Current investment tips:
The export growth rate of the three major white electricity is differentiated, and the small electricity in the kitchen gradually digests the pressure of high base. According to the data of the industry, the domestic sales of air conditioners were + 15.29million, a year-on-year decrease of + 15.501%, with a year-on-year increase of + 19.507%, according to the industry data. In 2021, the sales volume of refrigerators decreased slightly by 0.4% year-on-year, and the decline of H2 narrowed quarter by quarter; The sales volume of washing machines increased by 4% year-on-year in 2021. In terms of exports, affected by the globalization of the epidemic, overseas demand remains strong.
In 2021, the sales volume of air and ice washing increased by 11.0% / 5.5% / 19.7% respectively year-on-year. Since the second half of 2021, the growth rate of the three major white electricity categories has been differentiated, and the export volume of H2 air conditioner and washing machine has increased by 4.7% and 10.9% respectively year-on-year; Affected by the high base of H2 in the same period in 2020, the refrigerator decreased by 9.4% year-on-year, but the overall absolute value remained at a high level.
White electricity and parts: the average price continues to rise, and the demand is expected to usher in an upward inflection point. In December 2021, the average market price of air conditioning was 4198 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10%, continuing the upward trend. Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) : in 2021, the market share of Midea's cumulative shipments increased by 1.4 PCTs to 35.4% year-on-year, ranking first in the industry, and the annual revenue / performance is expected to be + 17% / + 6% year-on-year respectively; Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) : the company's share of domestic shipments in 2021 increased by 0.5 PCTs to 37.4% year-on-year, ranking first in domestic shipments. It is expected that the annual revenue will be + 5% year-on-year and the net profit will be + 5%; Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) : the company's domestic and foreign sales of air conditioners increased by 17% in 2021, of which the domestic and foreign sales increased by 16% / 18% respectively year-on-year; The cumulative retail volume / market share was 36.07% and 41.10% respectively. We expect the company's revenue to be about + 10% year-on-year and profit to be + 44% year-on-year in 2021.
Chef electricity: the performance of e-commerce channels is bright, and the emerging kitchen electricity continues to be booming. According to ovicloud, the retail volume / volume of online cigarette machines in 2021 was - 4.1% / + 5.9% year-on-year respectively; Offline volume / volume was - 8.9% / - 0.5% year-on-year respectively. Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) online retail has a good performance, with rapid growth in emerging categories. It is expected that the annual revenue / performance will be + 25% / - 19% year-on-year. According to the prediction of ovicloud, in 2021, the omni-channel retail volume of the integrated stove industry will be 22.12 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, and the retail volume will be 2.947 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 23.9%. We expect the annual revenue growth rate of Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co.Ltd(002677) to be + 27%, the year-on-year revenue growth rate of Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) to be + 44%, the year-on-year performance growth rate of Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) to be + 4753%, and the year-on-year revenue and performance growth rate of Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) to be + 61% / + 45% respectively.
Small household appliances and electrician lighting: the pressure of high base of small electricity in the kitchen is gradually digested, and the iteration of new cleaning products is accelerated. Kitchen small electricity experienced a one-year adjustment cycle, the pressure of high base number was gradually digested, and the iteration of new products of cleaning personal care appliances was accelerated. We expect the annual performance of Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) to be + 5% year-on-year; The annual revenue and profit of Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) were + 28% / + 12% year on year, and the annual revenue performance of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) were + 76% / + 216% respectively; We expect the annual revenue performance of Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) to be + 46% / + 80% respectively.
Key investment points: since May 2021, the price increase of raw materials has gradually slowed down. Taking copper as an example, the price increases of 2021q1 / Q2 are 12.2% / 4.3% respectively. The price of 21h2 is stable and the marginal improvement is gradually obvious; Aluminum and stainless steel prices have fallen significantly since Q4, with a cumulative decline of 10.0% / 14.8%. At the same time, due to the lack of shipping capacity caused by repeated epidemics, the shipping freight rate has increased significantly. At present, the overall shipping freight rate level is at a historical high. We expect that the subsequent stabilization and decline of raw material prices, the recovery of international capacity and the decline of freight rates will drive the improvement of costs with strong certainty. We sort out the following four main investment lines: 1) weak real estate related uncertainty is strong, and policy fluctuations bring game elasticity. Recommendations: Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) (dealer system reform), Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) (Mofei brand + export of small kitchen appliances). 2) After the price of raw materials stabilizes and falls, the profitability of the sector is expected to continue to repair. Recommendations: Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) (Casati high-end brand + self profit improvement), Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (tob business value revaluation), Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) (central air conditioning faucet + thermal management business layout of combined meter, three electric acceleration new energy vehicles + undervalued value). 3) Product innovation has accelerated to create new demand, and new consumption remains high. Recommendations: Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (Tianke brand explosion + export ODM), Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) (quasi first-line leader of integrated stove), Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) (leader of integrated stove industry + rapid development of e-commerce business), Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) (intelligent micro investment + overseas market development), Shenzhen Breo Technology Co.Ltd(688793) (Portable Massage small electric tap + accelerated expansion of offline stores).
4) independent brands are rising at sea, and the trend of global expansion is becoming more and more obvious. Recommendation: JS global life (kitchen small electricity + cleaning appliances double high prosperity track + global output of American Culture), Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) (export of independent brands).
Risk warning: price fluctuation of raw materials; Fluctuation of RMB exchange rate; Fluctuations in international logistics capacity and freight costs.
