Current investment tips:
Companies that predict that the profit growth rate of 21q4 is higher than 50% include Netease (184%), Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) (100%), Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) (96%), Beijing United Information Technology Co.Ltd(603613) (87%), Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) (58%); Companies with a growth rate of 0% – 50% include: Guangdong South New Media Co.Ltd(300770) (33%) and G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) (19%); Companies with a growth rate of – 20% – 0% include: Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) (- 3%), Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Company Limited(002841) (- 7%), Tencent Holdings (- 9%), Ireader Technology Co.Ltd(603533) (- 16%); Companies with a growth rate of less than – 20% include:
Citic Press Corporation(300788) (-51%), Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) (-76%), beep Kwai Li (-175%), Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) (-255%), Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) (-267%), fast hand (-745%).
The overall fundamentals of Internet media are still at the bottom stage. Looking back on the past 21 years, the overall growth rate of video and advertising in Pan entertainment has slowed down compared with the first half of the year (the reserve of long video projects is affected by supervision, and the growth of short video slows down with the increase of penetration; in addition to the change of advertising base, it is affected by macro weakness, and the demand of education and consumer advertisers is lower than that in the first half of the year). Game companies have different rhythms due to the launch of new products and profit release, Although the policy has brought about a downturn in fundamentals in the short term, it is expected that the game has warmed up with the launch of new products and the promotion of going to sea. Although film and television theaters achieved a high growth rate compared with the same period last year, the epidemic has repeatedly not returned to the level of previous years; Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Company Limited(002841) overseas business performed well. The main business of Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) has improved in 21 years, and the progress of overseas NFT platform is expected in 22 years. The industrial Internet performed well and Beijing United Information Technology Co.Ltd(603613) continued its high growth trend.
Game: the new product cycle is coming, looking forward to the release of a new batch of edition numbers, and see the growth of going to sea in the medium term. The 21q3 policy continues to shorten the online time of juvenile online games, but the proportion of juvenile game flow contribution is low, which has a limited impact on the performance. The basic leading factors of short-term game companies are the launch of new products and the rhythm of profit release. China’s independently developed games strengthen the “going out”, and the income of game going to sea is expected to rise to a higher level. In the second half of the year, the inflection point of short-term operation of major game companies has reached, and the performance of some companies is under short-term pressure due to transformation and other reasons. The short-term improvement trend is expected to continue to the first half of the year: the blockbuster product “hero alliance mobile game” launched by Tencent 21q4, as a big dau game, has a longer delay period and is expected to make a more obvious contribution to the performance of 22 years; Netease officially opened the strongest product cycle in recent three years, and Q4 continued the rhythm of Q3 strong profit release; Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) Q4 maintain the sweet period of performance release, and overseas is expected to become the core driving force of profit growth in 22 years; G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) the product has excellent long-term operation ability, and Q4 continues its steady performance; Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) the game personnel are optimized, the performance enters the pressure period, and the performance of overseas products and the distribution of version numbers are observed in the follow-up.
Video: the pessimistic expectation has been digested for a long time, paying attention to the change of competition pattern; Short video has entered the user refinement operation period. Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) affected by the structural adjustment of three subsidiaries, e-commerce business investment and the rhythm of content launch, Q4 profit is lower than expected, and the chaos rectification of the rice circle has formed the industry’s short-term pessimism, but it has been digested for a long time, which is conducive to the concentration of the industry share to the state-owned new media platform that plays the leading role of youth value in the long run. The artist rectification is conducive to the further optimization of the content cost structure.
BiliBili has bright user indicators, and its revenue maintains rapid growth. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes of cost side; It is expected that Kwai Q4 advertising business will continue to grow faster than expected, and this will continue to be realized.
Advertising: advertisers in education and other industries have reduced investment and superimposed weak consumption data. 21q4 advertising continues to be under pressure. It is expected that 22q2 will gradually improve, but some media are still expected to outperform the market. There are very few media with the rise of new domestic brands, the formation of media networks and the ability to seize the minds of users, Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) is expected to deal with short-term cycle fluctuations by improving sales capacity and quickly looking for growth industry segments.
Medium and long term key recommendations: Tencent holdings, Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) , NetEase, Kwai tech, Beijing United Information Technology Co.Ltd(603613) , Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Company Limited(002841) , Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413)
Risk tip: the product performance is lower than the expected risk, and the macro-economy is further downward risk.
