The implementation of policies was slow, the fundamentals were weak, the overall market callback, and the decline of institutions was small. The signal of steady growth was clear, but the actual policy implementation was slow. The overall market fell in 2022 / 1. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 7.6% in the whole month, and the average yield of active partial equity public offering funds was – 7.8%, which was basically the same as the overall performance of the market. In the growth and value portfolio constructed by Soochow strategy, only the high dividend strategy achieved excess returns.
The high dividend strategy won, with an excess return of 7% in January. Generally speaking, in the period of decline and shock consolidation after the sharp rise of the market, such as 2011-2013 and 2016-2019, the high dividend strategy gives play to the characteristics of “bear market umbrella”, and the excess return is obvious. In January, the market fell as a whole. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the market defensive sentiment dominated, and the expectation of stable growth was high. The high dividend portfolio with real estate, banking and mining as the main constituent stocks obviously outperformed.
In the theme index, the old infrastructure led the rise. From the perspective of policy, we focused on the theme of old and new infrastructure and real estate chain. The old infrastructure benefited from the market’s expectation of stable growth policy. The excess return in January was 6%, of which the strong stocks China Railway Group Limited(601390) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) rose by 7%; In addition, under the policy game, the excess return of the broad real estate chain including banks in January was 5%, which also outperformed the market, of which Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) rose by 10%, leading the increase.
Growth strategy 1: secondary new shares (secondary new without changing face & quantitative secondary new). Applicable environment: small market value is dominant. In addition, in the volatile market, the quantitative sub new strategy combination performs better. The top gainers in January: Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) (the second new without changing face); Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) (Quantitative new).
Growth strategy 2: tenfold stocks (individual stock portfolio & fund manager portfolio). Applicable environment of individual stock portfolio: the overall market continues to rise; Applicable environment of fund manager portfolio: the large market value is dominant, and the excess return continues to rise after 2016. Top gainers in January Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) (individual stock portfolio); Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) (fund manager portfolio).
Value based strategy 1: high dividend. Applicable environment: the period of decline and shock after the sharp rise of the market. The top gainers in January were Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Risesun Real Estate Development Co.Ltd(002146) , Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Daqin Railway Co.Ltd(601006) .
Value based strategy 2: undervaluation (PEG & pb-roe). Peg strategy optimization, applicable environment: the overall market is upward, and the performance is relatively better when the small market value is dominant; Pb-roe applicable environment: bear market or shock market. Top gainers in January: Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) (PEG); Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) 、 Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600248) (PB-ROE)。
Risk tip: the enterprise’s profit is less than expected, and the screening criteria may fail under the new market conditions.
