Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MFL and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted. After the year of the tiger got off to a good start, although it ushered in a continuous rebound, there was a large differentiation between the indexes, the structural market was very obvious, and the quality of the market rebound still needs to be verified. With the support and boost of many parties, the trend of the market for the better has not changed, and the restless market in spring is still there, but the trend market is difficult, structural opportunities or the main tone.
Two trading days have passed since the year of the tiger. From the previous two trading days, although the Shanghai index rebounded continuously and seemed to be in danger, the gem continued to dip to the bottom and ushered in a sharp decline yesterday. The cumulative maximum decline in the second round of adjustment was more than 20%. It is obvious that it has entered the bear market of the technical line. Dragged down by the gem, the Shenzhen composite index also fell in shock.
Judging from the trend of the first two days of the year of the tiger, the market revealed several characteristics, which may be the focus of the market in the first quarter:
First, the structural market under market differentiation; From the index, the Shanghai index rose sharply on the first day and reversed the attack on the second day, which is obviously the strongest performance of the three indexes. In the process of growth stocks falling, the gem fell seriously, and the cumulative adjustment range in the continuous decline exceeded 20%, which has entered a technical bear market. The differentiation of the three indexes also indicates that even if there is a market, there is little chance of trend, and more is a structural market;
Secondly, the advantages of the undervalued sector are obvious, and there is still a phased market; From before the Spring Festival to after the Spring Festival, the rise of the Shanghai stock index is mainly driven by large finance and large cycle. Of course, the boost of large infrastructure under steady growth is basically policy stimulus and monetary Panasonic valuation repair market, while science and technology stocks such as new energy fell continuously, mainly killing valuation as a whole. Therefore, the periodic valuation repair market should be the main tone, which is mainly due to the boost under the start of the monetary easing cycle and the expectation of no rise. However, the sustainability remains to be seen. After all, the strength and boosting effect of this round of easing are estimated to be limited. After repairing the market, we still need to track high growth varieties;
Third, the bottom of market sentiment gradually appears, and the individual stock market gradually opens; In the last week before the Spring Festival, the index fell continuously, and there were general declines for many times. It is normal for the number of declines to exceed 4000. However, since the year of the tiger, even if the index fell sharply, the number of rising stocks in the two cities is more than that of falling stocks as a whole. This change is particularly important, at least indicating that the current market sentiment is picking up. After continuous adjustment of individual stocks, there is little downward space, and even many stocks are no longer new lows. This has a great effect on the support of the index and the improvement of trading opportunities;
Therefore, the continuous “good start” of the year of the tiger actually reveals a certain signal, or provides reference value for the strategic allocation in the first quarter. On the whole, although the year of the tiger has a good start, the quality of the rebound has yet to be verified. The market is still falling repeatedly, and the structural market is still obvious. However, with the policy support of steady growth and the boost of loose monetary funds, coupled with the rebound in sentiment during the Spring Festival, the phased bottom of the market is expected to form, and the repair market may have been opened. Continue to be optimistic about the spring market, which is still a good time for bargain hunting.
