Current investment tips:
The equipment manufacturing industry has entered the post epidemic era, and the overall performance of the sector has increased significantly year-on-year in 21 years. Among the 214 companies in the machinery industry that have announced the performance forecast of the annual report in 2021: 1) 142 companies have increased or reversed their losses in advance, accounting for about 66%. Among the 119 companies to be added in advance, the growth rate of the predicted net profit center of 43 companies is more than 100%, the growth rate of the predicted net profit center of 48 companies is between 50% – 100%, and the growth rate of the predicted net profit center of 28 companies is between 0% – 50%; 23 companies achieved turnaround; 2) 72 companies’ performance pre reduction, continued loss or first loss, accounting for 34%. Among them, 25 companies are expected to reduce their performance, 20 companies are expected to continue to suffer losses, and 27 companies are expected to suffer the first loss. In the past 20 years, 247 companies in the machinery industry published the annual report performance forecast, of which 162 companies increased their performance or reversed their losses, accounting for about 66%, which is the same as that in the past 21 years. The performance center of 214 companies that announced the performance forecast for 21 years totaled 36.58 billion yuan. Based on the actual performance of 17.277 billion yuan in 20 years, it increased by 112% year-on-year in 21 years; Based on its actual performance of 16.741 billion yuan in 19 years, the CAGR in 19-21 years is 48%. On the whole, the overall performance forecast of the mechanical equipment sector is bright.
Lithium battery equipment: 2022 is still a big year for lithium battery production expansion, and equipment manufacturers continue to benefit from global capacity expansion. 2021 is the turning point for China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile from policy driven to market driven. In 2021, the sales volume of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile was 3520500, with a year-on-year increase of 157.48% and a penetration rate of 13.40%. The Ministry of industry and information technology proposed that by 2025, the sales volume of new vehicles of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile will account for about 25%, and there is huge room for improvement in the future. The accelerated popularization of new energy vehicles has brought strong demand for power batteries, and many battery manufacturers have successively increased the production capacity planning target in 2025: honeycomb 600gwh; AVIC lithium battery 500gwh; Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) 300GWh。 Chinese lithium battery equipment enterprises are expected to rapidly increase orders by virtue of their advantages of being good at whole line customization and high cost performance. At the same time, industrial innovations such as power exchange mode and CTP technology are expected to drive new demand growth points.
Recommended: Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) , Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) , Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) , Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) ; Suggested attention: Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) .
Photovoltaic equipment: technological change remains, and attention is paid to the innovation dividend sector. Looking forward to the demand for photovoltaic equipment in 2022, on the one hand, with the high price of silicon materials in the upstream falling, it is expected to stimulate the large-scale demand in the downstream, especially at the module end, which will drive the boom of automation equipment at the module end upward. On the other hand, there are still technological changes in silicon wafers, batteries and modules, and the internal driving force of cost reduction and efficiency increase in the photovoltaic industry chain is still strong. We can pay attention to the potential industrial opportunities brought by technological innovation. It is suggested to pay attention to: Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , Jiangyin Haida Rubber And Plastic Co.Ltd(300320) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , J.S.Corrugating Machinery Co.Ltd(000821) , Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) .
Wind power equipment: the trend of large-scale wind turbines is clear, and offshore wind power is accelerated. 2021 is the turning point of China’s wind power industry policy, and 2022 will be an important window for the acceleration of localization and large-scale wind power equipment. Localization and large-scale promote the decline of system cost, which further stimulates the rise of IRR of power generation projects and accelerates the arrival of the era of land and sea parity. In the whole process, wind power components with stable competition pattern and strong pricing ability are the main beneficiaries. It is suggested to pay attention to: Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) , Himile Mechanical Science And Technology (Shandong) Co.Ltd(002595) , Fujian Nanping Sun Cable Co.Ltd(002300) , Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) , etc.
Laser: China’s industrial chain is becoming more and more perfect, paying attention to the inflection point of prosperity during the year. 1) Upstream: with good product performance and comprehensive cost performance, the domestic operation control system has basically realized the import substitution of medium and low power. In the future, the Chinese company represented by Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) is expected to make further breakthroughs in the high power market; 2) Midstream: the price war trend of high-power laser remains unchanged, stimulating the new demand for equipment and the increase of stock market penetration. Head laser enterprises expand from cutting to cleaning, welding, new energy and other professional fields with higher gross profit margin; 3) Downstream: the development of photovoltaic and new energy vehicles has brought broad market space to laser processing equipment. It is expected that the demand boom of laser equipment brought by the expansion of photovoltaic lithium battery production will last for at least 3-5 years. Recommendations: Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) , Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) , Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) , Wuhan Raycus Fiber Laser Technologies Co.Ltd(300747) ; Suggested attention: Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) .
