midstream manufacturers, including paper enterprises, have also begun to raise prices." Wang Meiting told the reporter of Securities Daily.
Zhang Yan, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang information industry, also introduced to the reporter of Securities Daily that recently, the price of raw materials in the paper industry is at a high level, and the profits of many paper mills are below the profit and loss line, forming a great cost pressure, so they have a strong willingness to raise prices.
However, Wang Meiting said that in the fourth quarter of 2021, the national economic situation was relatively difficult, and the industrial demand and consumer demand were relatively weak. In the paper market, the weakness of these demand will lower the demand for important varieties and make the paper price low.
The strong willingness of paper enterprises to raise prices is playing a fierce game with the weak downstream.
During the interview, an agent who did not want to be named told the reporter of Securities Daily that he repeatedly received price adjustment letters from paper enterprises in 2021. Only in the face of the slightly weak demand side in the fourth quarter of last year, the price increase of paper enterprises was blocked and the price transmission was not smooth.
According to the recent research report data of Huachuang securities, the average price of double offset paper increased by only 1.04% month on month in the fourth quarter of last year, and the average price of coated paper decreased by 1.58% month on month. Although the price increase was blocked, it is worth noting that the price of cultural paper increased slightly month by month.
As for the price increase of paper enterprises in early February, analyst Zhang Yan told the reporter of Securities Daily that at present, due to the general recovery of orders after the Spring Festival, the demand has not kept up, and the implementation of cultural paper orders is not very significant.
However, as the economic expectation continues to pick up and the economic recovery momentum is relatively good, many institutions have made the judgment of "Fundamentals hitting the bottom" when analyzing the recent situation of the paper industry, and believe that the profit per ton of cultural and chemical paper will improve month by month with the slight rise of paper price and the easing of cost pressure month by month.
March will be the peak season for the bidding of teaching materials in spring. Many institutions believe that this is expected to boost the demand for cultural paper and make the inventory of cultural paper more reasonable. Due to the optimistic downstream demand and smooth price transmission, the probability of price increase and landing of paper mills will also be large at that time. "Of course, the bidding and production of teaching materials in March is only an important seasonal factor. Under the joint force of supply and demand, the price increase of paper will be the general trend." Wang Meiting said.
the industry is coming out of its trough
expect performance to improve month by month
With the arrival of the annual report season, as an important part of the manufacturing and consumer industries, the performance of the paper industry in 2021 and the prediction of the next trend have also attracted the attention of the market.
According to the data of China stock market news choice, as of February 9, 2022, 10 of the 22 A-share listed companies whose industry index is papermaking and paper products industry have disclosed the performance forecast of 2021, of which Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) , Zhejiang Jingxing Paper Joint Stock Co.Ltd(002067) , Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600103) , Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) , Qifeng New Material Co.Ltd(002521) 6 companies have achieved the performance forecast and slight increase, The two companies Xiamen Anne Co.Ltd(002235) and Yibinpaperindustryco.Ltd(600793) turned losses in 2021, Guangdong Songyang Recycle Resources Co.Ltd(603863) was the pre reduction of performance, and Mcc Meili Cloud Computing Industry Investment Co.Ltd(000815) announced the first loss of performance.
"It can be said that the whole paper industry in 2021 is mainly affected by the shortage of raw material supply and production capacity. The supply and demand are in a relatively tight balance. The overall situation of the paper industry this year will also be relatively optimistic." Wenbai, chief economist of China Daily, told IPG.
In the interview, for the development of China's paper industry in 2021, especially the situation faced in the fourth quarter of last year, many paper enterprises and industry analysts used the metaphor of "industry trough period" and "darkest hour", and said that it has gradually come out and shows signs of improvement month by month.
Analysts in the paper industry of business society believe that with the leading paper enterprises issuing the price increase letter of white cardboard in the Spring Festival, the demand may increase due to the increase of downstream construction after superposition years. It is expected that the price of white cardboard may be strong in the first quarter.
From the perspective of the global supply and demand structure of wood pulp production capacity, some industry analysts believe that the contradiction between supply and demand in the pulp market still exists, and the price of wood pulp may still maintain a strong operation. "The later trend also needs to be determined by the mitigation of public health events and international shipping." Zhang Yan, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang information industry, told the reporter of Securities Daily.
In addition, Wang Meiting also said that since the economic expectation this year is relatively better than that in the second half of last year and will continue to drive consumption, China's demand for paper products may further increase this year. In addition, environmental protection factors will not be relaxed. On the whole, the terminal price of paper products has strong support. However, as the cost will also rise by a large margin, the profit growth of paper enterprises will be lower than that of paper prices.