Oil service equipment: the international oil price has reached a new high and is optimistic about the new oil service track CCUs 1) Driving force 1: at present, the international crude oil price has continuously exceeded the high oil price since 2015. Considering the long cycle of increasing reserves and production in the oil industry, the current tight supply situation will continue, and the oil price is expected to remain high, which will strongly stimulate the capital expenditure in 2022 and drive the boom of the oilfield service and equipment industry. 2) Driving force 2: ccus-eor, that is, CO2 capture oil displacement technology, can solve the problem of carbon emission reduction of coal-fired power generation, improve the oil recovery of surrounding oilfields, achieve the dual benefits of carbon storage + oil and gas production increase, and open new opportunities for the development of oil service industry. The implementation of CCUs project will bring great equipment and engineering needs, mainly including compressors, pumps, towers, storage tanks and temperature control equipment; Traditional oil service and equipment enterprises are expected to give full play to their business synergy advantages in back-end oil displacement applications. Recommended: Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) , Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) ; It is suggested to pay attention to: Tong Petrotech Corp(300164) , China Oil Hbp Science & Technology.Ltd(002554) .
Scientific instruments: with the great development of scientific and technological innovation, scientific research instruments welcome opportunities. 1) Scientific research, instruments first. In December 2021, the order of the president of the people’s Republic of China was issued, which clearly mentioned that restrictions should not be imposed on the grounds of commercial performance and policy support should be given, so that domestic instruments ushered in development opportunities. 2) The space is vast, and the penetration of domestic brands is accelerated. In 2020, the global market scale of laboratory analytical instruments was US $63.75 billion, and the Chinese market scale was about US $9.8 billion, with a compound growth rate of 16% from 2015 to 2020. Chinese and foreign enterprises focus on the differentiated niche market, the comprehensive layout of foreign leading manufacturers, and domestic brands adopt the focus strategy to gradually penetrate into the high-end field. 3) Stone from another mountain: the scientific instrument track breeds large companies, and overseas leading enterprises expand through mergers and acquisitions, from subdivided leaders to comprehensive giants. Resume the growth path of overseas companies. In terms of market strategy, overseas enterprises adopt M & A expansion strategy, and the R & D investment of international giants is stable. Recommended: Suzhou Sushi Testing Group Co.Ltd(300416) .
Suggestions: Donghua Testing Technology Co.Ltd(300354) , Hefei Kewell Power System Co.Ltd(688551) , Guangzhou Hexin Instrument Co.Ltd(688622) , dingyang technology, Beijing Labtech Instruments Co.Ltd(688056) , Focused Photonics (Hangzhou) Inc(300203) , Anhui Wanyi Science And Technology Co.Ltd(688600) .
Machine vision: three factors jointly drive the rapid growth of machine vision system industry. According to the data of machine vision development white paper 2021, it is expected that China’s machine vision market space is expected to exceed 39 billion yuan in 2025. 1) Long term factors: the aging population and the continuous rise of labor costs may force manufacturing enterprises to continuously increase investment in automation and intelligence, expand the depth of automation and intelligence, and stimulate the demand for machine vision equipment; 2) Medium term factors: national policy support + technology renewal demand will drive the localization of machine vision. Machine vision technology mainly replaces manual visual inspection, which can flexibly control the production process and reduce the loss caused by human errors. Its application in production links has been gradually deepened, and the encouragement of intelligent manufacturing policies in China’s industrial manufacturing will also enhance the development opportunities of machine vision industry; 3) Short term factors: fixed asset investment in manufacturing industry is expected to pick up, which will accelerate the growth of machine vision market.
Recommended: Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) , Jutze Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(300802) ; Suggested attention: Suzhou Tztek Technology Co.Ltd(688003) .
Other industries: structural opportunities often exist, focusing on the leaders in subdivided fields. Recommendations: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) etc. It is suggested to pay attention to: Shanghai Hugong Electric Group Co.Ltd(603131) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) , Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) .
Risk warning: there are certain uncertainties in macro policies; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; There is uncertainty in the external environment.
